Christian Watson's Off to a Really Slow Start 🐢

Welcome to the dark side of the NFL season: Weeks 10-18. The fantasy playoffs are right around the corner, and there’s officially less football left to be played than has been played this regular season. 🫠

What’s in store:

• Dallas Goedert will miss a few weeks moving forward. He suffered a fractured forearm in a tough-fought game against the Cowboys in Week 9.

• You can already hear the complaints from the Jahmyr Gibbs managers: David Montgomery appears primed for a Week 10 return.

• Another Monday, another set of waiver wire targets. Check out which players Tyler has his eye on for this week.

• Christian Watson has been all kinds of disappointing. 🫤 The cheese has gone moldy for the second year receiver through his first 5 games.

• Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon says that QB Kyler Murray will make his return to the field in Week 10

  • This is tremendous news not only for fantasy football, but for the game itself and the Cardinals, as well. After a one-week trial run with Clayton Tune at quarterback - albeit against a heat-seeking Cleveland defense - it’s clear that the Cardinals are desperately ready for Murray’s return to the lineup, and they’ll need him to return to form quickly to get things running smoothly again after mustering just 58 yards offense in Week 9. The clear beneficiaries from Murray’s return are Marquise Brown and Trey McBride, as the passing game should be more dynamic with Murray under center than it’s been all year - but even the running backs get a decent bump, as well. Murray gets a solid draw in his first game action of 2023 against the Falcons, who are inside the top-12 for most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks so far this season.

• Eagles TE Dallas Goedert diagnosed with fractured forearm, expected to miss multiple weeks

  • The veteran tight end suffered the injury in third quarter of the game on Sunday after being wrestled awkwardly to the ground down the sideline. He was having a decently productive game to that point, reeling in three of his four targets for 50 yards receiving on the day. Goedert’s had an up and down season with two finishes inside the weekly top-5 and the rest of them outside the top-12, and he was operating as the team’s No. 3 target behind A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Early indications are that Goedert will require four weeks to make a recovery from the injury, but with the Eagles on bye in Week 10, he could realistically avoid a trip to IR if he’s able to stay on schedule with the timeline that has been provided. Regardless, fantasy managers will have a hole to fill on their roster with Goedert expected to miss an extended period of time, but the Eagles tight end’s production shouldn’t be affected long term by the injury.

• Lions HC Dan Campbell says RB David Montgomery likely to return to starting lineup in Week 10

  • That means that, in all likelihood, it’ll be back to complaining about Gibbs not getting enough touches in Week 10. While Gibbs is certainly deserving of those touches, though, it can’t be discounted how effective Montgomery has been for Detroit since joining the team. He’s no scrub, and even with the way Gibbs played in the Lions’ past two games, the split will never be more than 50:50 in favor of Gibbs. The difference for Gibbs is the type of work he receives, and there’s a chance that he’s relegated back to primarily work in the passing game with Montgomery healthy again. However, there’s also a chance that Gibbs gets a little more run in the ground game than he did in the first few games while splitting with Montgomery, making his range of outcomes on a weekly basis quite wide once again. He should be started as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 with plenty of upside moving forward.

1. Tank Dell (WR - Houston Texans) - Dell is available in 52% of leagues after a string of down performances and a recent bye week - he won't be available going into next week. He returned to his early-season form that saw him go for back-to-back 20+ point games in weeks 2 and 3, posting an absurd 114 yards and 2 TDs (29.6 points) on 6 catches (11 targets). It's clear Dell has established himself as Stroud's preferred deep-threat weapon. The consistency won't be there, but the upside absolutely is. He needs to be added if available.

2. Antonio Gibson (RB - Washington Commanders) - Antonio Gibson somehow finds himself available in over 55% of leagues on Yahoo despite a fairly stable floor in PPR leagues. He is not the lead back in Washington - don't expect double-digit carries much if at all. He is a high-volume receiving back. He's gotten 5+ targets in 4 of his last 7 games and has posted 8+ points in 4 of his last 5 as a result, most recently going for 76 total yards and 12.6 points on 11 touches (5 catches) in Week 9. RB is a very scarce position and if you can find a serviceable plug-in RB3 with a reasonable floor and some upside in the event of an injury to Brian Robinson, take it. Gibson should not be on waivers, but if he is, scoop him up.

3. Keaton Mitchell (RB - Baltimore Ravens) - This is your potential 'home run' on waivers this week. I was a big fan of Mitchell this preseason as a potential sleeper, but he had fallen victim to injuries, opening the season on IR to a shoulder injury, then seeing his first action in Week 6 (0 touches) and tweaking his hamstring in Week 7, costing him Week 8. This past week was his first real action and boy did he produce. He was wildly explosive with a 60-yard run and a 40-yard TD in a 9-138-1 (20.4 points) game. He didn't get a ton of snaps (13) but he will in the near future at his efficiency. A depth RB option with RB2 upside down the stretch.

4. Tyjae Spears (RB - Tennessee Titans) - Similar story to Gibson, just to a slightly lesser extent. Spears has been trending down in utilization over the last few weeks but has still posted 6+ points in five consecutive games and registered 3+ catches (as well as 4+ targets) in five of his last six. He's worth the stash with his matchup-based plug-and-play availability and the handcuff value he offers behind Henry.

5. Demario Douglas (WR - New England Patriots) - Demario Douglas continues to be heavily involved in the Patriots offense, leading the team in targets for a second straight week with 7 targets, now making it three consecutive games of 6+ targets, 4+ catches, and 8+ fantasy points. He's not necessarily a priority add, but definitely someone I'd put a claim in for if looking to add some stability and WR depth.

Raise your hand if you were counting on Christian Watson returning from his early season hamstring injury and boosting your fantasy team. 🙋‍♂️ Well, that makes two of us. After putting up some really promising efficiency metrics in his first year in Green Bay, Watson has struggled to gain any kind of foothold in the Packers offense through the first five games of his 2023 season. That’s culminated in five straight finishes outside the Weekly top-24, and things hit rock bottom for Watson in Week 9.

Since his return to the lineup in Week 4, Christian Watson has seen just a 16% target share in his five games played. That’s lower than teammate Romeo Doubs (19% in that same span), and just 3% higher than Jayden Reed and 2% higher than Luke Musgrave. Watson has yet to catch more than three passes in a game this season and has just one touchdown in 2023, which came in Week 4 when he saw just 46% of snaps.

Making matters worse is Jordan Love’s inaccuracy when it comes to delivering the ball to Watson, who’s 50% catchable target rate ranks 2nd-lowest among all wide receivers to run 140+ routes this season. Since Watson’s return, the Packers offense has averaged just 16 total points per game - in weeks 1-3, the Packers were averaging 26 points per game. Watson will have a chance to turn things around with still two more good matchups on tap in the next two weeks (@PIT, vs LAC), but seeing as he’s been unable to come through in similarly strong matchups over the past few weeks (@DEN, vs MIN), fantasy managers shouldn’t hold their breath on a sudden second half breakout.