Is Austin Ekeler a Bust? ❌

Never thought I’d be begging for preseason football, yet here we are. Still a little over a month out from the regular season – keep holding on!

What’s in store:

• The Lions acquire a new weapon, and Jordan Addison lives life fast. Can Denzel Mims revive his career after staying grounded with the Jets?

• Is the current RB2 on Underdog a candidate to be a bust? It’s obviously a bold claim, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t happen.

• Ace your draft with draft tips from Zach! It’s easy to get caught up in the actual selection of players – he offers a few things to keep in mind when you sit down to build your championship roster.

• Can Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle repeat as a fantasy WR1 duo? As long as Tua Tagovailoa is under center, Tyler believes it could happen.

• WR Denzel Mims escapes New York via trade, looks for fresh start in Detroit

  • With the Jets receiving little compensation from the Lions in exchange for the former 2nd-round pick, there’s no reason to believe that Mims will see any significant playing time in 2023, especially later in the season. We can speculate that the Lions might view Mims as a high-upside flier that can add depth to the Detroit receiving corps while WR Jameson Williams serves his six-game suspension, but given Mims’ track record so far in the league and the state of the Lions offensive arsenal being crowded as is, it’s difficult to project realistic fantasy relevance from the move. Mims played three seasons in New York without scoring a touchdown, and his exit was, like fellow Jets draft pick and WR Elijah Moore, rather unceremonious. Mims can be left on waivers and likely won’t come off the board in drafts as we draw nearer to the start of the regular season.

• RB Isiah Pacheco reaffirms that he’ll be ready to suit up for Week 1

  • Nothing more to see here. After conflicting reports yesterday and participating in team drills in a non-contact jersey, Pacheco asserted that he’ll “absolutely” be ready for the Chiefs Kickoff Weekend tilt with the upstart Lions. Pacheco can safely be treated as though he will be healthy for 2023 until further notice.

• Vikings rookie clocks in at blazing fast 140 mph on Thursday

  • Too bad he wasn’t running. Minnesota’s first round WR Jordan Addison was cited by state police for speeding and reckless driving in the early hours of the day, per Kevin Seifert on Twitter. While we at Upper Hand certainly don’t advise operating a motor vehicle at that speed for any reason, the citation is unlikely to carry with it any formal punishment by the league. These types of issues haven’t been problematic or cost many players, if any, time on the field, but it’s not exactly what you want to hear about from the young receiver shortly ahead of the 2023 season.

• I haven’t drafted a whole lot of Austin Ekeler this year. At the price that he’s going, I’m drafting way more of the top 4 WRs, and CMC. And by the time all 5 of those guys are off the board, Ekeler is off the board, too, but by someone else. Does Ekeler have the upside he’s been showing the last few years? Of course… but here’s why I haven’t been drafting him.

• If you’re drafting Ekeler, you have relatively full confidence that he’s going to be that guy… but the Chargers just changed their offensive coordinator. And yes, Ekeler is a weapon in the receiving game on a pass heavy offense, but Justin Herbert checked it down at the 2nd highest rate last year - is that going to happen again with Kellen Moore coming in?

• When Keenan Allen was hurt last year, who was Herbert supposed to throw it to? You had Mike Williams, but he was a downfield target. Who was their short to intermediate target? They just didn’t have one. And now you have Keenan Allen potentially staying healthy this year, you have Quentin Johnston, one of the best after the catch receivers in this class - you know he’s going to get the ball to see what he can do with it after the catch. We can also see the tight ends more involved, specifically Gerald Everett with a higher route participation this year with Moore who used Dalton Schultz heavily in Dallas…

• And with Keenan Allen on the field last year? Ekeler’s targets dropped by almost 4 per game…

• I’m looking at Fantasy Life NFL Data profiles right now on Fantasylife.com, and it’s interesting that Ekeler last year was targeted on 28% of his routes run - absolutely insane. In contrast, Pollard was targeted on only 20% of his routes run… and from an efficiency standpoint, looking at yards/route run, Ekeler was at 1.55 YPRR, and Pollard was at 1.45. Yards after the catch/reception, Ekeler was at 7.9, and Pollard was at 8.5 - 3rd highest in the league last year among qualifying RBs.

• Is it possible that Ekeler isn’t as ridiculously utilized in the receiving game, especially given the fact that the Chargers have more weapons this year than the Cowboys did last year? It’s possible. And is dumping it down to your RB an efficient way to run an offense? No, it’s not. Is it utilizing Justin Herbert’s strengths? No, it’s not. A 6.9 average depth of target for Justin Herbert last year? Come on. That was 29th in the league last year among qualifying QBs.

• And we haven’t even hit the fact that we don’t know how this goal line role is going to shake out. Ekeler has been the most efficient RB within the 5 yard line - those goal line carries, he’s been getting it done. But that was really just a thing with his previous offensive coordinator. Joe Lombardi was the one who made that change 2 years ago when he came in. He had 9 rushing TDs before that year, and 25 rushing TDs over the last two seasons, and now we have Moore who clearly preferred a bigger back at the goal line last year, despite Pollard being a lot bigger than Ekeler.

• Just not a rock solid pick, and I think there’s a chance, given his price, that he busts.

• I can’t stress it enough – run mock drafts and practice adjusting your strategy and approach on a dime. Drafts are unpredictable and a sudden 5-pick run on a position just ahead of your selection is going to force you to change your plan, regardless of where in the draft it happens. No two scenarios are the same across drafts, obviously, but having experienced your plans unraveling before in a low-stakes environment will help you better prepare for the real thing on draft day.

• One other point about these mock drafts – do your best to mock against real people, or use Underdog. It can still work if you’re drafting alone against bots, but it’s easy to just close the tab and exit the draft room if your plan doesn’t come together exactly as you envisioned it. I’m speaking from experience here – when you mock, do everything you can to convince yourself it’s the real thing to best simulate draft day. There’s no getting up and walking away from your league’s draft, so practice making the most of being dealt a bad hand – or one you didn’t expect.

• Don’t draft too many players from the same team. Yes, it can be enticing to do so – especially if a player falls that would be a solid fit on your team. But without diversifying across multiple teams, you’re going to be at the mercy of the team you drafted up. The lows will be very low, but even the highs could be diluted – if you draft a QB, RB, and WR from the same team, and the passing game gets going but the run game is a non factor, you might end up with dead weight on your roster. The number of times a fantasy team has a QB finish with 25+ points, a receiver with 30+, and a RB with 20+ is very low, and the offense would have to be hitting on all cylinders and follow a shootout script for that to happen.

• Don’t avoid players because they’re on a team you don’t like. I used to do this when I first started out – as a Cowboys fan, I’d steer clear of Eagles, Giants, and Commanders players. Safe to say I missed out on the best of Odell’s career – don’t be like young me. Look at it this way - when your team plays the other team that you don’t like, your team will either win the game (a win for you) or the player on the other team will have a great fantasy day against your team. In either scenario, you’re either enjoying watching your real team win or tasting the bittersweetness of your fantasy player crushing your real team.

Tyreek Hill (WR - Miami Dolphins):

It was Tyreek Hill’s first season away from Kansas City, joining the Miami Dolphins via trade last offseason and moving away from Patrick Mahomes as his QB. That move, away from a proven elite Andy Reid offense with the best QB in the NFL, raised major security concerns heading into 2022 for Hill.

Hill then turned around and had a career year, both for production and consistency, bringing in 119 catches for over 1,700 yards and 9 total TDs as the WR3, including performances of 13+ points in all but two games.

He could’ve had an even better 2022 season if not for multiple concussions to Tua Tagovailoa. In games where Tua was fully healthy, Hill was the WR2 in PPR scoring posting 15+ points in all but one game with Tua as his QB and averaging 21.7 PPG.

There’s no doubt that Hill should be taken as a top-5 WR off the board this season with the potential to finish as the top-scoring WR in fantasy. How highly you value him will almost certainly come down to how confident you are in Tua’s ability to remain on the field.

Jaylen Waddle (WR - Miami Dolphins):

Coming off a fantastic rookie season in 2021 that saw him rank as the WR13 in PPR scoring with over 100 catches, over 1,000 yards, and 7 TDs, many, including myself, anticipated a drop-off in production for Jaylen Waddle with the acquisition of Tyreek Hill.

The addition of Hill in the offense significantly impacted Waddle’s workload, dropping him from 141 targets in 2021 to just 117 in 2022 (with an extra game), but it did the opposite for his efficiency. Waddle saw his yards per catch nearly double, hitting an absurd 18.1 figure (most of any WR with 20+ catches), and saw his overall production finish inside the top-8 WRs in points.

It was a big surprise, but Waddle ended up being the efficiency-based producer between him and Hill, which gives him week-winning upside (25+ points in 3 games) but also leaves him far more susceptible to poor performances (4 games of under 6 points).

It’s difficult to pass on him as a low-end WR1 as no other WRs beyond that point closely compare to Waddle’s production, but he’s a player that I would be “tongue-in-cheek” over drafting. He’s not a player that I will necessarily target on draft day, especially considering his price (2nd round), but would take him if there’s not a better option available.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Only four tight ends in 2022 registered at least 100 targets, and you can probably guess the top 3: Travis Kelce (150), T.J. Hockenson (123), and Mark Andrews (110). The fourth tight end? That would be Rams TE Tyler Higbee, clocking in with 104 total targets over a full 17-game season.

Higbee cracked double-digit targets four times last year while also seeing at least five targets in 10 of 17 games. While he wasn’t efficient at all with that volume (his 8.6 yards per reception was T-85th lowest in the NFL among all TEs), he didn’t have to be en route to a quantity over quality PPR TE6 finish to the year.

With Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford returning in 2023 and rookie WR Puka Nacua likely to work his way into the target distribution, Higbee will probably see his target numbers go down slightly. But seeing as Nacua is a rookie, after all, and that the Rams lack WR depth beyond Cooper Kupp, Higbee should continue to be a high-volume player at TE with a relatively safe low-end TE1 floor.