2 Slam-Dunk Zero RB Targets❗️

SEVEN WEEKS of football-free commercials start RIGHT NOW! 🤣🥲

What’s in store:

• The Bills lose Nyheim Hines for 2023 😔 One of the best pass-catching backs won’t see the field this year – what does that mean for the rest of the Bills backfield?

• F**k them picks! 🤬 At least, picking RBs early in drafts. Faraz has two zero-RB targets for your fantasy squad that are currently going back-to-back in Underdog drafts.

• If you like scoring points, draft these players 🥇 Zach gives us a few of his favorite upside selections in drafts this year.

• Can Eric Bienemy turn Antonio Gibson into Jerick McKinnon lite?After a down season in 2022, a change at OC could be just what Gibson needs.

• Bills RB Nyheim Hines suffers freak knee injury, expected to miss the 2023 NFL season

  • After being acquired by the Bills via trade at last year’s in-season deadline, Hines made less of an impact in the Buffalo backfield than he did on special teams as a returner (he scored two touchdowns in Week 18). With Singletary gone for Houston, Hines could have stepped into a potentially larger role in the receiving game in 2023, but he’ll be forced to spend the year recovering from the injury. Tom Pelissero reports that the injury occurred in a “stationary jet ski accident”, with another driver crashing their vehicle into Hines resulting in the injury. The fantasy impact leaves James Cook with a larger workload than originally anticipated, opening the door for a breakout from the second-year back.

• Jimmy Garoppolo poised to enter training camp fully healthy

  • After reports swirled this offseason of Garoppolo’s failed physical early in the year, unnecessary doubt was cast on his availability for the 2023 season. Any uncertainty with Garoppolo’s health should be put to rest, with the Las Vegas Review-Journal confirming that the quarterback will have “no restrictions” entering Raiders training camp. Garoppolo will head up an offense with plenty of weapons, featuring Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in the receiving game and Josh Jacobs on the ground (assuming he signs his franchise tag). Jimmy G should be in position to play his brand of football with the Raiders – that is, to simply take care of the ball and distribute it well. He’ll likely finish as a mid-to-low QB2.

• When the ground game won’t pay, Josh Jacobs takes to the skies!

  • In another piece of Raiders news, Tom Pelissero reports that RB Josh Jacobs was spotted leaving Las Vegas at an airport and it appears that he “doesn’t plan to return anytime soon.” At this point, it seems as though Jacobs is content to bide his time as contract negotiations remain at a stalemate between himself and the Raiders, and the holdout has begun. While the level of concern for Jacobs’ availability for the 2023 season will continue to rise as we get closer to the regular season, the price will simultaneously continue to fall in drafts, making Jacobs a potential value down the line depending on how quickly the situation is resolved. It’s hard to imagine both Saquon Barkley and Jacobs sitting out enough time in 2023 – if any – to hurt their fantasy value, but as has been the case so far this offseason, the situation is worth keeping a close eye on.

• Rachaad White - RB25, 82.1 (7-8 Turn)

  • Everyone’s assuming that the Bucs are going to add another RB to the fold, but Tom Brady isn’t there to convince any of these RBs to do that anymore. It seems like it’s going to Rachaad White’s show - and we might see him on all three downs.

  • He’s definitely the pass catcher, and catching 50 balls as a rookie while sharing the load with another RB who was actually the primary pass catcher out of the backfield says a lot - Fournette had 73 catches last year.

  • Now, he wasn’t overly efficient last year, and I will say that he’s only a target in PPR leagues - and you’re targeting him as someone who will get opportunity on a bad offense. So you’re drafting him for volume - but we’ve seen RBs who get volume on bad offenses still have the potential to finish as RB1s. Baker Mayfield targeted CMC at an extremely high rate last year.

  • Rachaad White was also an extremely good pass catching RB prospect coming out of college. He had the highest yards/touch of the 2022 RB class, and had elite yards/route run numbers. So if you can draft an every down back as the RB25… who will be getting opportunity like a Top-12 guy, who can take a step forward in efficiency, I’ll take that shot, especially if I’m going zero RB.

• James Conner - RB26, 83.2 (7-8 Turn)

  • Similar thing with James Conner as Rachaad White. Conner’s definitely had his share of injury issues, but Conner was 10th among all RBs last year in weighted opportunity. Yet he’s going off the board as the RB28…. And in the 2nd half of the season, when the Cardinals were hot trash without Kyler Murray, Conner was the RB4 in fantasy points/game.

  • He was a RB1 in FPPG last year guys - he was the RB10. Colt McCoy only targeted DeAndre Hopkins more than Conner last year. And Hopkins is gone now. They have no one good behind Conner this year. I’m expecting a lot of negative game scripts, so Conner should be able to rack up ~5 catches/game. You can draft this dude in the 7th or 8th round. Strictly a volume play, and someone who’s going to be very involved in the receiving game.

• Calvin Ridley (WR16, 3rd Round)

  • When I look at Calvin Ridley’s price, it feels pretty damn high. But I’m perfectly ok paying the third round price for a receiver that has overall Top-5 upside at the WR position.

  • In his last 33 games played, dating all the way back to the 2019 season, Ridley has 21 games in which he garnered at least 8 targets. He had less than 6 targets in a game just four times in those 33 games. So we know he’s going to demand targets regardless of who he’s competing with, because he did so even running alongside Julio Jones in 2019 and 2020. You know, pre-washed Julio.

  • Now he’s on an offense with a quarterback who I would argue figures to be better than Matt Ryan was in those years, with a teammate in Christian Kirk who will demand targets, but not like Julio Jones did. Ridley has a history of producing in more difficult circumstances in his career, and now he’s the clear WR1 on a good Jaguars offense.

  • There’s no doubt in my mind that Ridley can reclaim his status as a top-flight fantasy WR1 in 2023, and he’s probably my favorite upside pick in drafts right now.

• Cam Akers (RB21, 6th Round)

  • I know, we’ve fallen for the Cam Akers upside promise plenty of times before. But what we didn’t have going into those seasons when he burned us was any sort of evidence proving that he could capitalize on his situation. We got that evidence at the end of 2022, albeit in a small amount.

  • He squeaked in an overall RB1 weekly finish in Week 16, and from Week 13 on, he was third in the NFL in rush attempts, 1st in rushing yards, and tied for first with Austin Ekeler in rushing touchdowns in that span. And that was on an absolutely horrific offense devoid of Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford, who are both back for the 2023 season.

  • The offseason hype parallels what we were hearing about Akers last year at this time, but it feels much more warranted now that Akers has something concrete to build upon heading into this season.

  • And before anyone asks about Sony Michel, I’m not concerned. He might vulture a touchdown here or there at the goal line, but Akers will be just fine even if Michel grabs five on the year – and that’s a high projection.

  • In the sixth round, is the floor low for Akers? Perhaps. But if Akers can establish a stranglehold on the lead role and produce like he did at the end of last season, he can sneak into the Top-12.

• Russell Wilson (QB18, 12th Round)

  • I get it, he had an abysmal year last year and the year before in Seattle wasn’t exactly all sunshine and rainbows either. But the main difference maker that gives me hope for Wilson is the arrival of Sean Payton.

  • If there’s anyone that can turn things around for Wilson, it’s Payton, and it’s not like there’s a whole lot of work to do from a roster building perspective to get Wilson back to his winning ways, either.

  • Denver’s offense has quality pass catchers in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich, plus two very capable running backs in Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. They also retooled their offensive line through free agency to give Wilson, last year’s most sacked quarterback, more time to throw.

  • Wilson is just two years removed from an overall QB5 season that saw him throw for 40 touchdowns, and we got a taste of that level of play last year from Wilson once Nathaniel Hackett was canned. Wilson rattled off back to back Top-5 finishes in Week 17 and 18, which saw him capitalize both in the passing game and the run game (6 total TDs in two weeks, 4 passing, two rushing). Wilson still has chops in the run game even after rushing for just 276 yards on the season, and Payton can bring out the best of his dual threat skillset in 2023.

  • Better days are ahead for Wilson, and I think a Top-8 finish is in the cards for Wilson if the Sean Payton hire is all that we’re cracking it up to be.

2022 was a very conflicting season for Antonio Gibson, seeing career-low numbers in every rushing category with 149 attempts for 546 yards (3.7 YPC) and 3 TDs, but also seeing career-best numbers in nearly every receiving category with 46 catches on 58 targets for 353 yards and 2 TDs.

Unfortunately, the minor uptick in receiving utilization wasn’t enough to overcome a significant reduction in work on the ground, finishing the year as the RB28 with the lowest PPG and overall points in his 3-year career. That came amidst the introduction of Brian Robinson into the offense, who took over upon his return to the lineup, posting 12+ carries in all but 2 games and controlling both the running duties (68%) and overall touches (63%) between the two RBs.

Washington does see the introduction of an Eric Bieniemy scheme, which perfectly aligns with Gibson’s skill set, and saw a similar RB (Jerick McKinnon) thrive when working as the premier back. With that scheme and the release of J.D. McKissic this offseason, Gibson will likely see an expanded role both in the rushing and receiving games.

Going as a mid-to-low RB3 option on draft day in the late-7th/8th round range, I am happy to invest in Gibson as an RB3 (non-FLEX) option or even as a very high-end RB4, especially given his realistic top-15 upside in an Eric Bieniemy offense alongside the fact that Gibson has already proven he can be a quality fantasy RB (RB10 in 2021, RB13 in 2020).

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

A lot of the sentiment surrounding the Broncos last year was that every player on the offense was basically unstartable, but that wasn’t necessarily the case for Jerry Jeudy. The former 2020 first-rounder quietly produced at a very high level in 2022 amidst the dysfunction that plagued the Broncos offensive system.

From Weeks 7-18, Jerry Jeudy was the WR9 in PPR points per game (16.2), and that included a game where he left the game in the first quarter with zero points scored. Take out that game, and his per game average PPR points jumps up to 18.2, which would have placed him as the PPR WR7 in points per game in 2022.

With a new offensive scheme in place with Super Bowl-winning head coach Sean Payton at the helm, it’s hard to imagine a world where Jeudy suffers a decline in production. In fact, he could break out in 2023 if Russell Wilson can play serviceable football.