Could Cooper Kupp Return in Week 5? ⭐️

Panic not, dear reader: this newsletter is officially marked safe of any references to Taylor Swift.

What’s in store:

• Prepare to experience Breece Unleashed! 💥 The training wheels are officially off as of Wednesday morning!

• Don’t mark down Puka Nacua just because Kupp is returning! Players don’t just break records through four games and disappear.

• Don’t get it twisted: Tony Pollard is still that guy. The output these past two weeks has been middling, but the input remains at an elite level.

• A missing piece of Sam Howell’s game through four weeks. See where Howell could stand to improve moving forward to help propel him to new fantasy heights.

• Jets HC Robert Saleh says that RB Breece Hall is no longer on a snap count moving forward into Week 5

  • This is fantastic news for Hall and his fantasy managers ahead of a matchup with the Broncos, who are allowing the most fantasy points to running backs through the first four weeks of the season by a mile. Hall has faced four stout defensive fronts in his first action since tearing his ACL last year, but was incredibly efficient in Week 1 on limited work and looked solid last week against the Chiefs. Assuming that Saleh was referencing the split between Hall and Dalvin Cook for touches out of the backfield, we should start to see both Hall’s snap share and rush attempt share increase in the coming weeks. If Hall could take on an increased role, he could begin to nose his way into the RB2 conversation - especially if he can capitalize on a great matchup with a productive outing in Week 5.

• Rams WR Cooper Kupp “pushing” to return this week vs Eagles

  • This isn’t a guarantee that Kupp will suit up this week, but the fact that the possibility is squarely on the table is encouraging. Without a doubt, his managers should be starting him if he takes the field on Sunday, but it’s important to pay close attention to the reports out of practice in the coming days to see if he'‘s expected to go. Kupp hasn’t played a game since Week 10 of last year, but also hasn’t scored less than 11 PPR fantasy points in a game he started and finished since the 2020 season. Time will only tell if he returns to that league-winning form when he’s back, but his presence will undoubtedly have implications for Rams rookie WR Puka Nacua’s role in the offense. Nacua has shown too much chemistry and production with Stafford to expect him to be phased out of the offense, but he could be downgraded to a WR2 play moving forward as long as Kupp is healthy.

• The Panthers are reportedly in the market for a true No. 1 receiver ahead of NFL’s Oct. 31st trade deadline

  • Not sure where Carolina would come up with the draft capital to make a trade of this proportion, considering they mortgaged their future to move up to No. 1 overall to select the quarterback they want to get weapons for. Even if a trade would happen here, whichever unlucky winner of the Panthers sweepstakes would find themselves downgraded as a fantasy asset as a result. The Panthers seem to be approaching 2023 as a year where they can compete for a playoff spot - the rest of the NFL recognizes that they’re not going to flip a switch with Bryce Young and make that happen. Despite their interest in acquiring a true top wideout, Panthers WR Adam Thielen has been relatively productive operating as the team’s No. 1 - he’s caught 27 passes on 33 targets for 287 yards and two touchdowns en route to a PPR WR10 ranking through four games. Any move for a receiver would hurt his value significantly.

• PSA: Don’t panic sell Puka Nacua because Cooper Kupp is being activated off the PUP. First off, there’s a report from Diana Russini saying that they want Kupp to be 80-90% healthy when they do activate him for a game - which they haven’t done yet by the way - and she said that they don’t feel like he’s there yet. If that’s true, that would mean it’s possible Kupp doesn’t play this week, and they give him another week or two.

• Is it possible he plays this week? Yes. But even in that scenario, Puka Nacua is not going to just go away when Kupp is back. Puka is playing a different role, more of a mix between Kupp and Robert Woods: he’s running almost 70% of his routes on the outside, which doesn’t overlap with what Kupp does. And when a player earns the type of target share Puka has, and has type of production to go along with, that’s usually a good indicator they’re here to stay. It’s like when we thought Amon-Ra St. Brown wasn’t going to continue to kill it because he did it when Swift and Hockenson weren’t on the field.

• According to Fantasy Life data, Puka is 3rd among WRs in target share, he’s the WR4 on the year, and he’s the WR5 in expected fantasy points, so he’s not overproducing based on his opportunity. I think the biggest part of his game that will be affected is that he won’t be the first read on as many plays - and that’s what’s likely going to move him down to a WR2. But I don’t see a situation where he’s not a Top-24 WR even when Kupp is back, and given the mystery around a hamstring injury that Kupp needed to see a specialist for, I don’t want to panic sell - but I will package sell to get an every-week WR1 or RB1. Like, can you package him up and get Tony Pollard right now? That might be something I try and do.

• Another high-end RB1 you can buy who a lot of people aren’t viewing as a high-end RB1: that would be Tony Pollard. He’s currently third in the NFL in expected fantasy points/game based on his opportunity, only behind Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara. Now, Kamara’s 14 target game this past week skewed things a ton, so I don’t expect him to be up here in a couple of weeks… but the only ones to be up at the top that have also played more than one game this season are Pollard and McCaffrey. That shows you that those two guys are here to stay when it comes to the opportunity they’re getting.

• Austin Ekeler had 26.4 fantasy points in Week 1, Christian McCaffrey is averaging 30 fantasy points/game, and Tony Pollard’s averaging 16.6 fantasy points/game. Kyren Williams is next in expected fantasy points - he’s averaging 20.4 fantasy points/game - so something’s gotta give with Pollard here. We know the talent is there, he’s had to deal with a blowout in Week 1, in which he got pulled early, a blowout this past week, in which he got pulled early, only 53% of snaps, but in the two close games against the Jets and Cardinals in Weeks 2 and 3, he’s averaging 29 touches! The fact that he’s still able to maintain himself as the RB12 on the year despite all that is pretty impressive.

• I don’t see blowouts on the horizon here with the 49ers, Chargers, Rams, and Eagles coming up over his next four games… if you’re looking for that high-end RB who’s actually affordable, Pollard is the guy you want.

Coming into the 2023 season, there was real intrigue surrounding second-year Commanders QB Sam Howell and what a breakout would mean for the fantasy landscape at the position. Through four weeks this season, Howell has delivered as a quality starter – he has three top-15 finishes, with his only finish outside of it coming in a Week 3 drubbing at the hands of the Bills. He’s been getting it done, but one part of his game that we identified as having the potential to put him over the top has been missing: the run game.

Among all quarterbacks to start at least two games this season, Howell is the only signal caller not to have a single designed rushing attempt on the season. That’s right: even Matthew Stafford has had at least one, while Howell has yet to answer the bell on the ground.

Now, this stat doesn’t mean that Howell hasn’t used his legs at all this season. Besides extending plays and moving in the pocket, Howell has scrambled a few times in 2023, even rushing six times last week against the Eagles while facing plenty of pressure. But those rush attempts were completely off script, and Commanders OC Eric Bienemy has yet to incorporate anything in the way of scheming to get Howell some rushing production. And as long as that continues – while he has been a quality passer to begin the year – he’ll be relegated to finishes outside the weekly top-8 moving forward.