Is Brandon Staley Fired Yet? 😳

Not fantasy related, but those Chargers are really out of batteries man. This newsletter is being written at 11 P.M., and I wonder if Brandon Staley is going to be fired by the time this newsletter gets to you.

What’s in store:

• Chris Olave has missed both practices so far to open the week 😬. The injuries are really starting to pike up around the league – and just in time for the playoffs.

• Nothing better than having your RB1 slapped with an ‘unkown’ tag in the middle of the week. De’Von Achane has something that’s keeping him from practicing. That is all we know.

• Faraz highlights' some of his top matchups. Should you be starting Justin Fields against a tough Browns defense?

• Breece Hall has been a model of consistency in a turbulent offense. See how he’s managed to stay in the air these past few months.

• Saints WR Chris Olave misses back-to-back practices to open week with ankle injury

  • With Rashid Shaheed already questionable heading into this game with a thigh injury that’s held him out of a few games, the Saints can’t afford to lose their top pass catcher this week and hope to have any semblance of offense show up on the field. It’s still relatively early in the week and things can change in less than 24 hours, but a third missed practice today would put Olave on the wrong side of questionable and likely set up Alvin Kamara to really, truly receive 20 targets in the Saints’ Week 15 matchup against the Giants. Should Olave miss the game, Derek Carr would be incredibly hard to trust as a fantasy quarterback this week. The Giants have allowed a lot of fantasy points to wide receivers over the past few weeks, but you’d have to be pretty desperate to start a guy like A.T. Perry as anything more than a flex in this one.

• Dolphins rookie RB De’Von Achane’s status ‘unknown’ at this time for Week 15 vs Jets

  • This can’t be happening, right? While this report isn’t necessarily a death sentence for fantasy managers who were hopeful to have Achane in their lineup for the first round of the fantasy playoffs, it’s just about as ambiguous a designation that a player can receive just three days out from kickoff. The Dolphins face a Jets defense in Week 15 that’s allowed very little in the passing game but has also struggled against the run, so Achane should still absolutely be started this week if he ultimately gets the green light from the Dolphins’ medical staff. Should Achane miss, though, Raheem Mostert would likely become a mid-high RB1 play with Tyreek Hill also being day-to-day with an injury of his own. Stay tuned over the next 48 hours to get the best idea of the way Achane is trending, but it might not be a bad idea to start game planning for a potential Achane replacement in your lineup this week.

• Vikings RB Alexander Mattison officially ruled OUT for Vikings Week 15 tilt vs Bengals

  • Mattison was never going to produce a whole lot anyway this week even if he was healthy, but his absence opens the door for Ty Chandler to become the clear No. 1 back in Minnesota’s backfield against the Bengals. The Vikings are hoping to get some sort of spark on offense out of the recently-anointed starting quarterback Nick Mullens, and any life on offense compared to what we’ve seen from Minnesota after these past few games would only stand to benefit Chandler in his first game as the starter. He’ll be strictly a volume based play this week and check in as a mid-low RB2, but in a week where injuries are aplenty and running backs are receiving ‘unknown’ designations heading into their games, Chandler is absolutely worth a look in your lineup as a flex/RB3.

• There are probably some questions around Justin Fields this week… I don’t have him as high as last week, but I still think he can be a solid starter for you. Sure, he might not have the huge ceiling like he does in neutral or good matchups, but the matchup isn’t as terrible as you might think against Cleveland either. Over the last 8 weeks, only 2 QBs didn’t put up at least 15 fantasy points against them: Clayton Tune and Kenny Pickett. Stafford and Lawrence each threw 3 TDs against them over the last two weeks, Lamar has 2 rushing TDs against them, Russ had a rushing score against them, and even Gardner Minshew had 2 rushing scores against them! I think I’m fine having Fields in my lineup this week… I’m just tempering expectations. But I think I’m starting him.

• Just a quick note on Tony Pollard. What’s up with Tony Pollard coming off the field for Rico Dowdle, and then also intentionally having Dowdle in there for goal line snaps last week? Pollard did get half of the attempts inside the 5 yard line, but come on man, that doesn’t help anyone. Pollard’s my RB14 on the week, but definitely pay attention this weekend against the Bills to see if this mixed usage becomes a trend.

• Also, I want to reiterate that Zack Moss is a borderline RB1 this week despite him not getting it done the last two weeks. His matchup against Pittsburgh is solid at home, and he’s seen snap shares of 94% and 84% over the past two weeks, plus 22 and 21 opportunities in both of those games, respectively - the fantasy points should come, and if they don’t come this week, we’re looking at a real outlier here.

• I also want to take note of James Cook and what he’s been doing lately. Since Ken Dorsey was fired, Cook has actually been on the field less - 45% of snaps in every single game since Joe Brady took over. The route participation has also taken a huge dip since he took over - this dude is only running a route on 37% of dropbacks over these last three games. That’s objectively terrible when we depend on the targets… but there seems to be a method to the madness, and here’s why it’s been working: he’s being targeted on 31% of his routes, and he’s leading all qualifying RBs in that span in yards/route run.

• He’s 2nd in yards per reception, and he’s being targeted downfield… only Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane have a higher average depth of target. He’s averaging 20 opportunities/game over the last three and he’s been efficient, so you gotta upgrade him at this point. The Cowboys don’t give up a ton of production through the air to RBs, but it’s hard to keep Cook out of my lineup with the way he’s been playing, especially with teams making a concerted effort to take Stefon Diggs out of these games.

Even after last week’s bounce-back performance in the rain against a battered Texans squad, it remains a fact that the Jets offense still isn’t operating at a high enough level to trust anyone on a weekly basis. The threat of a catastrophic bottoming out any given week remains uncomfortably high, and even Garrett Wilson hasn’t been immune to the issues that ail New York’s offense. However, there has been one player that has consistently produced through it all – even if it wasn’t always at an RB1 type of level.

Despite the Jets’ offense scoring 13 or fewer points as a team over a six-week period from Week 8-13, RB Breece Hall has posted as least 10 PPR fantasy points in each of his past nine games going all the way back to Week 5. That’s including five top-12 finishes since Week 5 while scoring just five total touchdowns over those nine games and dealing with QB Tim Boyle at QB for two of them.

The primary driver behind Breece Hall’s ultra-reliable fantasy output? HIs target share. Since the original QB change from Zach Wilson to Tim Boyle in Week 11, Breece Hall has posted the highest target share among RBs with at least four starts in that span (22.5%) while also reigning as the only RB among 25 players to earn 30+ targets since Week 11 (32). His 0.36 yards per route run also ranks second among those same 25 players with 30+ targets over the past four weeks to just Tyreek Hill. He’s finished as a top-12 running back in two of the past four weeks and will look to add to that ledger this week against the Dolphins.