Brian Thomas: Worthy Draft Target? 🤔

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What’s in store:

• Less catches for Evan Engram in 2024? 😦 The Jaguars tight end wants more looks downfield after catching 114 balls last year.

• Are the Raiders actually done in free agency? The Athletic’s Vic Tafur says that another addition could be on the horizon.

• Should we bother targeting Brian Thomas Jr.? 🐆 Given the target competition around him, it might not make a whole lot of sense.

• Extracting value from the new look Chargers backfield ⚡️. One could say it’s just the Ravens RB room of old (haha).

• Jaguars TE Evan Engram expressed his interest in being utilized more downfield in 2024 while speaking with ESPN’s Michael DiRocco

  • Apparently he’s tired of playing the volume game after reeling in an absurd 114 catches on 140 targets as the only tight end to eclipse the century mark in receptions last season. Engram has finished as a top-5 fantasy TE in PPR formats in each of the past two years since joining the Jaguars in 2022, but has struggled to find the end zone on a consistent basis with just eight scores in 34 regular season starts for the team. He’s also yet to eclipse 1000 receiving yards in a season in his career after putting up a career-high 963 in 2023. A higher average depth of target could go a long way in remedying the watered-down nature of his production, but fantasy managers likely will have to prepare for slightly more volatile production from QB Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target; he was a model of consistency last season, posting twelve weekly top-10 finishes while never catching fewer than four passes in a game. Whether or not Engram ultimately has his wish granted by the Jaguars remains to be seen, but he’ll be competing with two strong deep threats in Jacksonville’s passing attack: veteran FA acqusition Gabe Davis and 2024 first-round pick Brian Thomas will be looking for attention of their own downfield. As a result, Engram could be prevented from becoming the downfield threat he aspires to be. Regardless, as the current TE8 off the board in Underdog drafts, he qualifies as a very strong value with Top-5 upside in the Jaguars’ pass-first offense.

• The Athletic’s Vic Tafur ‘wouldn’t be shocked’ if the Raiders added another RB to the mix this offseason

  • As of the writing of this newsletter, second-year RB Zamir White figures to be the lead back even with the addition of veteran Alexander Mattison earlier this offseason. Of course, White’s status as the Raiders’ lead back has been presumed to be in jeopardy since Las Vegas cut ties with longtime starter Josh Jacobs, but we’re now well into July with no signs of an imminent RB signing. That general sense of doubt shrouding White’s role in 2024 has kept his ADP low throughout the spring and into the early summer (RB23 overall on Underdog), but that price could reasonably increase significantly the longer the Raiders go without adding another ball carrier to the backfield. Vegas did draft rookie RB Dylan Laube in the 6th round of April’s draft, which could limit White’s passing game upside should he see the field at all. However, as things stand today, Tafur seems to believe that Laube could be on the roster bubble as a potential casualty in the event a veteran RB is added. The market remains thin going into 2024, with names like Dalvin Cook and Jerick McKinnon headlining a short list of potential signings. It’s unlikely that the Raiders take a swing at Cook given his age, but RB Jerick McKinnon could put a cap on Zamir White’s chances to be a dual threat out of the backfield if his veteran presence in the receiving game is something the Raiders covet.

• Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix has ‘done nothing but impress’ Denver’s coaching staff and his teammates

  • Against the backdrop of Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, one would hope that Nix would be doing nothing but impressing the Broncos team and coaching staff. The good news: that seems to be exactly what he’s doing, and despite being the latest round 1 quarterback drafted, he has the clearest path to being his team’s starter outside of the top guys from the 2024 class (including Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels). HC Sean Payton has lauded Nix’s quick release and ability to work within the system, a very positive development for a quarterback who faces an uphill battle to being fantasy relevant this season. Nix’s top option is an aging Courtland Sutton on the outside at X, while WRs Josh Reynolds and Troy Franklin will likely look to pick up the remaining slack in the receiving game. Denver has been stuck in quarterback purgatory since HOF QB Peyton Manning left all those years ago, and Sean Payton and co. are hoping they’ve finally landed on the one to get the franchise back on track. Nix shouldn’t be targeted in 1QB leagues, but he’s worth keeping a close on in 2QB/superflex drafts given his situation.

The Jaguars added Calvin Ridley to the roster for one season, and he earned 136 targets. Pretty solid… but now he’s gone to Tennessee in search of greener pastures. That’s a lot of vacated targets… so where exactly are all those targets going to go, and how distributed will they be?

Brian Thomas Jr was drafted there in the first round this past April, and they added Gabe Davis in free agency (😂). They still have Christian Kirk, and don’t forget that Evan Engram led the entire team in targets last year with 140. It wouldn’t be on brand if I didn’t dismiss Gabe Davis off the bat, so let’s do that - he’s never been a target earner, and he won’t be one in Jacksonville with Thomas, Engram, and Kirk all fighting for looks from Lawrence.

Kirk is being drafted as the WR30 and Brian Thomas is being drafted as the WR42. First of all, I think Kirk is being severely underdrafted - he was the WR27 last year and that was with Ridley being a target hog. Yes, Brian Thomas will likely earn some targets as well, but I don’t think he’ll be getting that Calvin Ridley-type target share. Before Ridley got there, in 2022, Kirk was the WR20. He was a solid WR2 - and by the way, Zay Jones had 121 targets himself that year. Kirk’s role out of the slot isn’t changing, and especially in PPR leagues, Kirk is someone I will have a lot of this year. I can easily see him and Engram leading this team once again in target share.

That leads us to Brian Thomas Jr. Take a look at the ADPs of some of the 1st round rookies being drafted right now:

Marvin Harrison - WR9

Malik Nabers - WR18

Xavier Worthy - WR37

Rome Odunze - WR38

Brian Thomas Jr. is all the way down the board at WR42… and that’s not a bad price. My only issue is, you have McConkey at WR40 (who I’d rather have this year), you have Rashee at WR43 (who I’d rather have), and Diontae Johnson at WR44 (who I’d rather have, as well). I can make the case for Christian Watson over him, too – he’s going in that range. Because of the WRs going around him, I probably won’t have much of BTJ even though the price isn’t so bad for a role that will be there for him in year 1. The talent and upside he currently has is intriguing, but I’m not sure he’s necessarily earning target share over the veteran receivers on his team like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.

The Chargers RB room is an interesting one; they brought the band back together with Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. They’re reunited with their former offensive coordinator Greg Roman from their days with the Ravens - he’s a run-first guy. We can say the same about Jim Harbaugh. These two actually coached together in the same capacity in San Francisco from 2011 to 2013, and here’s how they ranked in pass attempts per game: 31st, 31st and 32nd. They were also 3rd, 7th, and 3rd in rushing attempts/game. When Greg Roman was OC in Buffalo, his offense attempted the 2nd-fewest passes while simultaneously racking up the 2nd most rushing attempts. When he was in Baltimore from 2019 to 2022, he ranked 32nd, 32nd, 9th, and 28th in pass attempts. The season they were 9th in pass attempts, by the way, was the season both Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins tore their ACLs right before the season. In those four seasons, his offense ranked 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 7th in rush attempts.

Jim Harbaugh also consistently didn’t have any teams that were pass-first during his college coaching career.

Moral of the story - this is going to be a run-first team. And we need to target these Chargers RBs… but which one? Gus Edwards is going off the board as the RB35, their sixth round pick Kimani Vidal is going off the board as the RB51, and JK Dobbins as the RB56. Off the bat, I want to eliminate JK Dobbins from my draft board. Why? Because he’s coming off an Achilles tear - we just haven’t seen any success stories of a RB coming off that injury in Year 1 and performing well, let alone Year 2 or Year 3. I hate to say it because I love the player, but I’m out on Dobbins this year.

That leaves Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal. I do think that Edwards’ price tag as the RB35 is an absolute bargain, and I’ll be reaching for him earlier than that anytime I have a zero RB build this time of year, but just in general, I think that’s an amazing price. I think this coaching staff trusts him, they brought him in early, and I think he’s the clear lead in the backfield as of right now, and I think he’s going to be their clear goal line back. Just so you know, Gus is dealing with an unknown injury right now and “should” be ready for camp, so expect his ADP to fall a bit until he’s ready to go.

All that being said - there are a few things that can work against Edwards this off-season besides the injury. Edwards wasn’t overly efficient last year, he’s 29 years old, and I believe Kimani Vidal is no slouch. He’s going to be the one, not JK Dobbins, in my opinion, to really challenge Edwards. He didn’t play in the Power 5, but among the 174 RBs with at least 500 career carries in college, he ranked 10th and 37th in yards after contact and missed tackles forced/att. He’s a good pass protector, as well. So Vidal, going off the board as the RB51 - he’s someone I would be targeting in a backfield that will run a ton, with the only competition being someone who’s never had more than 200 carries in a single season. So if I miss out on Edwards, I’ll be aiming for Vidal around his price.

Here’s another sneaky target - and I’ll give credit to Scott Barrett on this one - he planted the idea in my head and now I can’t get it out - what if Dameon Pierce gets traded to LA - he was great until Bobby Slowik took over and changed the schemes up on them. Pierce couldn’t get anything going last year at all, and Devin Singletary took over that backfield. What if he gets traded to the Chargers? He can go crazy. Just a fun thing to talk about, but I just can’t get it out of my head now. Thanks Scott.