Behold: the newest volume-based RB2 play! 🍽️

I don’t think you have to worry about anyone’s fantasy team getting off to a fast start tonight like they did last week.

What’s in store:

• Rhamondre Stevenson is OUT, Najee Harris is questionable… this isn’t going to be anything like last Thursday’s game, is it? 🥺

• Dallas Goedert makes his return against Dallas, in Dallas. He jumps right into the top 12 of a thin fantasy position.

• Faraz is talking running backs heading into Week 14. Is Devon Achane to be trusted, and can Kyren Williams defy the tough matchup against Baltimore?

• Speaking of Baltimore… they haven’t been kind to NFC quarterbacks over the past calendar year and a half. See what that means for Matthew Stafford.

• Eagles TE Dallas Goedert returns to full practice Wednesday ahead of Week 14 matchup vs Cowboys

  • Goedert appears to be on track to return to action against the same team he faced when he went down with the injury back in Week 9. In Goedert’s absence, WR Devonta Smith has experienced a fantasy relevance renaissance - he’s averaged seven catches and 100 receiving yards per game in the three weeks that Philly’s dynamic tight end has missed. With Goedert back, fantasy managers should temper expectations for Smith; meanwhile, Goedert’s managers can put him right back into their lineup as a solid TE1 against the Cowboys. Assuming he can stay healthy the rest of the way, fantasy managers can count on him for a solid weekly floor with decent upside in an offense that scores plenty of touchdowns.

• Steelers RB Najee Harris misses practice Tuesday and Wednesday, status in doubt for TNF vs Patriots

  • Harris’ injury comes out of left field on a short week for the Steelers and opens up the opportunity for Jaylen Warren to be an RB1 play against the Patriots tonight. New England kept things under control against the Chargers and Austin Ekeler last week and haven’t allowed more than 10 points in a game since Week 9, so the matchup is less than ideal. However, given Jaylen Warren’s extreme efficiency and a potential full workload for the first time in his career, he’ll profile as a top-12 play at the position against the Patriots. Warren has hung right around 12-15 touches per game since Pittsburgh’s week 6 bye and has three top-15 finishes to his name in that span. Warren would likely lead the backfield for this week and this week only assuming Najee’s injury isn’t anything serious - Harris will also have a longer than usual rest from Thursday night to next Sunday in Week 15.

• Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson officially ruled out for Week 14 matchup vs Steelers

  • Teammate Demario Douglas has also been ruled out for the Patriots’ game against Pittsburgh, leaving New England seriously undermanned on a short week. Stevenson’s absence opens up a strong opportunity for RB Ezekiel Elliott to cash in on the vacated work in Week 14 after handling 22 total opportunities in Week 13. At this point in his career and on a terrible Patriots offense, he offers little appeal, if any, when it comes to upside - but the potential for him to handle 25+ touches in this one effectively mandates that he be started as a solid volume play this week and as long as Stevenson is out. He remains inefficient on a per attempt basis (just 3.8 yards per carry is the second-lowest mark in a season of his career), but if he’s able to reel in a few passes like he did in Week 13, his fantasy floor will absolutely be usable in fantasy lineups this week.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR

• I have Kyren Williams as my overall RB3 despite the Rams going into Baltimore… and I know this might seem crazy, but Kyren is just getting some of the most elite usage we’re seeing out of any RB this season. The great thing is that we’re also seeing really awesome production alongside that usage, which we can’t say for a lot of RBs right now.

• He played on 94% of the Rams’ offensive snaps last week, and he got all the work. According to FantasyLife.com’s utilization report, he’s had 6 Top-10 finishes in eight games played this year, 4 of which were Top-5 finishes, to boot. He’s performed in some tough matchups this year; just look at last week when he did his thing against the Browns, and also Week 2 against San Francisco he was the overall RB1. He’s as must-start of a RB as you can get right right now even in a tough matchup. 

RB De’Von Achane, MIA

• I have De’Von Achane at 7… he was back last week and he took over in the 2nd half. Sure, the game was out of hand, but what stood out to me was that he left the game unscathed and now we can trust him more moving forward. Last week was a trust thing for me, so I tempered expectations, but he came through against the Commanders and now he’s officially back to 100%. He’s already had four Top-5 finishes this year, and if you only count the games he’s been healthy for, that’s four starts and four Top-5 finishes. Start him.

• I’m also starting Raheem Mostert… I think this is a game where the points can pile up once again for Miami. I expect Mostert to get his touches too – it won’t be the Devon Achane show and that’s it because he was very involved in the first half last week, and I expect him to be just as involved again. And with this high powered offense, Mostert’s just really tough to bench right now… I have him as a high-end RB2 this week.

RB Zack Moss, IND & RB Joe Mixon, CIN

• Zack Moss had a modest game last week - only 7.7 fantasy points en route to a finish outside the Top-24, but he’s an RB1 play for me this week. Make no mistake, the utilization was there - he was on the field for 94% of the Colts’ offensive snaps. He was THE guy in that backfield last week, and this is a much better matchup against Cincinnati, who are allowing 4.54 yards per carry to RBs this year - the 6th most in the NFL. Cincinnati is also top-10 in most TDs allowed per game to RBs… Moss has a great role and is walking into a great matchup - don’t get too discouraged from him not performing last week against a Titans defense giving up the 6th-fewest yards per carry to RBs this year.

• And in that same matchup… I brought Joe Mixon back up to RB17 this week, a huge delta from where I had him going into last week. There could be a lot of volume for Mixon this week - the Colts are giving up the 3rd most carries/game to running backs, the 5th most rushing yards/game, and the 2nd most rushing TDs/game. Would it surprise you then after hearing those stats that the Colts are giving up the 5th most fantasy points to RBs over the last 4 weeks and the 4th most over the course of the season? A lot of us wrote Mixon off once Burrow went down, but he hasn’t written back these past three weeks.

After a stretch of games from Weeks 1-11 to open the season that can only be rightly qualified as ‘mid’, Matthew Stafford has flipped the switch in over the past two weeks against the Cardinals and Browns. Since averaging just 14.8 fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-11 as the QB22 in that span, Stafford has tossed seven touchdown passes in his last two games and ranks as the overall QB6 in fantasy points per game (23.7) in that span. He rides that hot streak into a tough test in Week 14 against a Baltimore defense that has eaten NFC quarterbacks alive dating back to 2022 over an eight-game sample.

In eight games against NFC opponents since 2022, the Ravens have allowed just 12.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That number would rank dead last in the league this year in terms of average points per game allowed to QBs – and the Ravens actually do rank as the toughest defense in the NFL against fantasy quarterbacks overall on the year, as well - regardless of whether the team they’re facing is in the AFC or the NFC.

In that eight game stretch, just two fantasy quarterbacks have eclipsed 14 fantasy points in a game against Baltimore: Tom Brady (the GOAT), and Josh Dobbs (the outlier of outliers). As we mentioned before, Stafford himself was only averaging 14.8 points per game through Week 11 of this year and had thrown for one or fewer touchdowns in eight out of eleven games this year. The only NFC quarterback with a passing touchdown against the Ravens this year? That would be Josh Dobbs. Stafford has come on over the past two weeks, but he’ll be working against this trend when he takes the field for your fantasy team in the final week of the fantasy regular season.