Combing Through Faraz's Week 1 RB Rankings! 📊

At the time of this newsletter’s writing, we haven’t seen what Jahmyr Gibbs did in the season opener. Wonder what everyone will be talking about today…

What’s in store:

• Injury strikes early in Packers, Panthers WR rooms 🤕 Christian Watson and D.J. Chark might not suit up this weekend.

• Combing through Faraz’s Week 1 RB Rankings! Where do Josh Jacobs and Kenneth Walker fall?

• Mike Evans should be in your lineup?? See why Zach isn’t opposed to starting him in a matchup against Minnesota.

• Joe Mixon faces a familiar foe he’s found success against in the past… Tyler is all over the Bengals RB against the Browns in Week 1.

• Packers WR Romeo Doubs logs limited practice session Thursday, Christian Watson DNP for second-straight day

  • Doubs has been dealing with a hamstring injury since two weeks ago, but his return to the practice field brings optimism that he’ll be able to take the field Sunday against the Bears. Meanwhile, his teammate Christian Watson has seen his prospects for starting in the season opener drastically deteriorate with a hamstring injury of his own. Watson has missed the past two days of practice and doesn’t appear to be trending towards participating Friday, which would likely indicate that we’ll have to wait at least one more week before we see Watson’s first game action of 2023. If Watson, Doubs, or both should miss Week 1, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave would be the primary beneficiaries. Doubs could also see a slight bump if he would play and Watson would miss.

• Have we heard this before? Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. logs limited practice Thursday with ankle injury

  • That sound was the “Zay Flowers for Ravens WR1” train leaving the station. We knew heading into 2023 that Odell was in no position to compete for the top spot in the Ravens WR room, but picking up an injury just days before his debut in Baltimore could put him out of contention for the No. 2 spot, as well. With now two Ravens receivers nursing injuries between Beckham Jr. and Bateman, the last healthy pass catcher standing is Zay Flowers, who could step into a golden opportunity to build a connection early with Lamar Jackson.

• Panthers WRs Adam Thielen & D.J. Chark dealing with injuries ahead of Week 1

  • Both Panthers wide receivers missed practice on Thursday, but Thielen’s absence follows a limited practice he was able to log on Wednesday. That could mean that Thursday’s time off was simply precautionary, so it’s worth keeping an eye on his status for Friday to get a better idea of where he stands heading into Week 1. On the other hand, D.J. Chark seems to be trending in the wrong direction – if he would miss Friday’s practice, as well, it’s like that he’ll be out for Week 1. With his top weapons banged up and not much in the way of support otherwise, Bryce Young could come out of the gate cold to begin his NFL career. If one or both of the Panthers WRs can’t go, TE Hayden Hurst and WR Jonathan Mingo would be in line to pick up whatever slack the Panthers have in the passing game.

• Josh Jacobs: Faraz’s RB7

  • Denver has a good defense, but Josh Jacobs didn’t care. He averaged 30 touches and 167.5 scrimmage yards in his two games against the Broncos last year. Same offense, same coach. I’m expecting similar usage.

  Aaron Jones: RB11

  • With Christian Watson banged up, we could see Aaron Jones take on more responsibility in the passing game. The Bears’ defense got some help this offseason, but it better make a big difference after allowing the 3rd most rushing yards and 2nd most rushing TDs to RBs last year.

  Kenneth Walker III: RB18

  • Walker looks to be healthy now, but it remains a mystery as to what a split, if any, will look like with Zach Charbonnet. However, the Rams defense is a mess, the Seahawks offensive line has become an underrated strength, and therefore, a positive game script is likely.

• Raheem Mostert: RB22

  • With Jeff Wilson out, I’m confidently starting Mostert as a RB2. The matchup with the Chargers is a fantasy haven, and Mostert is going to get a sizable workload with a goal line role on a good offense.

  Khalil Herbert: RB28

  • Herbert is the 1a in Chicago’s backfield, but there is a threat that both Roschon Johnson and D’onta Foreman steal some work, as well. The goal line and passing down role is up for grabs, so it leaves Herbert as a very solid flex with upside in a pretty good matchup.

  Brian Robinson: RB31

  • Robinson’s usage in the preseason indicates that he isn’t going anywhere, and will still likely be the primary RB in this offense on early downs. If this offense improves, he’ll be the beneficiary of more goal line TDs. The game script is perfect for him this week against Arizona.

  Kenneth Gainwell: RB38

  • The Eagles listed four RBs as co-starters this week. They are truly trying to mess with us. I’m weary of believing that Gainwell will have a big role in the backfield, but everything we’re hearing is that he is going to be one of the primary ball carriers in this offense.

• Do we think that the Buccaneers are going to be able to keep up with Vikings this week? Vegas doesn’t – they have the third largest spread of any game this week. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Bucs are going to be playing catch up pretty much all game – crazy take I know – but that could translate well in terms of target volume for guys like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

• This could be a preview of what we’re going to be getting with the Bucs this season, so I’m paying attention to how this game shakes out. One thing to keep in mind is that Mike Evans is going to facing nobodies on the outside - the Vikings have Byron Murphy in the slot so he can keep up relatively well with Godwin. But Evans could surprise this week and I think he’s worth a look as a flex or WR3 in a potentially strongly negative game script.

• The Vikings allowed the 5th most points to the position last year and actually got worse in the secondary when they let Patrick Peterson go. Peterson earned an 80.5 PFF defense grade in 2022, but with him leaving for Pittsburgh this offseason, the Vikings are left with just Akayleb Evans (46.9 PFF defense grade) on the outside to cover Mike Evans, who ran 74% of his routes on the perimeter in 2022.

• Does Baker Mayfield inspire confidence in the Buccaneers’ passing attack? Absolutely not. But at the very worst, this will be a game where the Buccaneers are chasing points and that means the volume could be there for the Tampa Bay pass catchers.

We all know of the inconsistent nature of Joe Mixon, but it looks like it could be one of those games where he goes nuclear in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns.

Over his last nine games against his in-state rivals (dating back to his rookie year in 2017), Mixon has posted the following performances:

• Week 12, 2017: 26 touches, 165 yards, 1 TD (25.5 points, RB4)

• Week 12, 2018: 21 touches, 155 yards (22.5 points, RB10)

• Week 16, 2018: 19 touches, 78 yards (9.8 points, RB34)

• Week 14, 2019: 26 touches, 186 yards, 1 TD (27.6 points, RB3)

• Week 17, 2019: 27 touches, 176 yards, 2 TDs (30.6 points, RB4)

• Week 2, 2020: 20 touches, 86 yards (12.6 points, RB27)

• Week 9, 2021: 18 touches, 110 yards, 2 TDs (28 points, RB4)

• Week 8, 2022: 15 touches, 59 yards (12.9 points, RB22)

• Week 14, 2022: 16 touches, 106 yards (12.6 points, RB16)

Nice and simple - there are certain players that have a certain team's number and Mixon has the Browns' number, averaging 21 touches, 125 yards, just shy of a TD (0.7 TDs), and 20.2 fantasy points each outing against them.

Everything is aligning for him to have a monster week to open up the season between his extensive history against the Browns, Cleveland's porous run defense last year (8th-most rush yards, 6th-most fantasy points to RBs allowed in 2022), and the likely run-oriented game plan for Cincinnati with Joe Burrow still coming back to full strength with his calf injury.

I've got him as my current RB9 on the week (and will likely see him rise) as there is the very real potential for a 25+ point outing and a top-5 finish from him this week.

Travis Kelce’s fantasy managers are entering uncharted territory in Week 1 without the game’s top fantasy option at tight end. After not missing a game due to injury since 2013, Kelce missed the NFL season opener last night and left fantasy managers scrambling for a replacements going into Sunday’s main slate this weekend.