Not sure if I can handle another two weeks of preseason football, especially knowing the regular season is so close.

What’s in store:

• Kendre Miller goes down in first preseason action 😔 The Saints backfield just got a little less crowded - for now.

• DON’T draft these three wide receivers. At least, picking RBs early in drafts. Faraz has two zero-RB targets for your fantasy squad that are currently going back-to-back in Underdog drafts.

• Tiered Rankings: Quarterbacks. See Zach’s first two tiers heading into 2023!

• Can Ja’Marr Chase be the top scoring player in fantasy? See what Tyler thinks and continue reading!

• Saints RB Kendre Miller suffers knee sprain in Preseason Week 1

  • No timeline was immediately provided for Miller to return, but it seems like the rookie third-rounder could miss some significant time this preseason. Miller had a golden opportunity to carve out a role for himself in the Saints offense with Alvin Kamara sidelined due to his suspension, but that’s likely to change if Miller will indeed have to sit out part or the rest of the preseason. The Saints backfield has suffered two hits to its depth in the past week or so, so it’s possible that we see the Saints make a move for a free agent at running back sooner rather than later.

• Colts HC Shane Steichen says that Jonathan Taylor should rejoin the team next week

  • While this does qualify as promising news, especially considering the drama that’s unfolded in the past few weeks between Taylor and the Colts organization, it’s far from reassurance that Taylor will play for the Colts come Week 1. Taylor has requested a trade from Indianapolis, which was immediately denied. For obvious reasons, he has become disgruntled with the Colts and has spent time away from the team – but the Colts look to be prepared to stand their ground, even considering placing him on the NFI list for 2023. There’s plenty yet to unfold in the coming weeks, making Taylor a high-risk fantasy selection for this year – even bearing this news in mind.

• Jaylen Waddle - WR11, 17.9 (2nd Round)

  • Waddle was 1st in yards per target over expectation, which means he's good, but it also means he could be in store for a slight negative regression. He also had the highest differential in expected fantasy points vs actual fantasy points.

  • Waddle only had a 20% target share last year, while Tyreek led the league alongside Davante Adams with a 28% target share. His target and air yards share lined up with that of a WR2 rather than a WR1.

  • With all that being said, he's going to have his huge blow-up games that wins you a few weeks. Just for those who might think a healthy Tua is the answer: he only averaged 6.4 targets and 4.1 catches per game with Tua at the helm. WR11 off the board is too high for me.

• Tee Higgins - WR14, 24.8 (2-3 Turn)

  • Ja'Marr Chase missed Weeks 8-12 last year, and Tee Higgins ended up averaging 18.8 PPR fantasy points during that span. Unfortunately, he has to compete with Chase, which limited Higgins to only a 21% overall target share (adjusted for injured games).

  • Higgins should be a solid WR2, but he's being drafted as a high-end WR2 right now. There's a pretty wide tier-gap between the low-end WR1 and the high-end WR2s, but there isn't enough of an ADP gap between the two tiers.

  • It is possible that Higgins takes a Year 3 leap along with Joe Burrow in a pass-first offense, but missed time for Burrow in camp due to his calf strain isn't helping.

• Michael Pittman Jr. - WR36, 70.2 (6-7 Turn)

  • Michael Pittman has the talent profile of an alpha WR1. He has the size and separation skills that any QB would love. The target share should be there for Pittman, but there will be questions around whether Anthony Richardson will be able to keep him propped up as a solid WR2 for fantasy.

  • His 1.44 yards/route run was terribly inefficient last year - that ranked 30th of 34 among WRs with 100+ targets. I think that was a product of the QB situation, but while I think Richardson will allow Pittman to work more downfield, we might see inconsistencies. His 24% target share and 30% air yards share is usually indicative of more production; in fact, his 925 yards on 99 catches last year was the least yards ever for anyone who has had 99+ catches in an NFL season.

  • Pittman will go as far as Richardson goes, because there is no question about Pittman's ability. Side note: If Jonathan Taylor does in fact get traded, the offense will take a hit... but that could mean we see more targets for PIttman.

Tier 1: Givers of Positional Advantage

• Josh Allen - He’s been the premier fantasy QB for the past three years, supplementing 35+ passing touchdowns annually with over 100 rushing attempts in each season. He would have remained in this tier anyway even if Stefon Diggs was his only weapon - but Dalton Kincaid could prove to be a massive No. 2 for Allen. 👀.

• Jalen Hurts - An absolute cheat code on the ground, he’s scored 10+ touchdowns rushing in each of the past two years. He took the next step passing last year and enters 2023 with an even better supporting cast than 2022, headlined by D’Andre Swift.

• Patrick Mahomes - Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL, and he’s the lone signal caller that can keep pace with the best rushing QBs via the pass. He’s an underrated runner, though, leading the league last year in touchdowns off scrambles with 4 – elevating him into the untouchable fantasy category.

• Lamar Jackson - The Ravens executed a full revamp of his supporting cast, down to his OC. Zay Flowers, OBJ, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews make the best receiving corps Lamar has had to date, and Todd Monken will help bring the best out of the passing game to complement Lamar’s elite ability on the ground.

Tier 2: Givers of Positional Advantage… Sometimes

• Justin Fields - Lamar Jackson lite. He can lead the league in QB rushing this season, but there’s almost no chance that he reaches the 4000+ yard mark he says he’s aiming for without a drastic increase in passing volume. That might not happen, but if he can get to 3000 yards, Fields will be in good shape to claim his first Top-5 fantasy finish of his career.

• Justin Herbert - Kellen Moore coming over should make a world of difference for Herbert in 2023, who spent last year shamefully underutilizing his howitzer arm under since-fired OC Joe Lombardi. He still threw for over 4700 yards, but it took just under 700 attempts to do so. That number should come down a bit if the efficiency increases for Herbert, who has his best supporting cast to date with the addition of Quentin Johnston in the draft.

• Joe Burrow - Burrow has a non-zero chance to finish as the fantasy QB1 if his weapons can stay healthy. His ability to compete with the rushing quarterbacks in fantasy production through the air is Mahomesian, and he offers a little upside on the ground as well. He’s the safest bet of any quarterback in this tier.

• Trevor Lawrence - Trevor Lawrence was the QB7 from Week 12 on through the end of 2022, and the Jaguars have added a huge weapon in Calvin Ridley since then. The expectations are high, but they’re warranted seeing as the former 1st overall pick scored 30 total TDs last year and threw for over 4000 yards. That should be the baseline for Lawrence in 2023.

Similar to Burrow, Chase followed the same trajectory as his QB – maintaining (and exceeding) his 2021 production but flipping from an extremely inconsistent option to a rather consistent one, finishing as a top-10 WR in Sig CR (0.443) last year.

Chase did drop from the WR5 to the WR11 in PPR scoring in 2022, primarily due to an injury in Week 7 that forced him to miss 4 games (plus the Bills/Bengals game suspension later in the year). However, he did see a massive increase in workload (7.5 targets per game in ’21 to 11.2 targets per game in ’22) and in per-game production (17.9 PPG to 20.2 PPG).

There’s no doubt that he’s one of the league’s premier WRs, and 2023 presents the potential for him to continue his upward trajectory. Chase is one of the few players (Jefferson, Kupp, Hill, Adams, etc.) that have the realistic potential to finish as the top-scoring WR in fantasy.

As an elite WR1, you’re expecting to pay the price for production. There’s no question he’ll be a 1st round pick and likely the WR2 or WR3 off the board – the question is: when in the 1st round will he go?

If it’s 7th overall or later, I’d strongly consider (and recommend) going with him, even despite my heavy preference for prioritizing RBs in the early rounds. If he costs a price of 1.06 or higher, I will likely pass and favor the RBs or Justin Jefferson.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Davante Adams has demonstrated that he is essentially a QB-proof fantasy option at WR, finishing as the PPR WR3 in 2022 with Derek Carr at QB after back-to-back Top-2 finishes in 2021 and 2020 with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Adams will once again be an excellent fantasy receiver in 2023 - but could there be reason for concern about his true ceiling?

Among wide receivers with at least 100 receptions in 2022, Davante Adams posted the 2nd-lowest catch rate in the NFL (59.5%). He relied on deep targets to produce more than any other WR in the NFL, scoring a league-leading 125 points on passes that travel 20+ yards in the air. That’s all fine and dandy, until you consider the switch at QB that he’ll have to navigate in 2023.

His former QB in 2022, Derek Carr, threw the ball deep at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL (13.7% of passes travelled 20+ yards in the air), while also ranking fourth in total deep passes among all QBs with 69. His new QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, had the 4th-lowest deep ball % in the NFL last year (8.8%), while simultaneously throwing the third-fewest total deep passes (27).

We know Davante Adams is an elite talent, but the script could be completely different for him in 2023. That raises a level of uncertainty that warrants him potentially falling out of “sure thing” category among fantasy WRs – and could potentially limit his fantasy ceiling this year.