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What’s in store:

• Anthony Richardson is officially the Colts QB1. 🐴  Could he double down as a fantasy QB1 this season?

• Fantasy fallout from the Dalvin Cook signing! 🛩️ What does it mean for Breece Hall in 2023 and beyond?

• Fantasy Quarterback Tiers, 3-5! You read Tiers 1 and 2 on Monday; now Zach delivers the rest of his list!

• Can Justin Herbert bounce back from a down year? Tyler is confident in the highest-paid player in the NFL to turn things around.

• Breece Hall returns to practice on Tuesday, shortly after Jets sign Dalvin Cook to one-year deal

  • The timing is right out a storybook, with both of the Jets top running backs making recoveries from injuries sustained in the 2022 season. Hall has reportedly been right on track in his recovery throughout the offseason, and has the chance to start in Week 1 alongside Dalvin Cook. Cook – who remains still a week out from being able to practice – has been dealing with recovery from a shoulder surgery this offseason, but should be ready to go without any trouble for New York’s regular season debut. Cook is likely to lead the backfield in the early going as Hall ramps up to full strength, but the split could even out as the season goes on and potentially tip in Hall’s favor at some point.

• Colts HC Shane Steichen names Anthony Richardson as the team’s starting QB for Week 1

  • Even after an up-and-down preseason debut last week, Richardson gets the nod as the team’s starter in Week 1. The expectation has been that Richardson would start, but Gardner Minshew made it interesting throughout the offseason and into last week, with reports circulating that he had an outside chance at starting for the Colts to open 2023. With the threat of Minshew starting out of the way for the foreseeable future, it’s all systems go for Richardson in fantasy this season. Likely to be carried by his rushing ability, especially in the early going, the 4th overall pick from this year’s draft becomes an intriguing option later in fantasy drafts as a dark horse QB1.

• Jets QB Aaron Rodgers suffers calf injury during Tuesday’s practice

  • The injury doesn’t fall into the “panic about it” category, but it’s something to monitor as we get closer to the start of the season. Rodgers, 39, isn’t getting any younger, and had dealt with a calf injury in the opposite leg earlier in the offseason. The good news: Rodgers was able to practice through it and did'n’t have to come onto the field. Fantasy managers shouldn’t let this report change how they go about treating Rodgers in their drafts, but keeping up with any developments wouldn’t be a bad idea. (Hint: you can do that by reading this newsletter!)

• This obviously hurts Breece Hall. I think from a longevity standpoint, if you have him in dynasty, this isn’t the worst thing that could happen to him. In fact, it’s kind of a good thing - you don’t want Breece Hall getting hurt or overworked because he’s ramped up too fast. That’s what would have happened if the Jets didn’t go out and bring in someone that could take a legit portion of the workload off of Hall’s shoulders. Maybe Zonovan Knight, Michael Carter, and Izzy Abanikanda could have teamed up to help do something like that, but they’re not on Dalvin Cook’s level. That’s from a real world perspective.

• The fantasy perspective, however, is a bit more bleak. Cook’s signing in New York reads simply: less touches for Breece Hall. This isn’t the ideal outcome in redraft for either guy – we could be looking at a 50:50 split in terms of workload in 2023. But it’s not like Dalvin Cook has nothing left in the tank - he can still run, can still catch… this isn’t an Ezekiel Elliott situation.

• Breece is always going to be the guy that’s more explosive out of these two; more long plays, more home run hits, etc. But for this year, though? He’s not going to be handling any type of workhorse volume. As a result, you have to move Breece Hall down to a low-end RB2 for 2023. I had him as a fringe RB2 / low-end RB1 before the Cook signing, but you have to move him down now that Cook is in town.

• As for Dalvin Cook, he’s going to be a mid-RB2 to begin the year and I’d be happy to start him in my RB2 spot or flex spot. I’d also be happy to start Breece Hall as a flex, so he’s not pushed completely off the map because of this signing.

• The Patriots and Jets moved quick to sign these veteran RBs (Zeke signed in New England the same day), and that probably has to do with Kendre Miller getting hurt. The Saints were already thin at RB with Eno Benjamin going down, and they had previously hosted Kareem Hunt on a visit as well. So when Miller went down – someone they were planning to rely on – the alarm went off that they had to swoop in and get their guys before the Saints had a chance to steal them away.

Tier 3: Elite Upside With Less Established Floors

• Tua Tagovailoa - There’s a reasonable level of concern about Tua’s health heading into 2023 after he suffered three concussions last year, but when he was healthy, he was one of the most productive QBs in fantasy. Take out Week 4 when he left the game early with his first concussion, and the game in Week 16 where he started hot but threw 3 INT’s after he was allowed to stay in the game with a concussion, and Tua averaged 21.3 points per game in 2022, which would have made him the QB5. That’s an elite ceiling that you can get relatively cheap in drafts.

• Deshaun Watson - Watson could challenge for a top-3 finish, but it’s just a matter of him getting back to playing the way he did back in his Texans days. A full offseason program should help give him the best chance at doing that – as will arguably the strongest supporting cast he’s had in his career. He’s looked good in camp so far, and if I had to bet on it, I’d say it’s more likely that he balls out this year than it is he falls flat and looks like he did at the end of 2022.

• Anthony Richardson - He has all of the tools to be a high-end fantasy QB1. His rushing ability should buoy his production regardless of what his W:L ratio is in his rookie year, but it’s also hard to ignore his massive arm. He’s a rookie who will undoubtedly experience turbulence in his rookie season, but we’ve seen first year players navigate choppy waters and finish very high before (Cam Newton did so in 2011, as well as Justin Fields last year). Does anyone else think that Richardson can rush for just as many touchdowns as Fields last year, and throw for more yards? Because I do.

• Geno Smith - His ADP is still being hurt by name value, even after his QB8 finish in points per game last year. It wouldn’t make sense to project a quarterback who played consistently well the entire year to suddenly not play well the next year, but the “flash in the pan” allegations remain because Geno’s rise came out of nowhere. He has arguably the best trio of WRs in the NFL and a deep RB room in the backfield – that’s everything he needs to finish as a top-6 QB once again.

Tier 4: The Safe Bets: High Floors, Top-10 Upside

• Daniel Jones - He broke out by virtue of his rushing production taking a massive jump from what we had seen from him in the first three years of his career. Not only did he rush for the fifth-most yards among QBs in 2022 (703), but he also doubled his career high in rush attempts and more than tripled his single-season career high in touchdowns scored! The difference? Brian Daboll, who took the first step in molding Daniel Jones in the same vision as he did with Josh Allen in Buffalo. His rushing production is here to stay, which gives him a rock-solid floor week in and week out – but his passing production ultimately won’t reach a point where he’s challenging for a Top-5 finish in 2023.

• Dak Prescott - He’s consistently been a high-QB2/low QB1 for the past two years – and that’s because of his rushing production almost completely falling out of his game. Despite that, his passing production has been among the league’s best, including him throwing the most touchdowns of any QB once he returned from injury last year. Take out the game in which he was injured and played uncharacteristically poorly in in Week 1, as well, and Prescott’s points per game jumps to 18.9 - which would have made him the QB7 last year. His weapons have improved, and he’s one of the safest choices at the position.

• Kirk Cousins - The most underrated fantasy QB in the league, Cousins is set to once again fly under the radar as a top performer in 2023. He has a new weapon in Jordan Addison to throw to, along with two other elite targets in Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. He’s the ultimate punt pick if you miss out on the early difference makers – his price as the QB13 off the board is extremely palatable given the top-10 upside he presents on a weekly and yearly basis.

• Aaron Rodgers - A down year from Rodgers last year in Green Bay has his ADP way down in 2023, even with high expectations from the Jets. His 14.8 points per game (QB25) last year leaves a lot to be desired, but it’s hard not to project a significant bounce back from the former 4 time MVP with a much better set of weapons. Rodgers was consistently pedestrian in 2022 (1st in consistency rating among all NFL QBs last year), but Garrett Wilson should help fix that issue and add some boom back into Rodgers’ fantasy production in 2023.

• Jared Goff - Goff looked like the 2021 version of himself to open 2022, but he turned back the clock in the back half of the year and played extremely efficient football the rest of the way. From Week 12 on, Goff was the QB7 in fantasy points per game, while throwing for a pristine 14 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in that span. The Lions still have an excellent offensive line, and they added two premier weapons in Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta to complement Amon-Ra St. Brown. It’s starting to feel like Goff’s days back in LA, when he was surrounded by talent and just had to play efficient football… He averaged a QB10 finish from 2017-2019.

Tier 4.5: The Russell Wilson Tier

• Russell Wilson - Wilson has the upside to finish as a Top-8 QB in Denver, but last season showed us that the floor is pretty damn low if Sean payton isn’t really the answer to what ailed them in 2022. Denver was home to the lowest-scoring offense in the league last year, making it difficult to project comfortably for the offense to suddenly turn around on a dime. But if Payton gets things back on track, Wilson could belong in tier 3. He did have two top-5 finishes to close last season, which would indicate that he’s not dead just yet.

2022 was a rough season for Herbert, who took a massive step back from his incredible 2021 season that saw him go for over 5,300 total yards and 41 TDs as the overall QB2, falling to the QB11 with just 4,886 total yards and 25 TDs.

A big reason for that was the injuries to both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, seeing the two play together in 2022 in just 8 games (3 of them in which at least one would exit early to injury), preventing Herbert from having a healthy WR corps on a regular basis. Herbert was actually the QB5 in games where both Allen and Williams played, showing it’s more likely than not that the absence of weapons played a major role in his struggles.

Heading into 2023, he doesn’t have to worry about that. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are fully healthy, plus the Chargers went out and acquired another major weapon for Herbert (in the instance of another WR injury) with Quentin Johnston in the 1st round of the NFL Draft.

Between the numerous additions/returns of weapons, plus (perhaps more notably) the addition of Kellen Moore as OC (the man behind Dallas’ explosive offense over the last several years), I am definitely targeting Herbert as a bounce-back QB in 2023.

At his price as the QB7 off the board, projecting somewhere in the 6th to the early-7th round range, I am more than comfortable with spending a mid-round pick on Herbert for the potential overall QB1.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Justin Fields is regarded as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league heading into 2023 after leading all QBs in 2022 in rush yards. That’s an impressive stat in and of itself, but looking closer at Fields’ production last season, we see him set himself apart from the field in more ways than just total yardage.

Among QBs last season with 30 or more rush attempts, Justin Fields dwarfed even the very best ballcarrying quarterbacks. He more than doubled the next best QB, Lamar Jackson, in % of runs that gained over 30 yards (4.4%), while simultaneously finishing as the only quarterback to register over 3 yards after contact per attempt.

That type of elite rushing production doesn’t require much in the passing game to support a fantasy QB1 – and Fields has much more help this season than he did last year when he finished as the overall QB5 in fantasy points per game. If Fields could hit anywhere close to the 3000-yard mark in 2023, we could be looking at a true fantasy cheat code under center in Chicago.