Is 2023 the Year for Kyle Pitts? 🤞

The season hasn’t even started yet and I’m already sweating over my waiver claims.

What’s in store:

• Are we jumping the gun on Dameon Pierce leading the Texans backfield? One Texans reporter is tempering expectations for the sophomore runner.

• Finding value outside the top 100 picks. Faraz brings us three players to target later in drafts.

• Dark horse picks for the overall QB1 and WR1! See which players Zach thinks can surprise in 2023.

• Can Kyle Pitts finally be a dominant force in 2023? Tyler sees the potential, and also loves the price.

• The Athletic’s Mike Jones anticipates the Texans deploying a “platoon” approach in their backfield this season.

  • This report runs contrary to what were otherwise encouraging signals about Dameon Pierce’s usage this preseason. With two running backs of the same archetype calling the Houston backfield home, there’s a chance that neither Pierce nor Singletary take control of the receiving work at running back. While this reports does cast some doubt on Pierce’s workload heading into 2023, it should still be the expectation that he handles the majority of the snaps on early downs with room to expand his role in the receiving game. He’s clearly the more talented back and will assuredly finish well ahead of Singletary in 2023 barring injury.

• Dolphins rookie RB De’Von Achane returns to practice yesterday.

  • The timing couldn’t be better for the rookie running back, sho has the opportunity to step into serious volume in the first four weeks of the season. With Achane and Mostert slated to split reps out of the Dolphins backfield to begin the year, it’s unlikely that Achane provides anything more than RB3/solid flex value to begin 2023. But if he can establish a role for himself in the receiving game, the Dolphins backfield could stratify by the time Jeff Wilson Jr. returns and feature Achane as the primary passing down back. Treat Achane as an appreciable asset for the time being.

• WR Cooper Kupp’s status remains questionable ahead of Week 1 matchup.

  • With no answers over the past week about Cooper Kupp’s status for Week 1, it’s probably best to head into Week 1 as if he’s already been ruled out for this weekend. While there’s still a slight chance that Kupp could be ready to play by Week 1, it’s unlikely that he’d be able to recover from a setback to his hamstring injury in such short order. At this point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rams hold Kupp out to begin the year to allow him to come back at full strength as soon as possible. The Chargers faced a similar dilemma last season with Keenan Allen, whom they rushed back into action and saw miss additional games as a result. Fantasy managers should turn to the waiver wire to scoop up Van Jefferson and even Puka Nacua in Kupp’s abscence, but neither of them will come remotely close to filling the hole left by him in fantasy lineups.

• TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills - 117.0 (10th Round)

  • Rookie TEs usually don't make a big impact, but the word is that Kincaid doesn't have any training wheels on at camp, and that he's extremely involved in the first team offense. Not only that, but he's being targeted frequently by Josh Allen.

  • If he's truly going to be on the field as a near-every down slot receiver, and have a 70%+ route participation rate on a pass-first offense that desperately needs a #2 behind Stefon Diggs, it's hard to not bet on Kincaid and his talent. He's a fringe-TE1 for me right now.

• WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans - 118.3 (10th Round)

  • Collins is my pick to be Houston's #1 WR. If we're going to get a QB upgrade and a more accurate QB at that behind center this year in CJ Stroud, Collins will be my pick.

  • He had a solid Reception Perception charting, and given his price along with his competition, Collins is a must-grab at ADP. He can potentially sneak into being a weekly WR3 with upside.

  • There has been some rapport between this QB/WR combo already in OTAs, minicamp, and training camp now. There was already glimpes of Collins being a target earner last year - he averaged 9 targets over his last 4 games His 1.68 yards/route run was better than average, and was pretty solid considering the terrible offensive environment he was in last year.

  • He has a big catch radius, and could do some damage in the red zone this year.

• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans - 13th Round

  • As a rookie, Okonkwo led all TEs in the NFL in yards/route run. Next up was Kelce, Andrews, and Kittle. Has a lot of promise, and will be running way more routes this year now that Austin Hooper is in Vegas.

  • A full route participation will mean he'll likely be a Top-12 TE season, even with DeAndre Hopkins in town. Why does full route participation matter? Because he was targeted on 26% of his routes (2nd best last year) on only 32% route participation. If that goes up to 75%, oh boy.

Dark Horse QB1: Justin Herbert, LAC

• Justin Herbert ranked second in the NFL in passing yards last season with an average depth of target of 7.0. What does that tell you?

• First and foremost: the Chargers were not utilizing Herbert’s howitzer arm appropriately at all. Lombardi is out in LA and Kellen Moore is in, who just happened to coordinate the highest scoring offense in the NFL last season in Dallas.

• That change will be a tremendous addition to the Chargers and a very positive change for Herbert, who will be allowed to push the ball downfield in a fast-paced offense. They’ll obviously remain pass-first with weapons at every position in the receiving corps., from Keenan Allen to Quentin Johnston and all the way down to Gerald Everett at tight end.

• It was the lack of production in the touchdown department last year that strapped Herbert for production in 2022. After two straight seasons of 30+ passing touchdowns, Herbert threw just 25 touchdowns on 699 attempts.

• If his volume can hang around in that 625-700 attempts range in 2023 (spoiler alert: it can and it will), a regression to the mean in terms of TD efficiency could mean a resurgence back into the top-5 fantasy stratosphere – and potentially an overall QB1 finish if his receivers can stay healthy for the majority of the year.

Dark Horse WR1: Chris Olave, NO

• No wide receiver has had the stars align for a breakout of massive proportions like Chris Olave this offseason. The former 1st-round wide receiver absolutely smashed the underlying metrics that point to not only career-long success, but also success in a player’s sophomore season.

• All five of the rookie wide receivers to post at least 2.25 yards per route run have went on to finish inside the top 7 in PPR points per game in their second year. Olave finished 2022 with 2.42, leading all rookies and ranking 7th among all WRs with 75+ targets.

• He also gets a massive quarterback upgrade in the form of Derek Carr, who most recently helped propel Davante Adams to an overall PPR WR3 finish in points per game in 2022. Carr went to his top wideout early and often, targeting Adams 168 times in 2022.

• Olave now assumes the role of Derek Carr’s WR1, and the two are a perfect fit for each other’s play styles. Carr threw the ball deep at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL last year, and Olave ranked 4th among those same WRs with 75 or more receptions in average depth of target (14.9).

• Not to mention one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league by virtue of playing in the NFC South, Olave has realistic upside of the overall WR1 in 2023.

2022 was a season to forget for Kyle Pitts, but those that drafted him (including myself) have been left with a sour taste in their mouth after that year. Heading into 2022, it looked like Pitts was more likely to step into the elite-TE1 conversation than stay where he was at as a rookie (TE6 in points), especially with a TE-friendly offensive scheme and Marcus Mariota’s lengthy history of TE production. Everything was aligning for a monster season – then it fell apart.

Mariota kept trying to get the ball to Pitts (7th in TE targets when active), but inaccuracy was the downfall to Pitts’ opportunity in 2022, bringing in just 28 of his 59 targets before a season-ending injury in Week 11. The inability to get the ball left owners frustrated with Pitts as his production went from hyper-consistent in 2021 to extremely inconsistent in 2022, posting under 5 points in 60% of his games.

2023 brings a completely new opportunity for Pitts, especially with Bijan Robinson drawing defensive attention and Desmond Ridder offering a (likely) improvement at QB. Those drafting in fantasy need to forget about the “he disappointed last year so he will again this year” narrative, and while he did indeed disappoint last year, a large reason for that narrative was his 3rd-round price tag with the expectation of becoming a rival for Kelce/Andrews atop the position.

In the mid-6th round (6.05) on both ADP and ECR as the 5th/6th TE off the board, expectations are nowhere near what they were heading into last season. Now may be the perfect opportunity to capitalize on that price tag as others are wary of him based on the negative perception of his name alone.

As a mid-TE1, he’s worth the risk, especially with no TE beyond him offering a fraction of the upside or substantial security. With the TE position essentially being a ‘dart throw’ beyond Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Kittle, and Goedert, there’s no reason not to invest a mid-round pick on a player just 10 months ago being labeled as the next great TE.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Ravens TE Mark Andrews ascended to a new level of fantasy production in 2021, outscoring Travis Kelce to claim the title of fantasy’s top tight end. Last year, he started off the year equally as strong, scoring 22+ PPR points in four of his first six games. After that, the production was nowhere to be found – likely a result of playing through a knee injury and losing Lamar Jackson towards the end of the season. He scored higher than 13 fantasy points just once the rest of the way, but while the surface level production wasn’t satisfactory, the underlying usage was very encouraging.

Despite poor fantasy outing after poor fantasy outing, Andrews led the league by a comfortable margin in air yards (900) and air yards share (35.9%) in 2022. Those numbers correlate very strongly with fantasy production, and he’ll have the chance to get back to being a high-end TE1 this season in the Ravens new Todd Monken-led offense.

While it would be dangerous to dismiss the impact that the additions of Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. could have on Andrews, it would be equally problematic to overreact to their additions as well. Andrews has been Lamar’s favorite target for the past two seasons and that trend has reportedly continued in training camp this year.