Avoid These Two Draft Busts ⚠️

All of these training camp videos got me feeling some kind of way 😏… *enters the Underdog Draft Room*

What’s in store:

• No QB competition necessary for this year’s 1st overall pick 😤 Scoot over, Andy Dalton. The Panthers are ready to enter a new era in 2023.

• Don’t get caught in the trap! ⚠️ Faraz spent some time minesweeping the draft board and has identified two players that could bust in 2023.

• Do you, too, like to live dangerously? Zach offers four quarterbacks with league-winning upside, but also a leauge-losing floor.

• Wait, why aren’t we drafting Mahomes? The consensus best QB in the game might not necessarily be a value at his ADP… Tyler dives in.

• Panthers HC Frank Reich names rookie QB Bryce Young as the team’s starter for Week 1

  • The news comes after Andy Dalton was rumored to have a chance to challenge Young for the starting job early in the offseason, but the keys to the offense have been officially passed to the 2023 1st overall pick. This was the expected outcome after the Panthers mortgaged their future to land the former Alabama superstar, but Young will now have all of training camp to integrate with the offense and build chemistry with the starters. His supporting cast in year 1 will be limited to seasoned veterans and young players looking to establish themselves in the league, which could potentially limit his fantasy production in the short term. He should be left on the waiver wire for the time being in non-superflex and 1QB leagues.

• Antonio Gibson anticipates being the Commanders’ 3rd-down back in 2023

  • Gibson came out and said this while talking to the media on Wednesday, solidifying the idea that he’ll be the passing down back in Eric Bienemy’s offense. That being said, a role as the team’s “3rd-down back” seems to suggest that the Commanders still plan to feature a heavy dose of 2nd-year RB Brian Robinson on early downs. History tells us that shouldn’t be a particularly concerning development, if true, as Bienemy’s offense in Kansas City last year featured a similar 1-2 combination in the backfield where both players were fantasy relevant down the stretch – and it was the receiving back with the upside in that scenario. Gibson has proven himself to be among the league’s best in pass-catching ability since entering the league in 2020, logging at least 35 receptions in each of his three years in the league. That number could certainly increase in 2023 with a Sam Howell at QB.

• RB Tony Pollard “Pretty much at 100 percent” heading into camp, will be eased into Cowboys camp

  • It appears to be all systems go for the Cowboys running back entering camp. Lingering questions about his health stemming from a tibia fracture in last year’s NFC Divisional Playoffs have warranted consideration up to this point, but with Pollard cleared for training camp ahead of the new year, those concerns can be left to fly by the wayside. Pollard was one of the most efficient RBs in the league last year and now inherits a massive workload left by Ezekiel Elliott’s departure this offseason. He’ll be slowly worked back into a full complement of snaps to avoid setbacks, but barring any of those, Pollard should be good to go for 2023.

• RB Rashaad Penny took first-team snaps in the first practice of Eagles training camp

  • Is it time to start the Rashaad Penny hype train for 2023? We might be jumping the gun a little, and this report could definitely be a bit inflammatory considering it is the first day of practice, after all. But it’s worth noting when the player in question was 2nd in yards per attempt in the first five games of 2022 and will now be running behind arguably the league’s best offensive line. While there’s plenty of training camp left to unfold, it seems like the Eagles have no hesitation utilizing Penny doing what he does best, and that’s running the football. If anything can be taken from this report, it would be that Penny is clearly in the lead to be the team’s early down runner – a role that could suit him very well if he can stay healthy. That sound you just heard? That’s just fantasy football players who drafted Penny at his current 9th Round ADP.

• Deebo Samuel - WR16 on Sleeper (3-4 Turn)

  • Deebo Samuel averaged 11 PPR fantasy points/game last year after CMC joined the team. Now, he was banged up for some time, so that number isn’t necessarily a fault of his. And he’s going to have his games - before CMC joined, 15.2 fantasy points/game. A lot more doable. But a lot of those short targets he was getting are going to go to McCaffrey now like we saw happen last year! They just have way too many mouths to feed in San Francisco. Deebo has the ability to take any catch to the house, and he a solid 22% target share last year, but if Aiyuk takes a step forward, and you have Kittle and McCaffrey knowing the offense more, it’s really hard for me to bet on Deebo coming through on his WR16 price tag.

  • He’s not being targeted downfield at all, only 15% air yards share - WR3s average 27% on average according to Fantasy Life data profiles. WR3s!! So we’re really depending very heavily on his after the catch ability and the fact that he gets some extra carries as well… but with CMC and Elijah Mitchell not sure Deebo is getting those money touches as much as he did two seasons ago is something I want to bet on.

• Jaylen Waddle - WR11 on Sleeper (Late-2nd Round)

  • I haven’t drafted a whole lot of Jaylen Waddle at his price, and there are a few reasons for that. He’s an extremely dynamic player, and you can point to the fact that he over performed with his opportunity because he’s so good - but there’s also a chance that if that opportunity doesn’t come up, that he regresses a bit.

  • Among all the top WRs last year, he had highest differential in expected fantasy points vs actual fantasy points. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and AJ Brown also outperformed, but they’re also getting a much higher target share than Waddle (just a 20% target share last year). He’s being drafted as a low-end WR1 or borderline WR1, but we know that true fantasy WR1s can’t sustain that expected fantasy production with only a 20% target share.

  • Plus, we know that Tyreek is going to eat first in that passing offense. He was up at 28% target share alongside Davante Adams - tied for tops in the league. And according to Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life, those two underlying metrics for Waddle are more in line with WR2 and WR3 numbers. He outperformed his opportunity because he’s a baller, but it might not be sustainable. Its possible that you’re drafting him as the WR11 but he ends up finishing as the WR18.

  • In Weeks 7-16 with Tua playing last year, he only averaged 6.4 targets/game and 4.1 catches/game. It came with some good fantasy weeks, but damn, I can’t have my WR11 off the board having such limited opportunity.

• Lamar Jackson - QB4, 35.1 (3-4 Turn)

  • What? Lamar Jackson a boom-bust? Blasphemy. Well, not quite – the Ravens did go out and get him the weapons he desired, but things are only better on paper as things stand right now. He’s also struggled to stay healthy as of late, starting just 12 games in each of the past two seasons. He also had an extreme cool-off in production after a red hot start to last year, going from 34.8 FPPG in Weeks 1-3 to just 17.2 PPG in eight starts after that. As the QB4 off the board, Lamar carries the most risk of any passer in the Top-5 at the position and could bust at that ADP.

• Anthony Richardson - QB11, 104.5 (9th Round)

  • When you open the fantasy football dictionary and turn to the “boom-bust” entry, Anthony Richardson’s photo appears there. The sky is the limit for the most athletic QB to enter the NFL in the league’s history, but the situation isn’t perfect and he hasn’t solidified himself as the unquestioned QB1 for 2023. He can overcome being a not-so-stellar real-life QB with extreme rushing upside, just as Justin Fields did, but if the 4th overall pick would struggle in season, the chance of him not being able to lean on the run in certain games – or of him being benched in favor of Gardner Minshew or Sam Ehlinger – would leave him unstartable. No player has a larger range of outcomes than Richardson.

• Sam Howell - QB27, 198.4 (17th Round)

  • Howell had one start in 2022 against a stacked Cowboys defense, and he was able to turn in a QB7 finish on the week featuring a touchdown through the air and on the ground. That’s all fantasy managers have to work with as far as film goes for Howell, but he was an excellent college quarterback that fell late in the draft with Eric Bienemy as his OC. He’ll also be able to lean on a great supporting cast led by Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Howell has the potential to break into the low-end QB1 range at no cost to you on draft day, but there’s always the chance as well that his Week 18 performance last year was a fluke and he isn’t that guy.

• Desmond Ridder - QB29, 206.7 (17-18 Turn)

  • Another second-year QB with minimal experience, Ridder finds himself heading up perhaps the most intriguing offense in the NFL heading into the new season. The offense – especially the passing game and the fantasy prospects of Drake London and Kyle Pitts – will go as Ridder goes, setting him up for either a resounding success in year two or a pitiful failure. However, in a situation where other QBs have historically been able to produce simply by being efficient, Ridder has room to crack the Top-15 with an excellent backfield tandem (Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier), plus the aforementioned weapons in the receiving game and an excellent offensive line. If the wheels would come off though, and Ridder doesn’t play like an NFL QB, there’s a chance that Taylor Heinicke could relieve him of his duties as the Falcons QB – a clear and present risk that could result in a total bust.

Make that five consecutive seasons of 4,200+ yards plus four of the last five seasons with 5,000+ total yards and 39+ TDs for Mahomes.

He’s clearly the best QB in the NFL and one of the surefire elites in fantasy football, establishing that with arguably the best season of his career (5,600+ total yards, 45 TDs, 12 INTs) in his first year without WR Tyreek Hill, finishing as the overall QB1 and winning NFL MVP.

You know what you’re getting with Mahomes – elite weekly and yearly consistency with him posting 15+ points in every game last year and 17+ points in all but one game (Week 18 where he was pulled to avoid injury).

The only thing holding him back for fantasy, and what has made Josh Allen the QB1 in two of the last three years (and would’ve been it again this year if not for the Bills/Bengals suspension) is rushing totals. Mahomes has the ability to scramble when necessary, posting 300+ rushing yards in each of the last three years, but isn’t a “designed run” type of QB.

That’s it – that’s the only negative that you can find for Mahomes.

Likely seeing an improved receiving corps this season (full year of Kadarius Toney, return of Justyn Ross), there’s no reason to believe Mahomes finishes outside the top-3 fantasy QBs barring injury.

Unfortunately, those that aren’t hardcore fantasy players will likely reach on him, reflected in his 2nd/3rd round price tag. As I said with Josh Allen, the production is there, but the positional value in a QB that doesn’t definitively separate himself from the field makes that price tag overvalued compared to the availability of QBs offering slightly less production a few rounds later.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley has spent over a year away from football since his suspension in 2021, but if training camp videos and reports have been any indicator, it doesn’t appear the time off has been affecting him the way it would most people. If you want to see what we’re talking about, have a look for yourself:

In his last 33 games played dating back to the 2019 season, Calvin Ridley has garnered at least 8 targets 21 separate times. He’s also had less than 6 targets in a game just four times in that span – in other words, Ridley has seen at least 6 targets in 27 of his past 31 games played. All while competing with Julio Jones and dealing with a past-his-prime Matt Ryan at QB.

One could argue that his target competition, while there’s plenty of it, doesn’t match the quality he worked against in Atlanta. And with Trevor Lawrence set to take the next step at QB, Ridley should continue to push those numbers upward and see plenty of targets in the Jaguars offense in 2023.