9 Playoff Takeaways for Fantasy Football 🏈

Hard to believe it’s already the offseason. Feels like just yesterday we were gearing up for the most wonderful time of the year. 😢

What’s in store:

• Mac Jones is likely to be trade bait this offseason. Not sure what team would bite, but extra depth at QB is never a bad thing.

• Travis Kelce is running it back in 2024 💪🏻. The Chiefs want a three-peat, and Kelce looked as dynamic as ever down the stretch.

• Faraz’s top NFL playoff takeaways from all 13 playoff games. Surprise surprise – there’s a lot of talk about the Chiefs atm.

• Christian McCaffrey is inevitable. So is Patrick Mahomes, but from a fantasy perspective, CMC is the best in the business.

• Patriots QB Mac Jones expected to be shopped as a trade candidate in the coming weeks, per Tom Pelissero

  • The market for Mac Jones isn’t likely to be terribly large at all, and any destination he ends up in will have a spot waiting for him down the depth chart and not as a starter in 2024. The fall from grace for Jones was astronomical after a promising rookie season, with periodic benchings marring the two seasons since. Jones has thrown for just 24 touchdowns against 23 interceptions in 25 games since 2022, and it seems unlikely that Jones will be a viable starter any time soon both for real life and fantasy football purposes. Granted, his supporting case in New England has been all kinds of sub-par – their most notable weapons in his time with the Patriots were Hunter Henry and Rhamondre Stevenson. Still, Jones has lacked luster in his three-year career and doesn’t fit the mold of the modern NFL quarterback, which will almost certainly result in him either being picked up for little compensation if at all. With Jones expected to be out of the picture, the Patriots will enter free agency and the draft in search of their next signal caller with a new regime in place, spearheaded by new HC Jerod Mayo.

• Cowboys are expected to negotiate a deal with QB Dak Prescott to keep him in Dallas ahead of the 2024 free agency cycle

  • With Prescott set to count ~$60M against the cap in 2024, the Cowboys have almost no choice but to re-sign the veteran quarterback despite another disappointing first round exit from the playoffs. The good news for Dak is that by signing an extension, the Cowboys will be able to open up cap space to potentially bring in more weapons in free agency – as well as extend Dak’s go-to-guy CeeDee Lamb to a long-term deal. In the fantasy football vacuum, Dak Prescott was everything fantasy managers could have wanted from him and more in 2023 – his QB4 finish in points per game was his highest since 2019, and he supported a WR2 overall finish in points per game for CeeDee Lamb. If Dallas can lock down both players this offseason for the foreseeable future, fantasy managers will be able to draft the duo of Prescott and Lamb with confidence.

• Chiefs TE Travis Kelce puts retirement rumors to rest, says he’ll be back for the Chiefs’ 2024 quest for a three-peat

  • After a quiet second half of the regular season that saw the entire Chiefs offense struggle down the stretch, the Chiefs were able to right the ship in the playoffs and handle business to win their third Super Bowl in the past five years, and second title in a row. Lo and behold, the return to form for Travis Kelce was one of the primary drivers of Kansas City’s newfound offensive success in the tournament, and he now appears primed to make a triumphant run as a top fantasy TE once again in 2024. After racking up just 387 yards and one touchdown in his final seven games of the regular season, Kelce exploded for 355 yards and three touchdowns in four playoff games to put himself back on the fantasy map for next season. After a decline in production seemed inevitable for the all-world TE next season, Kelce may have been able to quell any worries about his ability to be productive for the time being. He likely will remain out of the first round of fantasy drafts this season thanks to the stunt he pulled in the back half of 2023, but the sentiment surrounding his name has likely also been salvaged with his dominant end of season run.

• The Ravens need a RB

  • When three RBs split rushing work in an AFC Divisional game, and then combine for only 6 attempts in the AFC Championship, you know you don’t have your guy. JK Dobbins will be a free agent coming off an Achilles injury, so Ravens will have a hole to fill. Look for them to be interested in a dual-threat RB this off-season to fit OC Todd Monken’s scheme.

• The Ravens need another WR

  • If the Ravens truly want to go through the air with Monken as OC, they need a complement to Zay Flowers at WR. OBJ and Rashod Bateman have been rotational players, and my guess is that OBJ is likely to move on in free agency. Spending big on a veteran free agent like Tee Higgins could be what this offense needs to get over the hump.

• James Cook has RB1 upside in 2024

  • Cook is already being drafted as the RB12 in 2024 best ball drafts, and I understand why. He had 18 rushing attempts in each of his two playoff games, and was targeted on 26% of his routes - for context, only 4 RBs were targeted at a higher rate during the 2023 season. That’s RB1 type of opportunity, even without goal line attempts.

• The Bills need a WR

  • Gabe Davis hasn’t proved to be an effective WR2, so my guess is that the Bills let him walk in free agency. 3/21 and 7/52 in two playoff agmes isn’t going to cut it from Stefon Diggs. The Bills need to target a WR as early as the first round in addition to free agency, especially to prepare for the event that Diggs’ 2nd half slide is indicative of more than just a slump.

While you’re reading, make sure to stay tuned for the Upper Hand Fantasy Dynasty Kit that will be available in 17 days! The offseason is officially here for all 32 teams, but it’s never too early to get ahead and pick up an edge on your opponents for the 2024 season!

• Jahmyr Gibbs needs more work

  • I’d assume Gibbs will get more of the share in 2024, but I also assumed he’d get more work when it mattered most in the playoffs. 36% of the rushing attempts and 39% route participation isn’t going to cut it on a large sample size. His 3 TDs while Montgomery received 89% of the goal line work in 3 games isn’t sustainable either. He’s the RB4 off the board right now in 2024 best ball drafts.

• Nico Collins is an alpha

  • If any of your league mates think Nico Collins’ late-season and playoff performances were solely due to Tank Dell being off the field, I’d suggest doing what you can to take him off their hands. 35% target share and 49% air yards share in their two playoff games fits a high-end WR1 profile. Tied to CJ Stroud next year across another very good WR in Tank Dell, the sky is the limit for Collins.

• Trust in Pacheco

  • The Chiefs have relied heavily on Isiah Pacheco during the playoffs. He was on the field for at least 70% of snaps in each game, and averaged a little more than 23 touches/game. He was the overall RB10 in PPR points/game this year, and is currently the RB10 off the board in early 2024 best ball drafts. Very likely Pacheco is their guy once again next season.

• Rashee Rice getting peppered

  • The Chiefs still desperately need a perimeter WR, but Rice has shown that he can be a big part of this offense despite any additions to it. 22% target share in 4 games with two of them at 25%+. Year 2 can be even bigger after leading all WRs in yards after catch per reception this year. Mahomes missed Rice on what would’ve been a game-winning TD in regulation, but moot point now.

• Travis Kelce may have something left

  • Kelce will be 35 next season, but averaging 89 yards/game in their four playoff games has to keep him on the high end of the fantasy spectrum. He’s coming back for the 3-peat after averaging 28% target share during the playoffs compared to only 21% during the regular season.

Despite the loss in the Super Bowl at the hands of the Chiefs, Christian McCaffrey remains hilariously inevitable from a fantasy football perspective. It’s common knowledge, of course, that CMC is the undisputed RB1 overall and potentially the top overall fantasy player in the NFL – but he took his game to a level only seen one other time in his career back in 2018.

For just the second time ever in his career, Christian McCaffrey scored 28 or more PPR fantasy points in back-to-back-to-back games in this year’s playoffs. His 31.8 point performance against Green Bay, 29.2 fantasy point performance against Detroit, and 28.0 fantasy point performance against the Chiefs mark his second-most productive stretch as a fantasy running back in his time in the league.

The most productive stretch of games for McCaffrey came back in his days as a Panther, a three-game stretch that saw him rack up 43.7 points against Seattle, 21.1 points against the Buccaneers, and 28.1 points against the Browns. McCaffrey’s five touchdowns scored also led all players in the playoffs this season, and he’s primed to run it all the way back with the 49ers in 2024 as a top-2 – if not top overall – selection.