The Brandon Aiyuk holdout is over + Redraft Kit!

Check out the latest video from the Upper Hand Fantasy YouTube channel: five players Faraz isn’t leaving his fantasy drafts without!

What’s in store:

• Get your last minute prep in for your drafts this weekend with the Upper Hand Fantasy Redraft Kit! CLICK HERE to get access to in depth player blurbs, advanced statistics, targets & avoids, and more!

• The Brandon Aiyuk holdout saga is OVER! Finally.

• Ja’Marr Chase is holding out... actually, never mind… actually, maybe? 😵‍💫 After practicing initially this past week, Ja’Marr has decided no, he doesn’t think he will.

• The old guys get the starting jobs over the young guns. Brissett and Wilson are set to start while Maye and Fields warm the bench.

• WR Brandon Aiyuk signs four-year, $120M contract with the 49ers to end rollercoaster negotiation process

  • …aaaaaaand exhale. Not a whole lot to analyze here because it was a lot of work for the 49ers and Aiyuk to maintain the status quo, but Aiyuk is officially back in San Francisco long-term and off the trade block after months of speculation. With Aiyuk returning to the 49ers, rookie first-round WR Ricky Pearsall will officially have to wait at least one more season (barring injury) to have a shot at fantasy relevance on the 49ers offense. Perhaps most notable is that the Niners will retain all of their major weapons for another season in 2024, setting up QB Brock Purdy nicely to continue as one of the league’s most underrated fantasy QBs at the helm of arguably the NFL’s most stacked offense. Aiyuk will be a borderline WR1 once again with the 49ers given the number of mouths there are to feed, but he’s proven to be one of the most efficient WRs in the league and can lean on that playmaking ability to remain not only relevant in fantasy for 2024, but dominant.

• Ja’Marr Chase continues holdout from Bengals practice Thursday, just days after participating for one day earlier this week

  • In what has been one of the more active off-seasons involving wide receiver holdouts in some time, Ja’Marr Chase’s on-and-off hold-in at Bengals practice very well may qualify as more confusing than Brandon Aiyuk’s – and that’s saying a lot. Just days after returning to practice this past Monday in what appeared to be a move to resolve the holdout for this offseason, Chase reported to practice late in street clothes Wednesday Thursday. The Bengals star receiver notably still has two years remaining on his current rookie deal signed when he was drafted in 2021, but appears to be intent on an early payday with numerous other notable receivers (Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb) signing mega deals of their own this offseason. Bengals HC Zac Taylor says that the situation is ‘day-to-day’ regarding Chase’s participation in practice and potential status for Week 1, but those are hardly comforting words for fantasy managers given that kickoff is less than a week away. It should be noted that holdouts rarely extend into the regular season and haven’t exactly been effective for those who do, so the expectation should still be that Chase finds his way onto the field for Week 1 barring a dramatic deterioration between Chase and the team. Take advantage of a falling ADP in the coming days as the situation continues, and don’t be afraid to draft him even if he could miss a game or two.

• WR Rashee Rice expected to be available for kickoff in 2024 and potentially beyond with legal situation currently ongoing

  • After remaining eerily quiet about the Chiefs’ receiver’s impending legal battle over the summer, the NFL issued an update on Rice’s case that should have Rice’s fantasy managers feeling very encouraged about his prospects in 2024. Despite the ongoing investigation into his street racing incident, Ian Rapaport reports that the NFL is unlikely to take action against Rice to punish him as long as the investigation remains open and stones remain unturned. Rice appears set to enter the 2024 season without a suspension after having his ADP deflated significantly in drafts as a result of a potential suspension hanging over his sophomore campaign. However, the potential for an in-season suspension to be instituted remains a possibility, especially as the investigation proceeds in the coming days, weeks, and months. However, the largest takeaway from Rashee’s situation is the massive discount at which he was selected in many a fantasy draft over the summer, and even today – without the suspension, Rice would be getting talked about as a potential top-15 or even top-12 fantasy receiver. The additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy complicate things in the pecking order, especially with Travis Kelce in the house… however, Rice proved he can command a high target share in his rookie season and will likely continue to do so as long as he’s on the field.

• Steelers, Patriots name veterans Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, respectively, as starting QBs for Week 1

  • Meanwhile, the younger quarterbacks with the rushing upside (especially Justin Fields, and quietly Drake Maye) will have to wait at least a short time before earning their chance to take the field. Given how close both competitions were through training camp and the preseason, it’s hard to imagine that either of Wilson or Brissett hold onto the starting jobs for the entirety of the 2024 season, so so make sure to hang onto Justin Fields where possible and potentially even Maye in deeper 2QB leagues. Of course, neither the Steelers nor the Patriots are expected to field offenses likely to set the world on fire with their production, and the steady veteran hands of Wilson and Brissett are likely intended to get the teams off to as stable starts as possible. Both quarterbacks will rank well outside of the weekly top-10 in Week 1 and likely beyond barring any unforeseen resurgences to relevance, but expect both QB situations in Pittsburgh and New England to be in flux for much of the new season. No Patriots or Steelers QBs should be rostered in traditional 1QB league formats besides perhaps Justin Fields, who would only be advisable in leagues with deep benches.

Kenneth Walker just might be the perfect combination of ceiling and floor RB at his price in fantasy drafts. He’s slated to be the primary RB for the Seahawks this season, and there’s even a chance that he’s the bell cow based on OC Ryan Grubb’s comments. Grubb called him a 3-tool guy (meaning he can contribute in all three phases: running the ball, catching the ball, and in pass protection) and that he’s “electric out of the backfield as a pass-catcher.” When you think about Kenneth Walker, you don’t imagine a guy that’s known for what he can do out of the backfield… but could he be getting slept on?

Among 45 total running backs to earn at least 30 or more targets in 2023, Walker ranked 4th in yards/reception, 2nd in yards after catch/reception, 1st in yards after contact/reception, 1st in missed tackles forced/reception, 7th in fantasy points/route run, and 11th in yards/route run.

Those aren’t just serviceable numbers, they’re (dare we say)… electric?

Ryan Grubb runs a pass-first offense. His team was 1st and 2nd in pass yards/game in all of college football over his last two seasons in Washington. Translation: we should see more routes and more receptions for Kenneth Walker. He only ran a route on 37% of QB dropbacks last year (per FantasyLife’s utilization report), and if this moves up to 50%+, we could be talking RB1 numbers pretty easily. Remember, a target is worth 2.5x a carry in PPR.

Walker finished as a mid-RB2 last year despite a season marred with injuries and Zach Charbonnet eating into his workload. The new coaches seem to want to move this backfield back into Walker’s hands.

It’s worth noting that the Seahawks offensive line is likely to be one of the worst units in the NFL, but checking it down to your RB is one of the best ways to counteract the pressure. And as we know, Walker is able to make plays on his own – evidenced by him being first among all RBs with 200+ carries in missed tackles forced/attempt last year (ahead of Bijan, Breece, CMC). And if you’re worried about Zach Charbonnet stealing goal line carries just because he’s bigger, I wouldn’t. Walker had 5 goal line carries to Charbonnet’s 1 last year, and Walker has the 8th most rushing TDs among RBs over the last two seasons.

Another thing to note about new OC Ryan Grubb - expect more 11 personnel (3 WR sets). Why does it matter for Walker? He faced stacked boxes on 19% of his attempts last year. I’d expect 10% or lower this year, and that’ll help open up the run game even more in addition to a boost in his workload in the receiving game.

The crows were circling over his 1000-yard season streak going into last year, but Mike Evans’ tenth season ended with not only four digits in the receiving yardage column, but also his best fantasy finish (PPR WR7) since 2016. That excellent finish came as a result of steady QB play that wasn’t necessarily expected to be there from QB Baker Mayfield, who followed an abysmal 2022 season (50.6 PFF grade) with a very serviceable 2023 (77.2 PFF grade).

Despite Chris Godwin garnering just three fewer targets (129) than Evans (132), Evans proved to be Mayfield’s go-to-guy looking downfield and in the red zone; his 40.1% air yards share (8th among all WRs to run 100+ routes) was simply in a different class than Godwin’s (27.4%). Evans also led the league in end zone touchdowns (9) while also ranking third in end zone targets with 19, behind only Calvin Ridley and Ceedee Lamb. His 2.46 yards per route run suggests that the perennial 1000-yard receiver is nowhere close to slowing down, and his 81.5 PFF receiving grade last year marked a notable resurgence after three-straight sub-75.0 seasons from 2020-2022.

He and Mayfield are running it back in 2024 on new big-money deals, and with no notable names added via free agency or the draft, both players will look to build on their revivals this year. Barring injury, Evans should be favored to extend his 1000-yard receiving streak – which, if done, would likely mean yet another WR1 finish for the five-time Pro Bowl pass catcher. A new play caller in Liam Coen following the departure of former OC Dave Canales could mean some kinks to work through early in the season, but there’s no reason to expect Evans to not be humming along sooner rather than later – just as he’s done throughout his career.

Two things to note: one is that Chris Godwin will be moved back into the slot, which could mean some target share moving in his direction. Believe it or not, the split was pretty close - 24% for Evans and 23% for Godwin. The other is that Evans will be 31 this season, which puts him closer to a potential fall-off. Considering the difference in ADP, Faraz is aiming for Godwin at the cheaper price over Evans.