We made it. The NFL regular season begins today, along with our pursuits of fantasy football greatness.

What’s in store:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is good to go in Week 1! 😁 The rookie will make his debut against a weak Rams defense.

• One last look at Faraz’s top-5 overall. Warning: the fifth player on the list might surprise you.

• Tiered Rankings: RBs. Zach brings us the final installment of his tiered rankings with RB tiers 3 and 4!

• Should we even bother drafting Matthew Stafford? Tyler says there might not be any reason to target him in drafts.

• Seahawks rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected to start in the Seahawks season opener against the Rams

  • Excellent news, especially considering the not-so-rosy timelines that were provided for JSN’s return in the immediate aftermath of the injury. With JSN good to go, Geno Smith will have all of the spoils in the world in terms of weapons to utilize in Week 1, and the Seahawks draw a very good matchup against an undermanned Rams defensive squad. Jaxon Smith Njigba can be treated as a strong flex option, while Geno Smith gets the biggest bump of any player on the Seahawks offense not names JSN.

• Rams WR Cooper Kupp to miss Week 1 against Seahawks, could potentially land on short-term IR

  • While there was supposedly a chance that Cooper Kupp would suit up for the Rams season opener, this was the expected outcome after reports surfaced that he had reaggravated his hamstring injury. Kupp could be looking at an extended absence as a result of this injury, as well, with Rams HC Sean McVay floating the idea that he could be put on IR to begin the season. Tyler Higbee’s target share is about to explode, while Van Jefferson and Puka Nacua should become viable options in Kupp’s absence. Keep an especially close eye on Nacua, who was a favorite sleeper here at Upper Hand among this year’s WR class.

• Colts beat Nate Atkins of The Indianapolis Star says that the Jaguars could see a “steady dose” of rookie WR Josh Downs

  • With Jonathan Taylor out for the first four games and rookie Anthony Richardson at quarterback, Downs should have ample opportunity in his regular season debut operating out of the slot. It appears from this report that Downs has held onto the starting role in the slot amidst the Colts’ addition of free agent WR Isaiah McKenzie, a welcome development considering the promise Downs has shown in the offseason. In a matchup against the Jaguars where Richardson will have to fall into a rhythm early if they want any chance to beat the Jaguars, Downs could be Richardson’s go-to guy underneath and on intermediate routes.

• Commanders WR Terry McLaurin could play in Week 1, team is “optimistic” that he will be ready to go

  • After speculation that he could miss the Commanders season opener against the Cardinals and potentially more with a turf toe injury, Terry McLaurin appears to have a better chance of starting than sitting on Sunday. This is clearly good news, but McLaurin and his managers aren’t out of the woods yet; with two more injury reports between now and Sunday, fantasy managers should keep a close eye on his status before penciling him into lineups. McLaurin would likely be a mid-low WR2 this week in a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, but if he wouldn’t play, Sam Howell’s projection would likely take a hit while Jahan Dotson would receive a boost.

1. WR Justin Jefferson, MIN

   • The ideal 1.01. Safety and upside. He won't let you down, and he'll also win you weeks. He had 9 Top-5 finishes last year, the most among WRs, as well as 23 finishes with over 15+ PPR fantasy points over the last two seasons, which was 2nd to Cooper Kupp's 24. He was 2nd to Cooper Kupp in targets/game at 10.8, but with Kupp at 30 years old and Jefferson not even hitting his prime, take the young buck as the first WR off the board.

2. RB Christian McCaffrey, SF

   • The upside in San Francisco is massive, even with the occasional close-out by Elijah Mitchell. Week winning upside is the name of the game, and CMC has the skills and the offense to justify his price. To fade CMC because of Elijah Mitchell doesn't sit right, especially since it's been extremely tough for Mitchell to stay healthy. A full off-season with this team can allow CMC to reach even new heights in 2023.

   • When all of San Francisco's weapons were on the field, including the playoffs, CMC earned a 23% target share, which is bonkers for a RB. Run-first system, RB centric, and the QB is targeting you all day.

3. WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN

   • 86/1046/9 is a pretty good line for a WR right? Well, Chase did that in 12 games. He ended up scoring 2 more TDs in his three playoff games. He was on pace for 123/1482/13.

   • Chase has a shot at finishing as the overall WR1, and given what he has been able to accomplish in his first two years of his career, the sky is the limit. He wasn't even too efficient last season - only 2.02 YPRR, so if that comes up just a bit, we're looking at a monster season. The fact that he was 4th among WRs in end zone targets and didn't play a full year tells you what you need to know.

   • Two things are working in his favor compared to Kupp - youth and QB stability. The good news is that he was Joe Burrow's first read 37.3% of the time, which was 2nd in the league only to Davante Adams. And when that happens on a pass-first offense, we're talking big numbers coming.

4. WR Tyreek Hill, MIA

   • Hill finished 1st in the NFL among WRs with a whopping 3.20 yards/route run among WRs with 100+ targets. Justin Jefferson was the next highest at 2.62. He was also tops in the league alongside Davante Adams in target share with 28.8%, and was also targeted at the highest rate per route - 32% of his routes. Hill can finish as the overall WR1 this season. 7 top-5 finishes last year was 2nd only to Justin Jefferson.

5. RB Tony Pollard, DAL

   • Pollard finished as the PPR RB9 in fantasy PPR points/game - without the goal line role. Zeke was 2nd among all RBs last year with 19 goal line carries. All of that work is going to Pollard. Zeke's also vacating 231 carries.

   • This might be a surprise, but Pollard was 1st in yards after contact per attempt among RBs with 150+ attempts last year. He was 10th in TOTAL yards after contact. He was the only RB in the Top-15 who did it on less than 200 carries.

   • He was breaking away runs like no one else. Best rate of 10+ yard runs, and 2nd best rate of 15+ yard runs. The added element of him in the receiving game is key. He was one of the best pass-catching RBs in 2022. He was 5th in yards/route run among RBs with 50+ targets, only behind known receiving RBs like CMC, Kamara, Swift, and Ekeler.

   • A goal line role and more volume from an efficient RB on a good offense, who already finished as a RB1.

Tier 3: Top-8 potential with underlying risks

• Derrick Henry: Henry falls into Tier 3 as a result of a) his presence on what’s probably going to e an average offense at best, and b) the inevitable age cliff he’ll eventually fall off of. He’s already defying the odds as is and his production will be one-dimensional with Hopkins and Burks dominating target share and the threat of Tyjae Spears coming in on 3rd downs.

• Jahmyr Gibbs: There’s temptation to put Gibbs all the way up in Tier 2, but it’s hard to forget the disservice the Lions did to D’Andre Swift’s talent last season. Gibbs seems to be locked into a very heavy workload, especially in the receiving game, and his ceiling is inside the top-8. With David Montgomery, though, it will be hard for him to dominate on the ground.

• Jonathan Taylor: Things have gone from bad to worse with the Jonathan Taylor situation, and he’s going to be out for four games. That doesn’t change the type of weapon he is when he’s on the field and healthy, and he can still be traded. Wherever he plays this season, he’ll be capable of ranking inside the Weekly Top-10 each and every game.

• Rhamondre Stevenson: Even if Zeke didn’t sign in New England, Stevenson would be ranked in the third tier - perhaps on the high end. But with Zeke in town, his ceiling comes down significantly and he profiles now as a low-RB1 whose best quality will be the floor he offers each week. The Patriots offense isn’t going to escape the middle of the pack this season, and Stevenson doesn’t intrigue me at all in 2023.

Tier 4: Deadzone Targets

• Joe Mixon: A sideshow of meaningless drama this past offseason overshadowed the fact that the Bengals let his primary competition for touches go and didn’t replace him with anyone. This is still a pass first offense and Mixon hasn’t been very efficient as of late, but he’s an excellent RB2 with a chance to finish as an RB1 any given week.

• Aaron Jones: Jones has quietly strung together good year after good year for fantasy purposes, leaning on four straight seasons of 60+ targets and 45+ catches to propel him to four straight top-12 finishes. The offense is a question mark in Green Bay and his week-to-week consistency wasn’t great last year (eight games of <11 fantasy points), so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to pump the brakes a bit.

• J.K. Dobbins: We’re projecting a big bump in overall workload now that he’s fully healthy, but it remains to be seen if that comes to fruition in 2023. The offense will be more balanced and Dobbins is head and shoulders above the rest of Baltimore’s backfield, and there have been hints of him getting some work in the passing game. If he can walk the walk to back up the talk, Dobbins could be this year’s Josh Jacobs.

• Alexander Mattison: We can’t ignore the running back that Mattison has been without Cook in the lineup, but we also can’t just assume that his production in a few games over the years will translate to season-long success in 2023. The Vikings have three players that are more talented in the passing game than Mattison is overall, so his ceiling isn’t world-breaking – but he’ll be a quality RB2 on a consistent basis.

2021 saw the resurgence of Stafford to levels that we had seen earlier in his career with Detroit, finishing with over 4,900 yards and 41 TDs in his first season with the Rams and ending as the QB6 in fantasy.

Unfortunately, the narrative in the offseason following 2021 was the question of Stafford’s health with reports of lingering elbow issues. Those issues were swept under the rug heading into the season, but Stafford was not his typical self. He struggled mightily in 2022, especially early with 4 TDs to 6 INTs through four weeks, seeing his season end in Week 11 to head/neck injuries with just one game of 18+ points – a mark he hit in over half his games in 2021.

Supposedly, Stafford is back to full health – whether that is accurate or simply offseason headlines is another question. What we do know is that Stafford is now 35 years old, heading into a season with likely the worst supporting cast in his career, especially given his only significant WR in Cooper Kupp is coming off a season-ending ankle injury and is struggling with a hamstring issue heading into week 1.

I like Stafford as a player, I like the McVay offensive scheme, and I think both he and Kupp will be back to full (or close to full) strength at some point this season, but I don’t see the value in targeting Stafford in fantasy. He’s going as a mid-to-low QB2 in the 13th round or later of drafts. At that point, even though I think Stafford finishes as a mid-QB2 at worst (barring injury), I’m looking at upside in my QB2 and preferring a player such as Wilson, Richardson, Pickett over

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

With the first game of the NFL regular season kicking off tonight, today’s stat of the day column looks back on the top fantasy performances in Week 1 in each of the past five years. It’s easy to get caught up in the data and the numbers while we look at fantasy football and who to target, avoid, buy, sell, start, and sit – but today, we’re taking it easy.

A few things worth noting from this list – in each of the last four seasons, it’s been a wide receiver that’s led the league in scoring. The last player to lead the league in scoring in Week 1 that wasn’t a wide receiver? That would be none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick, who scored 42.3 points in a ridiculous upset over the Saints in 2018.

The last player to lead the league in scoring in Week 1 that also played in the season opener was Amari Cooper in 2021, who reeled in 13 passes on 16 targets for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Could we see a player in tonight’s game finish atop the fantasy leaderboards for Week 1 this year?