C.J. Stroud's new Safety Blanket? 🤔

• Texans WR Christian Kirk ‘looks like a potential safety blanket’ for C.J. Stroud, says ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime

  • Given that his competition consists of two rookie wide receivers from Iowa State, it’s not surprising that Christian Kirk is being labeled a potential safety blanket for Stroud by beat reporters. Kirk has largely been productive when he’s been on the field his entire career, and as a veteran presence working in a role that the Texans have a clear need at, Kirk can absolutely come out of the gate strong while Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel get up to speed. The issue for Kirk is that the Texans spent high draft capital on acquiring Higgins and Noel (2nd and 3rd round picks, respectively), and at the price of just a seventh-round pick, Houston has little invested in Kirk comparatively. Where Higgins and Noel have room to grow in the Texans offense, Kirk could be just a stopgap until one or both get up to speed – and with Higgins already showing up in camp, there’s a chance that Kirk could be relegated to the slot role sooner rather than later. The threat of Kirk becoming a depreciating asset is real, though the chance for him to produce early returns makes his WR58 price tag palatable. After all, it would only take an injury to one of Houston’s three other receivers for Kirk to be locked into a fantasy-relevant role – though the odds that Kirk finds himself working down the depth chart as opposed to remaining atop it are long if Higgins and Noel pan out how the Texans would like to see them do so.

• Commanders WR Terry McLaurin ‘not happy with where things are with an extension’, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler

  • Let the contract standoffs ahead of and during training camp begin. So far this offseason, McLaurin’s impasse with the Commanders is easily the highest-profile conflict in fantasy land – especially with Scary Terry coming off his best season as a pro and a WR7 overall finish in 2024. It’s obviously early in the game with the entire months of July and August yet to play out, but it’s a situation worth watching given the effect that McLaurin’s absence would have on Washington’s offense in 2025. Should McLaurin wind up holding out at all, WR Deebo Samuel and TE Zach Ertz would be the first players who would stand to benefit, with Deebo becoming particularly interesting given the fact that his current ADP resides outside the Top-36. And while Jayden Daniels would likely be able to survive for a potential stretch of games without Mclaurin earlier in the year thanks to his rushing, his bottom line could very well be much lower without his top target from last season in the fold. McLaurin hauled in 13 touchdowns last season (more than half of the 25 Daniels tossed), so any games missed would be less than ideal –but until we actually see McLaurin in street clothes at practice or on the sideline during games, fantasy managers should rest without worrying about a holdout spilling into the regular season at this time.

• Jaguars WR Dyami Brown impressing in first offseason in Jacksonville, draws praise from QB Trevor Lawrence & HC Liam Coen

  • Jacksonville cleaned house in the receiving room this offseason, purging the ranks of TE Evan Engram, WR Gabe Davis, and WR Christian Kirk – all familiar faces to the old Pederson/Baalke regime. After doing so, New GM James Gladstone and HC Liam Coen went to work replenishing the weapons cache for Trevor Lawrence, adding WR Travis Hunter as the 2nd overall pick in this past April’s draft and WR Dyami Brown via free agency. According to Lawrence, Brown has been as advertised this offseason and continues to be ‘in the right spots,’ and says that Brown has ‘gotten the ball a lot’ because of that. With Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Brenton Strange all presenting significant target competition for Brown (and all having significantly higher resources invested in them by the team), it’s hard to project Brown as anything more than a potential boom/bust WR3/flex play. However, Liam Coen has plenty of experience sustaining multiple fantasy relevant WRs in his offense from his time in Tampa Bay, and if anything would happen to either of Thomas or Hunter, it sounds like Brown’s connection with Lawrence this spring and summer could have him on the fast track to targets if injuries occur higher on the depth chart. He’s worth a look as a flier late in drafts, but it wouldn’t be advisable to plan to lean on him as an every week starter in your linuep this coming season.

James Cook, BUF (ADP: RB14)

James Cook had fewer carries, targets, and receptions, rushing yards, and receiving yards in 2024 than he did in 2023, but he finished with 32 more PPR points this past season than the year before. What gives? There’s no question that James Cook is an explosive running back – he was top-10 in breakaway yards and breakaway run percent last season – but that bump in fantasy production despite a reduction in overall opportunities came from his 16 rushing touchdowns in 2024. For those keeping track at home, that’s 14 more scores in a single season than he’s had in any season prior to last year, and Cook ranked fourth in the NFL among RBs in fantasy points over expectation given his role.

That was also with Josh Allen running in 12 touchdowns of his own, but the primary issue with Cook’s usage is that he simply isn’t on the field enough to expect this type of production to be sustainable year over year without change: among the top-12 running backs in points per game, Cook had by far the lowest overall snap share on the season (48%). Buffalo is at odds with Cook in contract negotiations right now over this very issue, and it doesn’t sound like they’re ready to give the keys exclusively to Cook any time soon; if touchdown regression hits (and history suggests it will), Cook could vastly underperform his ADP in 2025.

Alvin Kamara, NO (ADP: RB19)

Alvin Kamara has finished as a top-10 fantasy RB in every year of his career except for two – 2022 (RB16) and 2023 (RB11). That’s thanks to an exceptional role in the passing game that saw Kamara pace all running backs in targets per game (6.2) and target share (22%), and going into his age-30 season, he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Backup RB Kendre Miller has been unable to make inroads on Kamara’s workload, and despite the addition of Devin Neal to the backfield via the draft, Kamara seems to be locked into his usual high-volume responsibilities.

With a question mark under center in Tyler Shough and a new fast-paced playcaller in former Eagles OC Kellen Moore, the Saints offense could be relying more on volume than efficiency to produce – and with just Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed as real threats in the receiving game, Kamara’s bottom line should be effectively buoyed by another season of being heavily targeted out of the backfield. With an ADP outside of the top-15 on most platforms, Kamara is officially being drafted at his floor and offers mid-RB1 upside at a heavy discount.

James Conner (ADP: RB22)

Age is just a number for James Conner, who was one of only two running backs (the other being none other than Bucky Irving) to rank top-15 across the board in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, rush yards over expectation, and yards per route run. He’s one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL, and that’s allowed him to stave off pressure from 2024 second-round pick RB Trey Benson in Arizona’s backfield.

Conner’s RB11 finish in 2024 was his best since his overall RB5 finish in his first year with the Cardinals back in 2021, and he’ll look to run it back as a fantasy RB1 once again in 2025 in a Cardinals offense that sneakily ranked inside the top-12 in points, rush yards, and rush touchdowns last year. As long as Conner is playing efficient football, Trey Benson truthers will be forced to sit tight – and while the age cliff will inevitably approach every running back, Conner has earned the benefit of the doubt with his longevity in consistently strong production. He’s an extremely sensible option as the RB2 on your squad with weekly RB1 upside – though another top-12 finish will be contingent on the now 30-year old running back staying healthy (he’s played more than 13 games in just three of his 8 years in the NFL).