Can James Conner overcome the Cardinals? 😲

If you thought Colorado at TCU was great this weekend, just wait until Scott Hanson is in your living room at 1PM on Sunday 😤

What’s in store:

• Could it be Clayton Tune under center in Week 1 for Arizona? HC Jonathan Gannon seems to think that’s a possibility.

• Faraz’s “My Guys”: RB and WR picks! Draft season is coming to a close – grab these players if you didn’t have yours yet!

• A look into one of Zach’s fantasy teams this season! Love it or hate it? Read on and let him know what you think on IG!

• Can James Conner be a diamond in the (very) rough? Tyler is prepared to bet on his history of production through volume!

• Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon says that he believes QB Clayton Tune is ready to start in Week 1

  • These comments, however, do not mean that Tune has been named starter or has the upper hand over Josh Dobbs for the QB1 job. With Kyler Murray likely to remain out for the foreseeable future, the outlook of Arizona’s offense is pretty bleak and neither Dobbs or Tune should be expected to pull fantasy relevance from the jaws of insignificance. At this point, neither QB should be picked up off waivers except for in the deepest superflex and 2QB leagues. However, if Tune would start, there is at least a small bit of intrigue with him – something that Dobbs does not offer at all.

• Buccaneers RB Sean Tucker will open 2023 as Tampa Bay’s No. 2 back behind Rachaad White

  • Rachaad White is expected to still handle the bulk of the workload – as well as the all-valuable receiving work – so Tucker will likely remain without standalone value in a presumably bad Buccaneers offense. However, Tucker seems to have done enough to earn the trust of the coaching staff, and he could become a solid early down handcuff if anything would happen to White over the course of the year. But with Chase Edmonds and KeShawn Vaughn providing pass-catching relief down the depth chart, it’s unlikely that Tucker assumes any type of 3-down workload in his rookie year.

• J.K. Dobbins, RB - Baltimore Ravens

  • People are tired of hearing me talk about JK Dobbins, but all signs have been pointing to him being the guy in this backfield. Their new OC has talked about it, and he’s being involved more in the receiving game. People forget that Dobbins had 71 receptions in 3 years at Ohio State!

  • Gus Edwards is falling out of favor in this offense - my conversation with Jason La Canfora helped bring more light to that situation, so it seems like there is a considerable gap between Dobbins and the rest of this backfield. And while we’re so used to a split in this backfield, we have a new OC now with a healthy JK Dobbins.

  • Jason La Canfora also helped me understand that he really thinks that this uncertainty throughout the offseason was all just about JK not wanting to get hurt in camp and preseason again - it happened multiple times with him, and he’s just trying to not have that happen again. He’s back, and he’s good to go for Week 1 at 100%.

  • So I see an ascending offense, a better offense, and I see Dobbins with 250 carries and 50 receptions this year with the primary goal line role - I think he’s this year’s Josh Jacobs.

• Jordan Addison, WR - Minnesota Vikings

  • I really liked Addison coming out, and I’m finding him on a lot of my teams… and I’m just excited about his role on a team that passed the ball at the third highest rate last year.

  • This year, they’re probably going to either be #1 or #2 with the Chargers - Tampa was #1 last year, but that ain’t happening this year. The Vikings are one of the fastest teams in the NFL, so you get more plays because they pass in every situation - they were top 5 when trailing, when they were in neutral scripts, and they even passed at the 2nd highest rate when leading - so you don’t have to worry about game script.

  • Adam Thielen ran the 2nd most routes of any WR last year, only 2nd to his teammate Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison’s getting that role now, and he’s an upgrade to what Thielen was at this point of his career - he can do more. So I really like Addison to be a lock as a top-36 WR, and I do think he has Top-24 upside as a rookie even sharing the field with Jefferson.

  • And it’s worth noting here that with all the attention on Jefferson, Addison is going to be getting a lot of single coverage, and he’s going to be open a lot. Let’s remember the type of prospect he was - he broke at 18 and was a 1st round WR… those two factors combined gives him extremely good chances of being a very good WR in the NFL.

Draft Format: 12-team superflex PPR drafting from pick 12, 3 WRs

1.12 - WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

If there’s any wide receiver in the NFL that’s going to go for 2K yards this season, it’s Tyreek Hill. He put the tied 2nd-highest target share among all WRs in 2022 at 28.8%, matching Davante Adams – and that was with Jaylen Waddle in the same offense, and multiple weeks of backup QB play. If Tua stays healthy, Hill could easily challenge for the overall WR1 spot in 2023.

2.01 - QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a superflex league – quarterbacks are too valuable to go through the first two rounds without drafting one. In this draft, I got a hold of Trevor Lawrence at the top of the second round. With Calvin Ridley and a second offseason of work in Doug Pederson’s system, Lawrence can take the next step at QB in his third year into the elite stratosphere.

3.12 - TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

With the next best player on the board being Jahmyr Gibbs (more on him in a second), and the next receiver on the board being Calvin Ridley, I opted to avoid the stack inside the first three rounds and take Lamar Jackson’s security blanket for positional advantage. After a down year last year, the only way for Andrews to go is up in Todd Monken’s new balanced offensive scheme.

4.01 - RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

After grabbing Andrews, Gibbs was the last player on the board at running back with truly legit Top-5 potential. And in the fourth round, that’s exactly what I was looking for in my first RB selection of the draft. The reports keep coming that Gibbs could be used in myriad ways, and at this point it doesn’t seem like it’s going to matter how he’s used as much as the fact that he’ll be heavily used. The Lions loved him in the draft and clearly plan to make him a huge part of the offense.

5.12 - WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

While the end of season numbers weren’t exceptional, London was a completely different receiver in the last four weeks of the season with Desmond Ridder at QB than he was in the first 13 with Mariota under center. In those last four weeks, London commanded an unbelievable 69% air yards share on the Falcons offense, which led the league by a wide margin. If London can at least get serviceable QB play from Ridder, he could be a top-20 WR.

6.01 - WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

I followed up the volume based security that Drake London offers with the league-winning upside of Christian Watson in the 6th round, and it worked out perfectly. Watson crushed last season with extreme TD efficiency, but steps into his second year as easily the most talented receiver on the Packers roster. He crossed the 2.25 YPRR threshold his rookie year, and every other rookie WR to do that has had a top-7 scoring season in PPR pts/game in their sophomore season.

7.12 - RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Not necessarily a home run selection here, but Akers should have a consistent workload and flashed the capability of high-end production at the end of last season. With Cooper Kupp potentially sidelined for Week 1 and more, Stafford could be forced to check it down early and often – which could lead Akers into volume in the receiving game he didn’t have before Kupp went down. He should finish as an RB2 this season, and that’s exactly what I drafted him to be.

8.01 - WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

An upside selection, to be sure, but certainly not an ill-advised one. Faraz pointed out last week that the Vikings threw the ball at one of the highest rates last year, and that’s likely to continue this year. Addison is clearly the No. 2 WR on this offense and will be freed up with the help of Justin Jefferson flanking him – and even then, Addison was one of the most talented receivers in the draft class. Cousins is an extremely steady hand at QB and he should allow Addison to thrive in 2023.

9.12 - RB Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders

Not necessarily a home run pick in the 9th round, but Robinson has won over the Commanders coaching staff and it looks like he’ll be the Commanders early down guy this season. With Antonio Gibson in the backfield, as well, and the duo of McLaurin and Dotson in the passing game, I’m not expecting the world from Robinson on a weekly basis. I drafted him to give my team a leg to stand on in case anything would happen with either Akers or Gibbs, and he should be able to do exactly that.

10.01 - QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

The upside pick of all upside picks, primarily because where he’s being drafted, there’s no expectation of performance. Howell showed this preseason and in the final game of 2022 that he has what it takes to be a quality starter in the NFL, and he has a great supporting cast around him to do just that. If Bienemy can coax the best out of Howell, he could finish as a legit Top-12 fantasy QB in 2023.

There are so many question marks surrounding the Arizona Cardinals’ offense heading into 2023, from the potential absence of QB Kyler Murray (thanks to a late-season ACL tear) to the unclear target share distribution with Marquise Brown and the rest of the Cardinals pass catchers – but James Conner is the lone player without uncertainty.

Conner’s coming off a somewhat underwhelming season (at least compared to his 18-TD 2021 season), tallying 229 touches, 1082 yards, and 8 TDs in 13 games. A slow start, ranking as the RB30 through the first 5 weeks, and injuries (an annual theme for Conner) kept the Cardinals’ RB from reaching his full potential.

The potential absence of Kyler Murray for a good portion of the 2023 season is interesting for Conner, who flourished in the 4-game stretch without the QB in 2022. In those four games without Murray, James Conner registered 19+ touches in every game, totaling 81 touches, 435 yards, and 2 TDs as the RB4 in points during that span.

With no true competition for touches in the Cardinals’ backfield, Conner will once again be the workhorse in Arizona, and with Murray out the opportunity will be there for Conner to replicate his top-10 production of years past. The only concern with Conner is the injury history, never playing an entire season in his 6-year career, which would be an issue if he was expected to be an early-round pick.

Given his price as the RB26 off the board in the late 7th round, there’s no reason not to target the potential 300+ touch RB with a history of multiple years of top-10 finishes.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Tyreek Hill entered last season with questions about whether or not he would be able to produce with a relative downgrade at quarterback and added competition for targets in the form of first-round WR Jaylen Waddle. Hill answered those questions, accruing more targets and receiving yards in his first year in Miami than he did in any season in Kansas City.

The most notable statistic, though, doesn’t show up in the box score. Tyreek Hill was the only wide receiver in 2022 to post over 20 fantasy points per game in 2022 with a teammate that also registered a 20+% target share. Hill scored 20.1 fantasy points per game on a 28.8% target share, while Jaylen Waddle registered an exactly 20% target share himself.

Tyreek Hill separated himself last year as a receiver who can thrive even with competition, as well as with backup QB play. If Tua can stay healthy this season, Hill should be a near lock to finish inside the Top-3 WRs once again, and he has realistic upside to chase both 2000 receiving yards and the overall WR1 crown in 2023.