Not Always Sunny in Philadelphia? ☀️

Fighting the urge to start the eighth dynasty league of the offseason in these trying times.

What’s in store:

• Which veteran receiver could lead his new team in receptions in 2023? One team source believes this player will edge out promising young talent for the title.

• Treylon Burks is ranked HOW MANY spots above Kadarius Toney? Blasphemy. I’ll have to scroll down to see why… 😉

• Cooking in the Big 🍎? Zach has a high profile free agent RB landing in New York, and hand picks new homes for two other teamless players.

• Wait, I thought D’Andre Swift landing with the Eagles was a good thing? It probably is. But it’s not always sunnier in Philadelphia.

• Bridging the Gap Between “Young” and Old?

  • Panthers.com’s Darin Gantt believes that WR Adam Thielen will lead the team in receptions in 2023, calling him the “favorite among that group of receivers”. The savvy ex-Viking signed a surprisingly lucrative 3-year deal with Carolina this offseason, and it seems as though the Panthers and HC Frank Reich plan to make him a fixture in the Bryce Young-led offense. Gantt also said that Thielen would be “set up to catch a bunch of short touchdown passes this year” – something that would certainly propel Thielen to a finish well above his current WR64 ADP on Underdog. With little established competition around him (Jonathan Mingo being a rookie, and D.J. Chark entering his first year with the team), Thielen could be a bargain barrel PPR WR3 option as Bryce Young’s safety valve.

• The Hopkins Sweepstakes Rages On

  • ESPN’s Mike Reiss says that the Titans have been “more aggressive” than the Patriots in pursuing Free Agent WR DeAndre Hopkins. Both Tennessee and New England are in the market for a WR1, and Hopkins is just about the last one available on the open market. Whether Hopkins winds up in Foxborough or with the Titans, we can expect him to command a large target share regardless; Juju Smith Schuster doesn’t profile as a target hog, and Treylon Burks has very little game experience under his belt after dealing with injury in his rookie year.

• A Surprise Landing Spot for Dalvin Cook?

  • PFT’s Mike Florio suggested that the Jets are “gaining momentum” towards signing free agent RB Dalvin Cook, and could have more interest in the ex-Viking than people realize. Breece Hall has reportedly been making good progress in his recovery, and the Jets have also voiced their optimism about a potential Week 1 return for Hall in 2023. However, signing Dalvin Cook would offer the Jets an excellent fallback plan should any complications arise with Hall while also creating one of the most dynamic backfield 1-2 punches in the NFL. Hall would certainly see less snaps with Cook than he would without Cook, but it’s possible the Jets wanted to take things easy anyway and would have worked in Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter to help lighten the load for the second year back.

• Not just one, but TWO fantasy relevant WRs in Houston this year?

  • ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime reports that WR Nico Collins has been QB C.J. Stroud’s favorite target in offseason practices heading into 2023, while Texans’ HC DeMeco Ryans said that WR Tank Dell was “open a lot”. Nico Collins has suffered from dirt-poor QB play in his short two-year career, so it will be interesting to see what he can do with his best signal caller to date throwing him passes this year. Collins profiles as the closest thing the Texans have to an X receiver, so his role in the offense should be relatively safe barring a breakout training camp from Texans draft pick Xavier Hutchinson. Tank Dell, on the other hand, figures to play on the inside in 2023, but he’ll have to beat out Robert Woods for that role if he wants to see the field on anything more than 3-WR sets. If that happens, though, the upside he carries would be realized, and it’s clear that Stroud had a hand in the Texans selecting the former Houston wideout as early as they did in the second round of the draft.

Justin Jefferson (WR1)

• He’s the ideal 1.01, combining a bulletproof weekly floor with the upside to be the highest scoring player in the league each and every week. He won’t let you down, and he’ll also win you weeks. He had 9 Top-5 finishes last year, the most among WRs.

Keenan Allen (WR12)

• This is a very aggressive ranking, but he was surprisingly the WR11 in PPR fantasy points/game in each of the last two seasons. He’s being drafted as the WR19 in a year where we’re expecting Justin Herbert to take a step forward. He should still have at least one big year left in him.

Jerry Jeudy (WR20)

• Jeudy has had the same number of 15+ PPR fantasy points/game last year as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, and Ja’Marr Chase. With Sean Payton in town, Jeudy has a shot at taking the step forward we’ve been waiting for. His 2.18 YPRR last year was 10th among qualifying WRs.

Treylon Burks (WR34)

• Burks is set up to be a target hog in 2022, and he’s being drafted as a bit of a value as the WR36. He had a relatively efficient rookie season before he got hurt, and there’s just about nobody outside of Chigoziem Okonkwo to siphon targets away in 2023. He still has a lot to work on, but massive volume gives him the potential to smash his ADP.

Kadarius Toney (WR37)

• As of right now, the Chiefs WR1 is Kadarius Toney. He didn’t play a full-time role last year, but when he was on the field he was being targeted at a 23% rate and made the most of it. If he gets a full-time role this year, and stays healthy, the upside with Patrick Mahomes is huge.

Ezekiel Elliott - Los Angeles Rams 🐏

• The Rams might have Sony Michel back for a second stint in LA, but he wouldn’t be anywhere close to what Zeke would offer to the team in the early down role – and that’s saying a lot. Zeke got a lot of flak for his almost comical role as a touchdown vulture on the Cowboys offense the past two seasons, but what goes unnoticed is the fact that he’s played at less than 100% in those two seasons, dealing with injuries to his PCL and MCL. Cam Akers seems primed to break out, but it’s hard to imagine Sony Michel being a true RB2 complement to him at this point in his career.

• There could be opportunity for two running backs to be relevant in the Rams backfield, especially if the wheels come off in the passing game (i.e. Matthew Stafford is hurt), so Zeke landing in LA wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen in the world.

DeAndre Hopkins - Kansas City Chiefs 🏹

• The Chiefs say they view Kadarius Toney as a true WR1, but he would have to take quite the leap from last year’s production to become that. With DeAndre Hopkins running opposite of him, though? That’s an ideal scenario for both Toney and Hopkins – for Toney because he won’t draw the top defender every play, and for Hopkins because he’ll have the opportunity to play with the best QB in the NFL.

• Hopkins is still a dominant receiver even at 30 years old; his 93 targets and 64 receptions ranked 3rd and 4th in the NFL among all receivers between weeks 7 and 16

Dalvin Cook - New York Jets 😳

• The Jets are going to ease Breece Hall back into action in 2023 regardless of who’s in the backfield with him, so why not make it one of the best RBs in the NFL in the past five years? Not only can Hall learn from a veteran like Cook, but Cook can also produce at a very high level on a Jets offense that figures to be the best they’ve had in New York in years.

• Cook’s 51 missed tackles forced (8th) and 30 runs of 10 yards or more (7th) suggest that there’s plenty left in the tank for him to be fantasy relevant, and now that he’s past the age apex for fantasy production among RBs, a shared backfield where he can stay fresh and produce on a comfortable amount of touches might be just what the doctor ordered.

2022 was a very conflicting season for D’Andre Swift.

It was an overall underwhelming season for him with 931 total yards and 8 TDs, finishing as the RB21 in points, but the overall numbers don’t truly tell the story of Swift’s season.

In reality, Swift was one of the best RBs last year when he got the chance, ranking 4th among RBs with 100+ touches at 5.5 YPC and ranking 2nd among top-40 RBs with 1.300 FPPT.

The issue was, he rarely got the opportunity in what was a pure committee in Detroit. Whether he was sidelined due to injury, active but “limited” due to a lingering injury, or simply not receiving the ball due to a ‘hot hand’ approach, Swift registered just 147 touches in 2022 – 39th among RBs.

The move to Philadelphia introduces a ton of potential in an elite rushing offense, but there’s arguably even less security for Swift in Philly than in Detroit. He’ll likely see an expanded rushing role with limited competition in Philadelphia (Rashaad Penny being his top competitor), but the greater issue is his receiving role. His receiving production was a major driving factor for his success in Detroit, but with Philadelphia’s lack of RB utilization in the passing game (61 targets to RBs, 12.1% target share – both lowest in the NFL), there’s no certainty on what workload he’ll get through that avenue.

Will Philadelphia alter its offensive scheme to stimulate Swift’s receiving workload? Likely so, but how much will Hurts’ rushing abilities continue to limit RB opportunities in the passing game? That’s the lingering question.

I love the potential for Swift as one of the most talented RBs in the NFL playing in one of the elite offenses in the NFL, but I am very likely to pass on him at his current low-RB2/very high-RB3 price tag in the 5th/6th round. At that point (relative to the position), he’s too big of a boom-or-bust RB compared to alternative options and their comparable ceilings.

Despite posting the 2nd-Lowest yardage output in the last 5 years of his career, George Kittle scored 11 touchdowns in 2022 – nearly doubling his single-season career high of 6.

7 of those touchdowns came between Weeks 15 and 18, where Kittle just couldn’t seem to catch a pass that didn’t land in the end zone. He led all fantasy players in touchdowns scored in that span, which just happened to be with Brock Purdy at QB 👀.