The beginning of OTAs are upon us! 🤙

Welcome to offseason hype season. We all know better than to get hung up on a clip from training camp or coachspeak, but it’s all we have to cling to for the next three months. Buckle up, it’s going to be a long summer.

What’s in store:

• ‘No timeline’ on a potential T.J. Hockenson return in 2024. The star tight end is reportedly making good progress, but it’s too early to tell when he could see the field again..

• Drake Maye receives no special treatment, opens camp as QB3. We understand having him behind Jacoby Brissett, but come on, behind Zappe, too?

• Target THIS Packers pass catcher in your next dynasty trade. 🧀His name isn’t Christian Watson or Jayden Reed 👀

• A screaming value in the late rounds of Underdog drafts! Zach presents the case for an NFC South QB at cost.

• Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson says there’s no timeline yet on a potential return in 2024 from his torn ACL and MCL

  • Not exactly the news we were hoping to hear about the star tight end’s recovery, but also not damning news at this point in the offseason, either. Regardless of what the next three months look like for Hockenson, the fact of the matter remains that he’s likely to to miss some time, if not significant time, as he makes his return from the ACL and MCL tears that ended his 2023 season early. Operating in the Kirk Cousins-led offense, Hockenson was able to hold his own and dominate even running opposite Justin Jefferson in his two seasons in Minnesota, but his 2024 season is likely to look different than the overall TE4 and TE2 finishes he’s put up, respectively, the past two seasons. If not for the injury last year, Hockenson would have reasonably been able to break the 1000-yard threshold for the first time in his career, falling just short with a 95-960-5 line in 15 games. He faces a steep challenge to get back to that level of production this year on the heels of his knee injury, especially with rookie QB J.J. McCarthy presumably at the controls for Minnesota’s first campaign sans Cousins. Pair that with the return of a healthy Justin Jefferson and dynamic No. 2 in Jordan Addison, and Hockenson’s TE13 ADP on Underdog is not only understandable, but might also be a bit high given the circumstances.

• Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa present at voluntary offseason workouts amid contract extension negotiations

  • Tua’s intent to participate in the team’s voluntary offseason workout program was drawn into question late last week when rumors swirled that he would skip as a way of expressing his displeasure with the state of his contract negotiations. However, that report appears to have been all smoke as Tua took the practice field with the rest of the team for day one of the Dolphins’ offseason program. The southpaw signal caller enters year 5 without a long term deal as of the writing of this newsletter, and after watching Jared Goff land his own $50M+/year extension with the Lions, Tagoaviloa will almost certainly be looking to match or top that deal with his own. Tua has been very productive as a passer when he’s been healthy with the help of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in the receiving game and Mike McDaniel calling plays, but has only been a middling fantasy quarterback over that same stretch of time. Barring unforeseen circumstances, fantasy managers should proceed without hesitation in drafting Tua in all formats, as a holdout over his contract doesn’t appear imminent at this time.

• Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye works as QB3 on the team’s depth chart on the first day of OTAs behind Brissett, Zappe

  • Maybe the Patriot way hasn’t completely left the building with the departure of the legendary Bill Belichick. Despite drafting Maye with the third overall pick in last month’s draft (and turning down plenty of reasonable offers to trade back), New England appears to be keen on having him earn his stripes before officially being named the team’s starter for the 2024 season. What’s not surprising is that Brissett opened up camp ahead of Maye, but what is surprising – at least to a certain extent – is that Zappe was taking reps ahead of the big-bodied rookie out of North Carolina. Luckily for Maye and his prospective fantasy managers, it’s not even June yet and the odds of the embattled Mac Jones clone usurping the starting gig from a seasoned veteran and a dynamic, high-potential rookie is effectively zero. Regardless of who the Patriots trot out onto the field in Week 1, they’ll have their work cut out for them with a very young and unproven set of weapons in the receiving game. Headlined by rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, New England’s retooled offensive attack could reasonably take a good part of the season to acclimate to the NFL climate and ultimately limit the fantasy upside of players like Drake Maye in 2024.

Here’s a WR you need to buy now before it’s too late: Dontayvion Wicks. He’s currently the cheapest Packers WR you can acquire in dynasty. There have definitely been some rumblings around Wicks, so he’s a bit of a popular add right now for a lot of teams, and there’s a reason for that. But since he hasn’t completely blown up on the football field just yet, there’s still a window in which you can which acquire him.

First of all, his 1.94 yards/route run was 5th run among qualifying rookie WRs last year - only behind Puka, Tank Dell, Rashee Rice, and Jayden Reed. That was ahead of Zay flowers and Jordan Addison. And 1.94 yards/route run, to put into context - is VERY good for a rookie WR, and he did his the 250 route minimum threshold that we like to see for future sustainability. There were 74 NFL WRs who had at least 60 targets last year, and Wicks ranked 27th in YPRR as a rookie.

And check this out - guys like Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, Tyreek Hill were Top-4 in QB passer rating when targeted last year - and Wicks was 6th on that list among all NFL WRs.

He’s attached to Jordan Love, who we now know is good, and according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Wicks is now confirmed good. Buy now before it’s too late.

QB Baker Mayfield, TB (QB21)

If you’re in a 2QB or superflex league (or whatever other format that affords you the opportunity to start two quarterbacks in your weekly lineup), this is a PSA to not waste one of your premium picks on your second quarterback –because you can wait until the 14th round to get last year’s QB10 in total points. That’s right, Baker Mayfield is currently coming off the board as the QB21 in Underdog drafts; that’s later than Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, and even Aaron Rodgers (who played a grand total of four snaps last year). And the craziest part is, Mayfield’s supporting cast is essentially identical to last season’s, with added help on the interior of the O-line from the draft in first-round guard Graham Barton.

Mayfield finished the fantasy season strong in 2023, ranking as a top-12 weekly QB in three of the final five weeks before two back-to-back 25+ point outings in the wild card and divisional rounds of the playoffs. With Mike Evans on the perimeter, Mayfield was able to air it out early and often; among QBs with 10+ starts, his 12.9% deep throw rate ranked sixth. Evans also benefitted from the second-most air yards (1916) of any wide receiver in the league –another testament to Baker’s ability to push the ball downfield. And Mayfield was right to do so – Evans scored a league-leading 13 touchdown through the air, accounting for just under half of Mayfield’s 28 passing touchdowns on the year.

Since being bounced from the playoffs by the Lions, the Buccaneers have locked up the tandem with long-term extensions for Baker (3 years, $100M) and Evans (2 years, $52M). They’ve also added talent through the draft in Oregon’s Bucky Irving and Washington’s Jalen McMillan, on top of having Chris Godwin and Cade Otton in the mix, as well. And the switch to Liam Coen as offensive coordinator to introduce more play action doesn’t hurt, either. In other words: if things have only gotten better around Baker heading into 2024, what’s his ADP doing down in the double-digit rounds?

Stigma around his name? Possibly. Or maybe he reeks of Geno Smith’s one-off comeback year in 2022… he also got a 3-year deal following that season. But if people are going to hang their hats on that and eschew the stats in favor of a narrative, I’ll gladly take advantage of the bargain barrel price that Baker is going for right now. My fantasy team will wake up feeling dangerous with him as my superflex QB.