Adding some 'Pop' to the Patriots' receiving game! 💥

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This past weekend, we were talking Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa in a potentail dynasty trade. Here’s a little snippet of what was being discussed:

What’s in store:

• Adding some ‘Pop’ to the Patriots receiving game 💥 Find out which pass catcher is turning heads so far this offseason in New England.

• Tank Bigsby reportedly trudging along through early offseason. Sounds like Doug Pederson’s fever dream of lightening Etienne’s workload may not be meant to be.

• Should we give a damn who’s starting for the Raiders at QB? Of course we should to an extent, but the QB competition they have going on in Las Vegas may not be as hopeless as you think.

• You know you’ll be getting a piece of the Bengals passing game… But is there value to be had in the Cincinnati backfield?

• Patriots WR DeMario Douglas reportedly has been “by far the best and most explosive playmaker in practice”, per the Athletic’s Chad Graff

  • The Patriots have assembled a WR room that features much more quantity than quality, including two recent draft picks in WRs Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. However, it’s the second-year pro DeMario Douglas that’s reportedly been turning heads in Patriots camp so far as the best pass catcher on the field. Given the dysfunction under center last season for New England, Douglas’ 1.7 yards per route run is relatively noteworthy heading into year 2 with a talented rookie at QB to potentially grow with in the near future. He operated primarily as a slot receiver in 2023 and will likely look to fulfill the same role in the Patriots’s offense in 2024. He’ll have to fight off competition from the aforementioned Polk and Baker, as well as the likes of Kendrick Bourne, Juju Smith-Schuster, and the reliable red-zone threat Hunter Henry if he wants to be a consistent fantasy contributor, but with a brand new coaching system and quarterback installed, he’ll have a clean slate to make a strong first impression – something that he seems to already be doing given this report. Douglas ranked 5th in yards after the catch per reception and 2nd in missed tackles forced per reception among qualifying receivers last year, making him one of the league’s best under-the-radar talents after the catch.

• Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell reportedly has the ‘slight edge’ for the QB1 job over Gardner Minshew, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler

  • It’s early, but the returns so far seem to be in favor of the second-year QB out of Purdue to draw the start in Week 1. Of course, the QB battle in Las Vegas was never going to be about O’Connell or Minshew themselves, but instead about what each signal caller can do for the Raiders offense overall – and more importantly, who will be able to support more fantasy relevant receivers. Given their track records in the league so far, Minshew is the obvious pick between the two in terms of which QB would support a more consistent Davante Adams. However, O’Connell also sustained Adams at a WR1 level down the stretch last year, albeit in a less consistent manner than Minshew did for Pittman in 2023. There’s still plenty of offseason left to play out before we get to the real thing this September (😔), but it’s likely O’Connell’s job to lose given his familiarity with the team and the fact that Minshew came in merely as a free agent signing. However, a shift in the other direction would be a welcome development in the minds of fantasy managers. We’ll be able to get a better read on the QB room a month from now during training camp, but until then, fantasy managers shouldn’t give or take too much from Adams’ draft stock depending on which signal caller ultimately ends up drawing the start.

• Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby reportedly not having the ‘standout offseason program that he had last year,’ per SI’s John Shipley

  • Well there’s a plot twist. Jaguars HC Doug Pederson has spent the entire offseason so far insisting on getting the second-year RB the ball more and at the expense of Travis Etienne, but according to reports from Shipley, the wheels are already coming off for Bigsby as the rubber meets the road. Fortunately for Bigsby and his managers, the competition for touches out of the backfield hasn’t increased this offseason and he’s got his head coach infatuated with the idea of him touching the ball more, so he could realistically enter the season locked in as Jacksonville’s RB2 despite poor performance. After an offseason of hype leading into 2023, Bigsby scored just two touchdowns while rushing for no more than 32 yards in any game last year. With Etienne still perfectly healthy and Bigsby failing to capitalize on the golden parachute Pederson has seemingly granted him through his struggles early in his career, it’s fair to wonder just how far back the Jaguars will be willing to cut Etienne’s workload. The Jaguars did just make Trevor Lawrence the highest-paid QB in the NFL by average salary and ran the fifth-most pass plays in 2023, so even a slightly increased share for Bigsby in the backfield will likely be low overall anyway. And with reports indicating that Bigsby hasn’t been that guy in camp so far this offseason, it’ll only get more difficult to buy Pederson’s Arthur Smith-like coachspeak as we draw nearer to kickoff.

Davante Adams is one of the best to ever do it. But at 31 years old in an iffy offensive situation, what should we expect? It could be better than we think. The Raiders were a mess last season – the offensive staff was fired mid-season, and it led to next-man-up Bo Hardegree calling plays for the first time. Needless to say, he’s not back with the team as they gear up for 2024.

HC Antonio Pierce brought in Luke Getsy to be their OC and play caller, who worked in the same capacity for the Bears last season. More importantly, he was Davante Adams’ OC and certified homeboy in his final years with the Packers, which also happened to be two of Adams’ best years in his career. He put up 115 receptions, 1374 yards, and 18(!) touchdowns in 2020 and followed that up with 123 receptions for 1553 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021.

Having Aaron Rodgers certainly had a lot to do with it… but there was more.

Getsy ran Adams out of the slot at the highest rate of his career, and he also ran him mostly on layup routes with some of Adams’ lowest average depth of target of his career. Why is that good? Because that’s what this lackluster QB room needs. The Aidan O’Connell vs Gardner Minshew QB1 battle doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, to be frank, but quick and easier throws will lead to easy production for Adams.

To be clear: we want Minshew to win this battle for Adams’ sake. Minshew was able to support Michael Pittman Jr. as a WR1 – and a very solid one at that – from Weeks 6-18 last year once Richardson was out for the year. Over that span, Pittman was the overall WR9 in PPR pts per game while being fed a 32% target share with 79% catchable targets. He finished top-17 each week, as well, from Week 6 onward until he eventually was injured in Week 14 with that brutal concussion against the Steelers.

We can’t ignore what O’Connell was able to do for Adams in his time as starter last year, because there were some bright spots: a 35% target share is exactly what you want from your WR1, and Adams finished inside the top-10 three times with O’Connell under center. However, in nine games from Weeks 9-18, Adams also finished outside the top-20 five times while only receiving catchable passes on 67% of his targets. The volume was consistent, but his production was more volatile than we like it to be.

In other good news, new OC Luke Getsy also allowed DJ Moore to be a target funnel last year in Chicago. Moore’s 29% target share was 7th among all WRs.

If Minshew becomes the starter, Adams might actually be a relatively safe pick at his current WR13 price. Don’t be afraid of giving him a shot in drafts, especially as your WR2 if he makes it to the third round.

I think this is a pretty ambiguous situation at the moment - Chase Brown was drafted in the 5th round, he was able to handle a big workload in college - he was never overly efficient, but he was solid. He had some big plays last year, so there’s some excitement here for him with Joe Mixon gone - they did quickly add Moss to this backfield, and it’s very possible this ends up being a 1-2 punch. Zack Moss was the bell cow with Jonathan Taylor out last year, and it’s worth noting that… he was pretty good. He was 5th among all qualifying RBs in rushing yards over expectation/attempt… he had similar elusive numbers to Chase Brown last year but maintained that efficiency with 140 more carries than Brown had last year.

Neither of these backs stand out as a pass catcher either, and in a pass-first offense, the guy who’s likely to get more receptions is the one on the field running routes on early downs. If I had to guess right now, that’s Zack Moss. If I had to guess who will be the more explosive player, that will likely be Chase Brown. I don’t love Moss’ price tag as the RB26 off the board - that kind of assumes he’s the guy, and I think that price for that assumption is pretty steep. I think this one of the most ambiguous backfields in the league at this point, and if you look at the RBs being taken around him - D’Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren, James Conner, Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard - I much rather take shots on those guys in that range.

Chase Brown’s price is sitting at the RB36 - that’s also a little steep for me. Brian Robinson, Tyjae Spears, Gus Edwards are going right before him - now once those guys are off the board, maybe I’ll think about it, but I’m just not so interested in this backfield with these prices - it might be a full avoid for me. I think I rather reach and take someone like Jerome Ford, who’s sitting at RB41 given Nick Chubb’s injury.