Alexander Mattison = Bargain RB1? 💰

Anyone else slightly bothered by the fact that Sleeper updated their app and now the iPad version doesn’t work in landscape?

What’s in store:

• Make a decision, Kareem Hunt! The free agent RB looked to be signing in New Orleans, but instead is visiting with the Colts.

• Are we losing sight of Rashod Bateman? Zay Flowers has been the story of Ravens camp – and Faraz is keeping a close eye on Bateman’s stock.

• Revealing two undervalued RBs according to their ADPs 🔮 Zach has peered into the crystal ball to help you nail your draft!

• Don’t let McCaffrey fall out of the top-2 in drafts this year. Jefferson and Chase are great receivers, but Tyler has eyes for the 49ers RB once again in 2023.

• Both Kadarius Toney, Isiah Pacheco expected to be ready for the Chiefs’ regular season opener in Week 1

  • The news about Toney comes as a slight surprise, considering his injury and subsequent surgery to address it is not too far off in the rearview. Meanwhile, the expectation has always been for Isiah Pacheco to suit up without issues in Week 1, so nothing else to see here with regards to the second-year running back. Toney has missed almost all of training camp so far, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see him any time this preseason as the Chiefs work to ensure his availability in Week 1. Given Toney’s injury history in his short career so far, however, he remains a very risky investment and is liable to be in and out of fantasy lineups often in 2023. With Skyy Moore going exactly one pick ahead of Toney on Underdog according to the platform’s ADP, Moore is a much more worthwhile investment.

• Kareem Hunt signs with Saints – or does he?

  • After reports came out indicating that Hunt signed in New Orleans, multiple sources backtracked and noted that while Hunt had a good visit there, he’s slated to meet with the Colts next. In terms of fantasy value for Kareem Hunt, a landing in New Orleans is exactly the situation we would like to see him avoid. He’d be the 3rd string back behind Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams – a far cry from any fantasy relevant role he could find elsewhere. And once Kamara is back from his suspension, there’s a chance that Hunt could be cut from the team entirely. With his next stop in Indy, Hunt could land in a much less crowded backfield there where he would presumably take over the passing down role. And if Jonathan Taylor would hold out for any reason, Hunt could suddenly be thrust into an RB1 role with the Colts – a much more fantasy-friendly landing spot than New Orleans.

• Jaguars HC Doug Pederson complimentary of rookie RB Tank Bigsby’s pass-catching ability

  • This isn’t the first time this offseason we’ve heard about the rookie RB’s chops in the receiving game, and it probably won’t be the last either. Pederson noted that Bigsby wasn’t utilized much in the passing game during his college career at Auburn, but countered that by saying that he’s “a really good pass-catcher in the backfield”. While Bigsby might not have the standalone value to be a consistent weekly contributor on fantasy teams, his emergence certainly has ramifications for Travis Etienne’s projected usage this season. The Jaguars drafted Bigsby relatively high after comments were made that Jacksonville didn’t want Etienne to see 75+% of snaps, so it appears the team is ready to make good on that statement in 2023. Without a substantial role in the passing game for Etienne, he could struggle to finish as a weekly RB1 in a pass-first Jaguars offense.

• Bateman will likely start the year a little slow due to his off-season Lisfranc surgery, but he could be his full self in the October time frame. When that happens, don't be surprised if he takes the league by storm.

• I've been a Bateman truther, and while I don't have him ranked too high right now, it's mainly because of the potential slow start and to guard myself against any potential setbacks before he's back at 100%. If I miss out on Ravens receivers and Bateman is off to a relatively slow start, I might buy him low after a few weeks into the season.

• Take a look at his Reception Perception profile - the dude is an alpha WR just waiting for opportunity. On a way more balanced offense, if he's the alpha I think he is, Bateman can be a league winner. All eyes are on Zay Flowers at the moment, and rightfully so – he’s who I’m drafting first because I'm a fan of his too, and he’s healthy. But I would not be surprised if he takes a backseat to Bateman once he's at 100%.

• Last year, Bateman ranked 12th in yards/route run among 120 WRs before he got hurt. He was banged up during his first several weeks of the season too, but in the first three weeks when he was completely healthy, he ranked third in YPRR (3.55) behind only Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs.

• It’s a ridiculously small sample size, but I’m just trying to paint a picture of how good he can be. Whoever the #1 WR on this offense is - whether it's him or Zay – can be a league winner.

• Alexander Mattison (RB18, 5-6 turn)

  • I thought for sure Mattison’s ADP would settle higher than where it did at RB19, but I’m not complaining that it’s still this low.

  • We actually did a post about this when Cook was released, but I’ll just throw a stat out here that explains just how good Mattison has been without Dalvin Cook in the lineup: in games since 2020 where Mattison handles 50% or more of the snaps in a game, he’s averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game. For context, that would have placed Mattison as the RB1 in points per game among all running backs last year.

  • Obviously, that stat is for comparison’s sake, and I’m not sure we can expect Mattison to just average 22 points per game in a pass first offense. The sample size has been small, but the results have been great.

  • But even if that per game average drops down to a low-end RB1 number, he’s still being drafted way too low at RB18. Look at it this way: if there were no Dalvin Cook drama going down this offseason, Dalvin Cook would probably be sitting around RB10-RB12 in ADP. Mattison has proven he can be pretty much just as good as Cook for fantasy, yet he’s the RB18 right now. Minnesota’s offense is going to be very fantasy conducive, as usual, so what’s there to be afraid of that’s knocking Mattison’s price down so low?

Rashaad Penny (RB34, 10th Round)

• The hype has been around D’Andre Swift since they traded for him during the draft, but let’s not forget about the presumptive early down back in Philadelphia. Rashaad Penny has struggled with staying healthy in his career, yes. But he’ll be playing behind one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the NFL this year.

• And bearing his durability concerns in mind, maybe a comfortable split in workload with Swift would be a good thing to help keep Penny fresh and free of injury. The early down role on the Eagles offense should yield plenty of points via touchdowns, and that’s an ok prospect for a running back like Penny who’s being drafted in the 10th round.

• Remember back in the last five weeks of 2021 when Penny averaged 134 rush yards per game (that’s 7 yards per carry) to go along with 6 rushing touchdowns? That ceiling might not be there if he splits work, but the efficiency can be.

• Couple a high yards per carry with a high touchdown upside, and you have yourself a potential quality RB2 in the 9th round. Let me ask you a question: who would you rather have, Penny in the 9th round or Zach Charbonnet in the 9th? Or how about Penny in the 9th, or Isiah Pacheco in the 8th? Penny is a value based off his upside alone, and he’s going two rounds later than his teammate D’Andre Swift.

After two consecutive seasons of fluke injuries, many were labeling Christian McCaffrey as “injury prone”, despite missing just one game prior to those injuries between his NFL and collegiate careers. He dismissed those narratives by playing all 17 games in 2022.

And we know what a healthy Christian McCaffrey is: elite.

McCaffrey went on to finish as the RB2 in fantasy behind only Austin Ekeler, going for over 1,800 total yards and 14 TDs, split between time with the Carolina Panthers and the San Francisco 49ers.

He had the overall production and, per usual, was one of the safest week-to-week fantasy RBs, posting 8+ points in every game and 13+ points in all but two games (one of which was his first game with San Francisco, where he got just 29% of the snaps).

After a game to acclimate in San Francisco, where he still posted 8.2 points on 10 touches, McCaffrey was the runaway top RB in fantasy, finishing with 23 PPG the remainder of the season and posting over 30 points more than the next RB (Ekeler).

The only potential concern for CMC heading into 2023 is the uncertainty within the 49ers’ QB situation. However, with things trending towards Purdy or Darnold starting, the threat of Trey Lance or any 49ers QB potentially sapping value from McCaffrey with their legs is low.

Regardless, McCaffrey is an elite-RB1 option and should easily be a top-2 pick in fantasy this season. Currently, as my 1.01 in all formats, I’m anticipating another monster season from the perennial fantasy superstar.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Tony Pollard is stepping into major opportunity in 2023 after finishing as the overall RB9 in fantasy points per game, despite receiving considerable competition from Ezekiel Elliott for touches. Zeke handled 231 carries last year, 38 more than Pollard’s 193 – and it’s that vacated opportunity that makes Pollard such an attractive pick this year.

Among RBs with 100+ carries in 2022, both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard finished inside the Top-5 in TD% (number of runs where a touchdown is scored). Elliott (4th - 5.2%) finished one spot above Pollard (5th - 4.7%), but the way each player got there could not have been more different.

Elliott – much like the leader in TD% last year, Jamaal Williams – saw an obvious majority of his team’s attempts inside the 5 (Zeke handled over 70% of those carries). Meanwhile, Pollard handled just 28% of those carries – but finished right behind Zeke anyway in 2022.

That’s because Pollard was one of the most efficient and explosive runners in the league last year, leading the NFL in % of runs over 20 yards and yards after contact per attempt. That ability, coupled with even just a piece of the goal line work Zeke had last year, could make Pollard one of the most productive RBs in fantasy football in 2023.