Dak and Ceedee are Set to Feast on Thanksgiving! 🍗

One more day until the glorious four F’s of Thanksgiving: Food, Family, Football, and Fantasy Football! 🦃

What’s in store:

• Kyren Williams IN, Cooper Kupp questionable for Sunday. The fantasy gods just don’t want to see the Rams offense at full strength.

• Are Dak and Ceedee in for a FEAST on Thanksgiving? Statistically, there isn’t a better matchup for them to do so.

• Temper Expectations this week for Seattle? The 49ers have a suspect backend defense, but they remain one of the toughest outs in the league moving forward.

• Courtland Sutton has been flying under the radar in 2023. He’s quietly a top-20 receiver in total points scored this year.

• Saints place WR Michael Thomas on IR with knee injury sustained in Week 10

  • Thomas himself hadn’t been very productive at all in a struggling Saints passing attack, but the 18% target share he vacates for the next four weeks while on injured reserve is far from insignificant for the rest of the New Orleans pass catchers. With Thomas out, Chris Olave could see a further bump in usage moving forward, and the likes of Rashid Shaheed and A.T. Perry can reasonably be rostered while Thomas is out. The Saints offense has been as unpredictable as any in recent memory given that it features two target hogs in Olave and Alvin Kamara, plus two heavy boom/bust players in Shaheed and Taysom Hill - but with Thomas out, Shaheed could become a very solid flex candidate with the potential to have some shades of consistency if the target share is stratified among the top targets.

• Rams HC Sean McVay says that he expects RB Kyren Williams to be good to go for LA’s Week 12 matchup vs Cardinals

  • At long last, fantasy football’s newest bell cow running back is set to make his return to the field in a very favorable matchup against the division rival Cardinals. Arizona is allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position so far in 2023, and Williams averaged 18.5 PPR points per game through the first six weeks of the year. That makes Williams, even in his first game back, a priority start as a low-RB1 in Week 12. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be losing too much sleep over Royce Freeman potentially sapping production from Williams, especially with the Rams waiving Darrell Henderson on Tuesday. That would imply a vote of confidence from the Rams’ coaching staff, which is an excellent sign that Williams will be back at 100% this week. And with Cooper Kupp potentially out with yet another ankle injury, Williams has the chance to hit the ground running in his return. Speaking of Cooper Kupp…

• Rams WR Cooper Kupp diagnosed with low ankle sprain, considered day-to-day ahead of Week 12

  • The Rams don’t play until Sunday, but given Kupp’s history with ankle injuries, there’s reason to be concerned about his availability this week against the Cardinals. Injuries to both Kupp himself and quarterback Matthew Stafford have marred his 2023 season, with Kupp being able to muster just 11.6 PPR points per game in six active games this year. While Kupp still very much has a chance to suit up come Sunday afternoon, fantasy managers should pay careful attention to updates on his status throughout the week. There’s a chance that he could play at less than 100%, as well, making Puka Nacua the preferred start against Arizona this week regardless of whether or not Kupp is ready to go. With tough matchups on deck in Weeks 13 and 14 against the Browns and Ravens, respectively, fantasy managers who were counting on Kupp to be the catalyst to a playoff run are staring down a dark three-game stretch upcoming for the former overall WR1.

The Table is Set for Dak and Ceedee to FEAST on Thursday

• The Thanksgiving puns are all completely warranted for a matchup made in heaven for Dak and Ceedee to continue their torrid pace on Thursday afternoon. If Tommy Devito can come in and throw for three touchdowns against the Commanders with a 75% completion percentage, then Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb are about to butcher them on national TV.

• Dallas has been incredibly effective on offense at home, and that’s translated to both Prescott and Lamb’s game logs: Prescott has scored 29+ fantasy points in his last two home games, and Ceedee Lamb has scored 39+ in his, as well. Not to mention that Dak Prescott is averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game at home this season and has at least two touchdowns in four straight games coming into this one - plus Ceedee Lamb is top-3 in target share in the league with the most fantasy points per game of any player in fantasy football overall in the last four games.

• Washington is currently allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the third most fantasy points to wide receivers, making Dak and Ceedee one of the most valuable fantasy stacks in Week 12 and also has them ranked respectively at 1 in our rankings. It almost feels too good to be true - between the timing of this matchup, the trajectory the teams are headed, and the uptick in usage we’ve seen for Lamb since the bye, they’re locked in as top-12 assets this week at the very least.

Tough Matchup for Seahawks Overall vs 49ers

• Starting Geno Smith has felt like playing to not lose instead of playing to win – if you’re one of those people who are starting him in your league and it’s not out of desperation, it’s time to let go. Geno is averaging just 14 points per game on an offense that features D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, JSN, Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet. Those are weapons that are just about as good as you can get, and Smith has largely been able to squander those opportunities so far through the 2023 season.

• Given his track record of poor production this year, the fact that the Seahawks play on Thursday, and the potential limitations he could face with a sore elbow, there should be plenty of other quality streaming options you can pick up to replace Smith both short and long-term. As for WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, their individual matchups are strong - the 49ers are allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year - but a dark cloud of Drew Lock is hanging over their heads going into Week 12.

• If the Seahawks would have Drew Lock under center this week, both receivers would likely be relegated to WR3 duties or lower against the 49ers, but if Geno does play, both can have low-mid RB2 upside.

The Broncos offense has seemingly turned a corner this year after their abysmal 1-5 start, winning their last four games to get back to .500 and right back into the thick of the playoff race. Even with the struggles and inconsistency throughout the year on offense, WR Courtland Sutton has quietly put together a very high-quality 2023 season through ten games and has established himself as Russell Wilson’s No. 1 target in a crowded WR room. That’s come in the form of elite week-to-week consistency with solid WR2 production - something we hadn’t seen from Sutton up to this point in his career.

As the graphic above mentions, Sutton has notched double-digit PPR points in nine of his ten games this year, including 16+ points in three of his last four games. And while the target share he’s earned hasn’t exactly been ground-breaking – his 23% share leads the Broncos team – he’s more than made up for it in touchdown efficiency, scoring a touchdown in eight of his ten games this season.

Those touchdowns have come as a product of not only improved play from Russell Wilson, but also Wilson’s preference for Courtland Sutton once the play breaks down. Sutton is the first read on just 27% of Denver’s offensive pass plays - for reference, Jerry Jeudy’s first read rate, per Fantasy Points Data, sits ahead of Sutton at 29%. While he hasn’t been earning those first read targets in 2023, he’s been excelling at making off-platform (and quite frankly, clutch) catches off of improvisation by Wilson late in the play. It’s been very Tyler Lockett-esque, and it’s made Sutton into one of the most consistent fantasy receivers in the league - his 0.352 consistency rating ranks fifth-best among all WRs.