Can Tua Have Sneaky Top-5 Upside? 🐬

What are the odds that Jim Irsay thought that he was managing his fantasy team when he asked for Jaylen Waddle in return for Jonathan Taylor?

What’s in store:

• Joe Burrow is back in practice! 🐅 There’s growing optimism that he could be ready to go by Week 1.

• Drafting at the turn and don’t know which WR to take? Faraz has you covered: he ranked the top receivers available at the back of the first and early second rounds!

• Is it officially Tua Time in 2023? Zach’s “My Guy” at quarterback, could Tua bounce back from an injury-marred 2022?

• Kenny Pickett: Can he pick it up in 2023 following a quiet rookie season? He’s had an excellent preseason, and Tyler sees room for him to take a step forward.

• ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that Bengals QB Joe Burrow returned to practice on Wednesday

  • This news bodes very well for Burrow’s prospects of playing in Week 1. There’s not much analysis to be done with this situation - as long as Burrow is healthy, he’s a weekly top-6 quarterback with the upside to finish any week as the overall QB1. Continue to monitor the situation as we draw nearer and nearer to the beginning of the regular season, but for now, there should be plenty of optimism that Burrow will be able to suit up for the Bengals debut game against the Browns.

• The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt says that there’s a chance TE Tyler Conklin could be Aaron Rodgers’ No. 2 target in 2023

  • Outside of Garrett Wilson, the Jets receiving weapons have taken on the quantity-over-quality approach, featuring a host of Aaron Rodgers’ friends from back in Green Bay and guys like Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah. That being said, while it’s somewhat of a surprise to hear that Conklin could be the No.2 target in the offense, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility in 2023. Conklin was able to carve out a substantial role for himself in the Jets offense last season even with sub-par QB play, putting up eight weekly top-15 finishes. While he most likely won’t finish inside the top-10, he could be worth a shot extra late in drafts or even off of waivers given the crapshoot that exists at the position after the top 10-12 guys.

• Jets HC Robert Saleh says that the team will “be smart” about utilizing Breece Hall to open 2023

  • Translation: expect a few quiet weeks from the sophomore running back to begin the year while Dalvin Cook handles a larger workload. It wouldn’t have taken a psychic to guess that this would be the way the Jets RB situation would shake out to begin the regular season, but this essentially confirms that New York will ease Hall back up to 100%. That being said, Dalvin Cook has a chance to provide great return on investment for at least a few weeks to begin the year, and could reasonably considered as a potential low-end RB2 and solid flex play in Week 1. Hall could have similar value, as well, but the Jets could easily play the long game with Hall – which would be the smart move – and limit his workload to prevent any potential setbacks in his recovery.

• Garrett Wilson - Faraz’s WR6

  • Garrett Wilson is already going in the 2nd round of 2023 fantasy drafts, and it's warranted.

  • He led a very good rookie class in receiving yards last year; his 1103 yards 7th most among rookie WRs since 2000. According to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, he had the best success rate against man and press coverage among all rookie WRs last season. You saw his QB situation last year. It wasn't pretty. But it was actually only Zach Wilson who was his kryptonite...

  • Without Zach behind center, Garrett averaged 17.29 PPR fantasy points/game - those are WR1 numbers. With Mike White and Joe Flacco. Now you have Aaron Rodgers coming to town, who was able to propel a less polished rookie in Christian Watson to WR1 numbers in the 2nd half of last year.

  • The 2nd round price tag seems steep, but Wilson is a sharp pick. All Rodgers needs is a WR who can separate with the best of 'em, and Wilson is that guy.

• Ceedee Lamb - Faraz’s WR7

  • With OC Kellen Moore leaving for LA, there has been some worry that the Cowboys offense would go run-heavy. I don't think that's the case, given how they're set up. Mike McCarthy might be talking like he wants to run the ball more, but if Tony Pollard is your lead RB, and you have CeeDee, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup as your 3 WRs, you're probably going to be pass-heavy - just like how how you were your entire career in Green Bay.

  • In 10 of McCarthy's 12 seasons as play caller in Green Bay, he was in teh top-half of the league in pass attempts, and 11 of those years he was top-10 in passing yards. And yes, that was with Aaron Rodgers, but the mentality should stay true. CeeDee

  • Lamb is the clear alpha in Dallas, and while some might not want to put him near the elite WR stratosphere, this year can prove the doubters wrong. Lamb had 11 games of 15+ PPR fantasy points last season, which ranked 3rd behind Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. He was 9th in yards/route run, 4th in target share (27.3%), 5th in targets/route run (28%), and 9th in air yards share (38.6%).

  • The addition of Cooks improves the offense, and Lamb should maintain elite target share and opportunity going into 2023. If he continues to run primarily out of the slot, he's unguardable.

• A.J. Brown - Faraz’s WR8

  • AJ Brown had an amazing season in his first year in Philadelphia, and proved that he belongs in the upper echelon of NFL WRs.

  • Among WRs with 100+ targets, he was tied for 3rd behind Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson with 2.59 yards/route run, and when you combine that with his 25.4% target share and 41% air yards share (7th in NFL), it screams elite WR.

  • The downsides for Brown are that he doesn't play in a pass-heavy offense, and he has a serious target earner right behind him in Devonta Smith. Smith earned a 25% target share to Browns' 26%, but Brown was the clear leader in targets downfield, which gives him a sizable edge over Smith (31% air yards share). Brown was also the first read on 32% of team pass attempts compared to 29% for Smith.

  • Another thing to keep in mind with AJ Brown is there could be a slight regression coming - the dude hit almost 1500 receiving yards on only 88 receptions. Any WR who hit 1400 yards last year did it with 100+ receptions. It made sense that he ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards per target over expectation last year, only 2nd to Jaylen Waddle.

• Davante Adams - Faraz’s WR9

  • A lot of question marks around Jimmy Garoppolo are leading many, including me, to doubt Davante Adams' fantasy upside in 2023. I feel like I'm making a mistake by doubting him. He's still at the top of his game, and Jimmy G is avoiding starting training camp on the PUP.

  • There are matches in Jimmy G's game that fits with Adams - the only potential downside is less targets down the field. But man, Adams was that dude last year - don't just remember the few games where he didn't come through for you. 6th in yards/route run, 1st in target share, 4th in targets/route run, 4th in air yards share, and was the 1st read on 38.5% of Raiders' pass plays, which was also 1st in the league - that's not changing QB to QB. The plays are designed the way they are for a reason.

  • There is some risk to Adams in case a) Jimmy G can't stay healthy and b) the Raiders are absolutely terrible and there's a late-season "injury" that prevents Adams from finishing the season, but other than that, he's hard to bet against. Even having him here seems too low.

• I get it, he had a bunch of concussions last year and he missed games for you. Big whoop. It’s a new year, and Tua’s got a full sleeve tattoo on his arm. He also still has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to lean on, and if Hill’s gonna be chasing 2000 yards this season, the only way to get there is through Tua.

• People don’t realize the year Tua had in 2022 because of the timing of his injuries. Let’s just throw some numbers out there right now: his season long stats are very solid – he led all quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks with 8.87 yards per attempt, and also posted an average depth of target of 9.8 yards, which was second highest. He threw 25 touchdowns, which tied for 6th most in the league despite only starting 12 games, and finished as a QB1 in fantasy points per game at 18.5.

• But even those per game numbers are deflated by two games where Tua was either pulled from the game because of a concussion, or should have been pulled. In Week 4, Tua left the game early and played just 39% of snaps. He scored 2.4 points that game as a result. Then in Week 16, if you remember that game against Green Bay, he came out red hot and suddenly just couldn’t stop throwing picks. After the game, he was diagnosed with a concussion - and he ended up having just 8.4 points that game with all the interception deductions.

• Take those two games out, and then we get to see the real picture - what a healthy Tua can be. His points per game jumps from the QB10 (as mentioned before, 18.5 PPR points per game) up to the overall QB5 (21.3 points per game). That’s Top-5 quarterback play you were getting from Tua when he was healthy!

• I’ve got a bunch of stock in him in the eight and ninth rounds of drafts – sometimes as a QB1 if I punted on a QB early, and other times as a QB2, although that’s obviously more often in superflex and 2QB leagues. He’s got excellent upside that’s been super easy to target.

It was a rather underwhelming rookie season for 2022’s only 1st round rookie QB, Kenny Pickett, going for just over 2,600 total yards and 10 TDs to 9 INTs.

It’s not a big shock that Pickett struggled as a rookie, seeing as history has not favored 1st round rookie QBs, finishing inside the top-24 for fantasy just 40% of the time and inside the top-15 just 13% of the time.

When you factor in Pickett’s missed time to injury, only starting 12 games, missing nearly all of one of those games, and ranking as the QB16 in fantasy in games that he fully played, the future prospects are appealing for Pickett.

The Steelers completely overhauled their offense this offseason, adding Isaac Seumalo, Nate Herbig, Le’Raven Clark, and Broderick Jones on the offensive line, drafted 3rd round TE Darnell Washington, traded for Allen Robinson, and will be getting WR Calvin Austin back from injury. With those offensive additions and a second offseason of development, a top-15 finish is by no means out of reach for Pickett.

I like him as a mid-to-low QB2 option, preferred as a waiver wire option in 1QB leagues, but as a high-priority QB2 target in 2QB/SuperFlex leagues, especially given his upside with one of the better receiving corps in the league.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

The top 3 passing offenses in the NFL last year each produced their own sets of premier fantasy WRs: Tampa Bay had Godwin and Evans, Los Angeles had Allen and Williams, and Minnesota had Jefferson and Thielen. All of those players return to their respective offenses in 2023 except for one – Adam Thielen, who was replaced by Jordan Addison.

In 2022, Adam Thielen ran the most routes of all receivers in the league except for one: his teammate Justin Jefferson. With Thielen gone for Carolina, Jordan Addison can step into an incredibly high volume role in the Vikings offense from Day 1 – and he profiles as a more talented player than Thielen as a rookie.

Digging deeper, we also saw the Vikings operate one of the fastest offenses in the NFL; more plays = more fantasy points. They threw that ball at a rate that ranked top-5 when trailing and in neutral game scripts, and also threw at the second highest rate while leading, as well. The volume is undeniable for Addison, and with his talent profile, he can potentially dominate out of the gate in 2023.