3 Upside Targets in 2023

And I thought my paper draft board with stickers was cool. 🥲

What’s in store:

• Why did the Lions even bother signing David Montgomery? 🥴Seriously, Detroit is so in love with Jahmyr Gibbs that I’m beginning to wonder if it’s affecting Monty at all.

• We like upside, and we know that you do too. 🍿 So settle in for a few minutes this morning and find your home-run fantasy pick with Faraz’s top upside shots.

• Two new faces in the NFC East are being underrated in drafts: And we won’t make you guess who they are! Scroll on down to get two strong contributors for your team on the cheap.

• Is Alexander Mattison a true 1:1 replacement for Dalvin Cook? A look back at his past production says that it’s not necessarily impossible.

• As if the Jahmyr Gibbs hype wasn’t already through the roof…

  • … it certainly is now that Lions GM Brad Holmes called Gibbs a “special weapon” and likened him to current and past NFL greats in Christian McCaffrey and Marshall Faulk. He also continued to throw gasoline all over the fire, classifying Gibbs as a “multi-purpose elite weapon” for the Lions. The Lions were clearly ecstatic on draft night when they took him at 12th overall, and it seems like they plan to use him in very non-D’Andre Swift ways – that is, they won’t be inexplicably taking him off the field in 2023 in favor of lesser players. Gibbs’ rushing work figures to be relatively limited – David Montgomery DOES still exist – but the receiving upside that Jahmyr Gibbs presents is what has fantasy managers foaming at the mouth. And on an offense that has one of the best O-lines in the league, any work that Gibbs inherits in the ground game will likely be of the efficient variety.

• DeAndre Hopkins = the newest Titans receiving threat? ⚔️

  • A shift in the odds from +500 to -300 certainly suggests that the former Cardinals receiver could be suiting up in the Titans’ navy blue in 2023. The race to acquire Hopkins’ talents appears to have narrowed to the Titans and Patriots, with much greater fantasy implications should he land in Tennessee than if he would land in New England. The arrival of Nuk in the Titans WR room would cast serious doubt on the fantasy prospects of Treylon Burks for this season, who was projected to have the potential to be relevant off of volume alone. Chig Okonkwo would be less influenced by the move, seeing as he’s a tight end, but Hopkins would almost certainly establish a top heavy target distribution if he found a new home in Tennessee. He’s likely to produce wherever he goes, and the largest questions about Hopkins don’t involve how his landing spot will affect him, but rather how he’ll affect the players that already exist in his new home.

• Breece Hall - RB11, 21.5 (3rd round) ✈️

  • Breece Hall has overall RB1 upside. But depending on a RB to get to RB1 levels the year after and ACL injury is a tough one for me - we typically see a dip in efficiency from these players in year 1, and in turn a dip in fantasy points, as well. But you have a guy like Breece Hall who is extremely athletic and very young and that profiles as the type of player to buck the trend. If he does, then he has overall RB1 upside - but for a RB1 to have that type of upside less than a year removed from an ACL tear, I’m not sure the chances for that are too high.

  • That being said, Breece Hall is the type of player who had such an amazing Year 1 before he got hurt that he would be a clear Top-5 fantasy RB going into this season if he didn’t get hurt.

• Jahmyr Gibbs - RB14, 40.4 (4th round) 🦁

  • I think Gibbs’ price tag is appropriate as the RB14 off the board - you can g grab him in the 4th right now on Underdog, but in home leagues, it seems like he might end up being a 3rd round pick, especially in PPR… and I’m really targeting him in full PPR and half PPR leagues. There is a legit chance he sees 80 catches this year.

  • D’Andre Swift was on pace for 80 catches in 2021, and last year, with the change at OC to Ben Johnson, D’Andre Swift was actually targeted at a higher rate per route run than when he was on pace for 80 catches in 2021.

  • So now that the Lions actually have a version of D’Andre Swift that they like, a RB who’s extremely explosive, that has ridiculous speed, and was one of the best pass catching prospects to come out over the last 10 years.

  • Gibbs was up there with guys like McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara - who by the way, both finished as RB1s in PPR FPPG in their rookies years without a goal line role, with another early down back complementing them… just like Gibbs has Montgomery.

  • There’s a good chance Gibbs finishes as a RB1 and he’s being drafted outside the Top-12 right now.

• Brandon Aiyuk - WR28, 51.2 (5th round) ⛏️

  • If there was going to be a breakout WR this year, Brandon Aiyuk could be that guy. And I’m not talking 1200 yards and 7 TDs… I’m talking 1400 yards and 10 TDs… it can happen with Brandon Aiyuk. I think he’s a value, and I’m gonna say it, I think he has WR1 upside.

  • Now, his offense has so many skill players… almost too many, to be honest. But my hope is that he finally gets utilized the way that any other team in the league would utilize him - and that’s by giving him 140 targets. He was on pace for a 1000 yard season in 2020 as a rookie and he didn’t even play the entire year! He was in Kyle Shanahan’s dog house in 2021, and in the games he played a full snap share that year, he was on pace for 1100 yards, and then had his 78 catch-1000 yard season last year despite the QB carousel they had going on.

  • It looks like Brock Purdy is going to be the guy, and there was no one that Brock Purdy targeted more than Brandon Aiyuk last year (24% target share). The dude’s being drafted outside the WR2 range, and I just don’t really see a world where his floor is lower than that WR24 spot, and I do think he has WR1 upside if Shanahan treats him like that true X alpha WR that he’s fed in past offenses.

  • But as I say that, I realize that you gotta get the ball in CMC’s hands, Deebo’s hands, Kittle’s hands… so there is a limiting factor here, but there is a world where Aiyuk gets 140 targets because he’s that good of a WR and a separator, and if that happens, we’re talking high-end WR2 territory.

Brandin Cooks (WR43, 7-8 Turn) 🤠

• Yes, Ceedee Lamb is going to be vacuuming targets in all year long, but does anyone realistically think that Brandin Cooks is going to finish anywhere near the WR43 spot in 2023? The guy missed four games last year and played on a truly horrific Texans offense, and STILL managed to average over 7 targets a game and scored in the double digits more times than he didn’t.

• And remember that this wasn’t necessarily just an injury keeping him off the field last year - Cooks straight up didn’t want to play in Houston anymore. He now enters a Cowboys offense that’s been missing a true WR2 since Amari Cooper’s departure and that has vacated three of its top 6 target earners from last year. That volume alone should be enough to propel Cooks into the top-36, but he’s got enough left in the tank and the talent to boot to give him true WR2 upside in Dallas.

• George Pickens (WR40) and Gabe Davis (WR41) have no business going ahead of him, and I’d be absolutely ecstatic if I could land Brandin Cooks as my WR3 – which is not only possible, but likely as his price.

Rashaad Penny (RB38, 10th Round) 🦅

• The hype has been around D’Andre Swift since they traded for him during the draft, but let’s not forget about the presumptive early down back in Philadelphia.

• Rashaad Penny has struggled with staying healthy in his career, yes. But he’ll be playing behind one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the NFL this year. And bearing his curability concerns in mind, maybe a comfortable split in workload with Swift would be a good thing to help keep Penny fresh and free of injury.

• The early down role on the Eagles offense should yield plenty of points via touchdowns, and that’s an ok prospect for a running back like Penny who’s being drafted in the 10th round. Remember back in the last five weeks of 2021 when Penny averaged 134 rush yards per game (that’s 7 yards per carry) to go along with 6 rushing touchdowns? That ceiling might not be there if he splits work, but the efficiency can be.

• Couple a high yards per carry with a high touchdown upside, and you have yourself a potential quality RB2 in the 10th round. Let me ask you a question: who would you rather have, Penny in the 10th round or Zach Charbonnet in the 9th? Or how about Penny in the 10th, or Isiah Pacheco in the 7th?

• Penny is a value based off his upside alone, and he’s going three rounds later than his teammate D’Andre Swift.

This offseason couldn’t have gone much better for Alexander Mattison. Between the Vikings’ opting to invest just a 7th-round pick in an RB (DeWayne McBride), not sign one in free agency, and releasing Dalvin Cook, Mattison immediately steps into the starting RB spot with a potential workhorse role in 2023.

Mattison doesn’t have a significant history of action with just six career starts in Cook’s absence. However, during that limited sample size, Mattison has been incredible. In those games, Mattison has averaged over 23 touches, over 115 yards, 0.8 TDs, 68% of the offensive snaps, and 20.1 fantasy PPG. That includes 16+ points in each of his last five games as the starter and 21+ points in four of those five.

Extrapolating that limited sample size to a full season, Mattison would see 397 touches, 1,963 yards, and 14 TDs on a pace that would’ve landed him 340 points – a total that would’ve seen him as the RB3 in points in 2022. While that appears an unrealistic expectation to have for a first-time starter, Dalvin Cook had finished as a top-12 RB in either points and/or PPG in five of his six seasons in Minnesota.

The upside is certainly there for Mattison to step in and replace Cook as a top-12 fantasy RB, but a lack of proven ability as a full starter limits Mattison’s value, limiting him to being an RB2 option heading into 2023.

He’s projecting as a low-end RB2/high-RB3 around the 6th-round mark on draft day. At that price, you’re not paying a premium for Mattison’s upside and are actually getting him for a very appealing value. If I can walk away from my draft with Mattison as a value RB2 option, I’d be happy. If I can walk away from my draft with Mattison as my RB3/FLEX, I’d be ecstatic.e in the cards for 2023.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

WR Gabe Davis has always been viewed as a big play threat in the Josh Allen-led Bills offense, but last season marked a new level of inconsistency for the once-hyped pass Buffalo pass catcher. Davis lived up to his name as a home run hitter, ranking 7th in both ADOT and yards per reception, but failed to produce at a level anywhere near consistent enough to warrant him starting in most fantasy lineups.

Despite garnering 93 targets on the season, Davis brought in just 48 of those en route to a 51.8% catch rate – the lowest catch rate among all 50 receivers with 80 or more targets in 2022. He also produced the highest drop rate of those same 50 receivers at 12.7%, with several concentration drops appearing across multiple weeks of game film.

The Bills did little to address the WR position this offseason, but the addition of Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the draft should not be overlooked. Davis carved out a substantial role in 2022, which is notable, but didn’t do much to inspire confidence that he can succeed with that larger workload. And after coming up well short in a season of high expectations, the bar has been lowered once again – his ADP sits at a palatable WR41, but the weekly inconsistency will leave him as an unappealing target in any format besides best ball.