Assessing Mid-Round RB Talent 🧐

The first full week of preseason football starts tonight - how many unders are you taking on point totals this weekend? 😂

What’s in store:

• Stock up, stock down reports out of Buffalo 📈📉 The fantasy gods lift Dalton Kincaid, and strike down Damien Harris!

• Assessing Mid-Round RB Talent 🧐 Get the low-down on Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, and D’Andre Swift!

• The sleeper QB that nobody is talking about! He was a touchdown machine at the end of 2022 – keep reading to find out!

• Can Akers carry last season’s momentum into 2023? Things seem to be trending his way in the volume department.

• Damien Harris trending down, Dalton Kincaid trending up In Bills offense

  • The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia reports that RB Damien Harris is dealing with a knee injury that caused him to miss most of Wednesday’s practice, while TE Dalton Kincaid continues to impress and has earned Josh Allen’s “complete trust”.

  • Harris going down with an injury will only add more fuel to the James Cook flames leading into 2023, as it had been previously reported that Cook had already clearly separated himself from the former Patriot as the lead back in Buffalo. It’s hard to imagine the Bills pulling James Cook off the field on any kind of regular basis in favor of Latavius Murray should Harris miss time to start the season, so at this point, it’s officially wheels up for Cook.

  • In better news in the Bills offense, TE Dalton Kincaid continues to stack impressive practices while building rapport with Josh Allen. Between Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, and Luke Musgrave, 2023 could potentially be the first season in a long time where we see rookie TEs succeed in their rookie years. With Gabe Davis having a quiet camp and nobody else to challenge Kincaid in the passing game besides Stefon Diggs, it’s looking like he could realistically enter Week 1 as Josh Allen’s No. 2 target.

• Seahawks Rookie RB Kenny McIntosh slated to miss multiple weeks with a knee sprain

  • The ghost of Rashaad Penny seems to be haunting the Seahawks backfield even heading into 2023, leaving all three Seattle ball carriers with nicks and dings heading into 2023. After seeing Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet return in short order from their pop-up injuries a week ago, McIntosh looks to miss a more significant amount of time moving forward. As long as Walker and Charbonnet are healthy, McIntosh most likely won’t have a fantasy-relevant role, but he’d be an immediate waiver wire pick up if anything would happen to the Seahawks dynamic 1-2 in season.

• Training Camp QB battle updates out of Tampa Bay, Indy

  • The Buccaneers and Colts released their first initial depth charts of the 2023 season this past week, and both teams neglected to list an exclusive QB1. For Indy, both rookie Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew were listed as the QB1, while the Bucs indicated that the QB1 will be Baker Mayfield OR Kyle Trask. Richardson and Mayfield are expected to draw the Week 1 start at this point in time, but both battles are still open competitions with a full preseason slate of games left to play.

• Travis Etienne - RB14, 40.7 (4th Round)

  • Doug Pederson has talked about having a running mate for Travis Etienne for a little while now, and the Jaguars got one in the 3rd round of the draft in Tank Bigsby.

  • Bigsby is ideal size, and is a pretty good RB prospect. Among 38 RBs with 150+ carries last year in the Power 5, he ranked 5th in yards after contact/attempt. In 2020 as a freshman, he ranked 6th. He ranked 9th among 80 FBS RBs last year in missed tackles forced, and 3rd of 50 qualifying RBs in 2020 as a freshman.

  • So when you add a good rusher like this who has Day 2 draft capital, it probably means he's going to add the thunder to the lightning that Travis Etienne already possesses; Etienne was not top-10 in yards after contact/attempt, but he did rank 4th in missed tackles forced/rush last year among RBs with 200+ carries.

  • Let me ask you a question - if Etienne finished the year as the RB24 in PPR points/game while playing the every-down back role, what makes you think he's going to finish at or better than the RB14 price tag you have to pay for him right now with another back in the mix?

  • Etienne had 13 carries inside the 5 yard line and only converted 3 of them, which was one of the worst conversion rates of any RB - and a guy named Tank is coming in - maybe he'll get that job? I think that can happen. Etienne will have his games - he's a home run hitter, and I'm a big fan of his. And on an ascending offense, he'll have more opportunities to score, but I'm fading Etienne at cost.

  • Verdict: AVOID

• Kenneth Walker - RB17, 53.6 (5th Round)

  • Kenneth Walker was a playmaking machine last year as a rookie, but one area he struggled was yards after contact. The Seahawks brought in Zach Charbonnet in the 2nd round - that's the type of draft capital you have to worry about if you have Walker.

  • This is most likely going to turn into some sort of 1-2 punch between these two backs, but I'm even more concerned that Kenny McIntosh, despite being a late round pick, could be their primary receiving back – he's been one of the most efficient receiving backs at Georgia over the past two seasons, especially last year. This can very well turn into a 3-RB backfield.

  • Charbonnet does also have the pass-catching chops that Walker might not have, but he wasn't as efficient as a typical "pass-catching" RB would be.

  • The Seahawks offense should be good this year, so Walker will have his games, but the opportunity for consistent workhorse-type numbers probably won't be there.

  • Verdict: AVOID

• D’Andre Swift - RB24, 77.8 (7th Round)

  • D'Andre Swift has had a tough time staying healthy over the last couple of seasons, but his upside shouldn't be questioned when he is on the field. The Lions were done with him, and he got much needed new life in Philly. His dynasty value is back, and if you bought low, you win.

  • He's now on a great offense, behind a great offensive line, and on a team who had a glaring need at RB after losing Miles Sanders. I'd assume Penny is the primary runner in this offense while he's healthy, but with Swift mixing in. 8-10 carries will be good enough for Swift to produce for fantasy, because his bread and butter is in the receiving game.

  • Even with that said, Swift is also underrated in the run game - he ranked 6th in yards after contact/attempt among 48 RBs with 90+ carries last year. He also ranked 5th in missed tackles forced/attempt. And yes, the Eagles didn't use their RBs in the receiving game much last year, and Jalen Hurts is a rushing QB. Why would that change?

  • Good teams change what they do based on their personnel. Just like the Eagles became more balanced once they got AJ Brown, they will adjust for Swift.

  • Verdict: TARGET

• There’s been all kinds of discussion about who will be starting for the 49ers come Week 1, and it’s probably going to be Purdy. But those conversations have always been about what Purdy can do for the weapons in the 49ers offense, and not about what Brock Purdy can do for YOU and your team!

• Pop quiz: who was tied with Dak Prescott over the last six weeks of the season for the most passing touchdowns in the NFL with 13? Brock Purdy was. He was also 3rd in fantasy points per dropback in that span – with just Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts ahead of him, and Patrick Mahomes one spot behind him. ELITE company.

• People point to Brock Purdy being a game manager, and it’s true – his 6.9 average depth of target was 3rd-lowest among 23 QBs in the last 5 weeks of the season. But that’s not an issue when you consider that the 49ers weapons counterbalance that low depth of target with freakish production after the catch: the 49ers WR room as a whole ranked first in overall YAC/attempt among all 32 teams, and their TEs ranked 5th in that same statistic.

• Purdy also tossed at least two touchdowns in 7 straight games from Week 13 through the Wild Card round of the playoffs, giving him a fantastic fantasy floor week in and week out.

• Now, am I making the case for him as a Top-10, Top-8 QB? Of course not. But he could finish as a low-QB1 plenty of times during the season and finish inside the Top-15 assuming he stays healthy. And who knows? Purdy was thrown into the fray last year and performed like a seasoned veteran. Could he take a step forward in his second year and throw a little more gunpowder on top of this already dynamite offense? Imagine that.

• The Shanahan offense really does work wonders, doesn’t it?

After missing nearly the entire 2021 season to an offseason Achilles injury, Cam Akers struggled to get back to form upon his return, especially early on in 2022, posting just 2.8 YPC and 25.4 fantasy points (RB69) through the first 10 weeks of the season.

It was around that point that Akers was seemingly returning to full strength, taking upon a larger workload with 13+ touches in seven of his final eight games, closing out the season with 4.8 YPC and ranking as the RB8 in PPR scoring during that final stretch.

There’s a lot of uncertainty with the Rams’ offense, especially compared to this time last year. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are both returning from season-ending injuries so, in theory, the offense should return to its typical focus around those two, but there’s no certainty that they will be the same after their injuries.

Between those two coming off injuries, a lack of weapons beyond Kupp, and no significant investments in the backfield (only drafting Zach Evans in the 6th round), it looks as if the offense may see a heavy dosage of Akers in 2023.

Currently going as a low-end RB2/FLEX somewhere between the 5th and early-7th rounds, I’d be very comfortable with Akers as my FLEX or RB3, especially if it means rounding out my lineup with a quality QB/TE given that his draft price gives some flexibility.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

The Falcons drafted RB Bijan Robinson 8th overall in this year’s draft – not because they needed a running back, but as a luxury pick. Bijan is unquestionably one of the best, if not the best, prospects to enter the NFL since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and the Falcons made the right move in not passing up on him. However, Robinson steps in ahead of another talented RB entering his second year in Atlanta: Tyler Allgeier.

The Falcons offense was largely dysfunctional in 2022, spending most of the year with Marcus Mariota under center. However, as a rookie, Tyler Allgeier was one of the few bright spots in the Atlanta offense, racking up impressive numbers and contending with the league’s best in a few key metrics.

Among 22 RBs with 200+ carries in 2022, Allgeier ranked 5th in yards per carry (4.93), 3rd in yards after contact per attempt (3.58), and 8th in missed tackles forced (51). Bijan Robinson is going to see a majority of the work, and rightfully so – but Tyler Allgeier can be a plus handcuff with serious value if anything would happen Bijan this year.