Dalvin Cook and Zeke Sign in NYJ and NE! ⭐️

Whew! That was a busy 24 hours – we’ve got old faces in new places, and shockwaves rolling through the fantasy landscape!

What’s in store:

• Zeke and Dalvin Cook find new homes in the AFC East! Two backfields were just shaken up in big ways.

• Drafting early in your superflex league? Faraz has you covered with his top-5 superflex rankings for 2023.

• Preseason Week 1’s top performers! See which players had the most impactful days in the first week of action!

• When should we be drafting Jahmyr Gibbs? Tyler identifies the ideal range and projects his stats for 2023!

• Dalvin Cook signs one-year deal with Jets, joins Breece Hall in NY backfield

  • The signing, which essentially happened a few weeks ago when Dalvin Cook originally visited the Jets as a free agent, officially redistributes the value that existed in the Jets backfield previously. Cook’s arrival, while certainly not ideal for Breece Hall, should not spell his doom for 2023 – but it will certainly limit Hall’s ceiling this season as he makes his return from his ACL injury. The workload split is likely to favor Cook in the early going this year as the Jets ramp Breece Hall back up, but could shift more towards a 50:50 or even favor Hall as the season progresses. Both backs should be fantasy relevant options from day one, with both projecting to provide some form of substantial value that should keep them in starting lineups – even if that’s in a flex or RB2 capacity.

• Ezekiel Elliott signs one-year deal with Patriots, joins Rhamondre Stevenson in NE backfield

  • The Patriots have been telegraphing the idea that they wanted to add a running back, and they finally did so by signing Elliott to complement Rhamondre Stevenson. Elliott shouldn’t touch Stevenson’s receiving workload in 2023, and Stevenson will likely still get the first crack on early downs – but as we saw in Zeke’s time in Dallas, there’s a good chance that he steps in to vulture a not-irrelevant amount of work in the red zone and at the goal line. That likely won’t be enough to cripple Stevenson’s value and prevent him from finishing as an RB1 – however, this signing likely means that we can kiss the dreams of Rhamondre Stevenson finishing as a Top-5 RB goodbye. The Patriots offense likely won’t be making it rain touchdowns this season, and added competition hurts Stevenson’s upside much more than it does his fantasy floor.

• J.K. Dobbins activated from the PUP list, could return to practice soon

  • We’ve been calling for this for a while here at Upper Hand, but it looks like the pendulum is finally swinging towards Dobbins returning to practice and being ready for what projects to be a very promising 2023 season. He has spent the majority of camp on the PUP list until now, but not as a result of injury; word has been that he’s been staging a “hold in”, but with no leverage at all in contract negotiations, an eventual return was always the expectation and now comes to fruition. Ravens OC Todd Monken has voiced his interest in getting Dobbins involved in the passing game and “in space”, setting him up for a potential breakout season after a quiet start to his career.

1. Jalen Hurts, QB - PHI

There's no reason why Jalen Hurts can't build on his extremely impressive 2022 season. We knew the rushing ability was there, but with some help from the addition of AJ Brown, Hurts' passing skills took off to a new level. The Eagles offense became more balanced after a run-heavy 2021, and Hurts' dual-threat production led him to finish as the overall fantasy QB1.

2. Josh Allen, QB - BUF

Josh Allen was tied with Patrick Mahomes for the most Top-10 finishes last year, but had one less Top-2 finish than Mahomes. Allen has had three straight seasons of 35+ passing TDs, two straight seasons of 750+ yards rushing, and he's scored at least 6 rushing TDs in all 5 seasons in his career. The rushing work and goal line prowess gives Allen the slight edge over Mahomes, and that's allowed him to have 3 straight seasons of 24+ fantasy points in 4 point QB scoring - that's stuff only all-time elite fantasy QBs do.

3. Justin Jefferson, WR - MIN

The ideal 1.01. Safety and upside. He won't let you down, and he'll also win you weeks. He had 9 Top-5 finishes last year, the most among WRs. He had 23 finishes with over 15+ PPR fantasy points over the last two seasons, and that was 2nd to Cooper Kupp's 24. He was 2nd to Cooper Kupp in targets/game at 10.8, but with Kupp at 30 years old and Jefferson not even hitting his prime, take the young buck as the first WR off the board.

4. Patrick Mahomes, QB - KC

I don't understand how Patrick Mahomes was able to do what he did after he lost Tyreek Hill. He threw for 41 TDs and 5250 yards the year after he lost Tyreek! The dude is different. He still has Travis Kelce, and now has a bunch of young WRs vying for time on the field this year. He has thrown 37+ TDs in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and he'll occasionally run a TD in. He's not a rushing QB, but he makes up for it by being the best passer in the NFL.

5. Lamar Jackson, QB - BAL

Lamar Jackson is going to go HAM this year. He's healthy, and he has a new OC. Why is that good? While I think Greg Roman was the perfect first offensive coordinator for Lamar Jackson, he's outgrown him. Bringing in Todd Monken is the perfect thing to happen to Lamar, because he can now show his skills in the pass game. Monken has always been a pass-first guy, but I do think this becomes a more balanced offense rather than a pass-first one. The rushing will still be there for Lamar - the designed runs, but we'll see more scrambles - because there will be more drop backs. And now he has weapons, too! Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, OBJ, Isaiah Likely... that's a damn good supporting cast. Lamar has never thrown for more than 3200 yards in a season; if he can now supplement a 1000 yard rushing season with 4000 yards passing? We're looking a fantasy monster.

1. Justin Fields, CHI - Despite throwing just three passes (with each travelling three yards or less in the air), Fields ended the day with over 100 yards passing and two touchdowns. While the heavy lifting was done by D.J. Moore and Khalil Herbert, Fields was able to extend plays and provide prospective fantasy drafters with a very strong 2023 debut – albeit a short lived one.

2. Tank Dell, HOU - The rookie WR was electric in his first preseason action, consistently reeling in catches and capping his night with a highlight reel touchdown. He drew 8 targets on the night, 5 more than any other receiver had in the game. If Dell can continue to impress, he could push for a starting spot in the Texans questionable receiving corps in the regular season.

3. Derek Carr, NO - Carr played just one drive, but engineered it to perfection and offered strong reassurance that he can lead the Saints offense to be very fantasy conducive. He looked as sharp as ever, completing passes to four different receivers. Carr will be a breath of fresh air in 2023 for a Saints offense that has been stuck in QB limbo since Drew Brees retired.

4. Khalil Herbert, CHI - Herbert looked like the obvious lead back in Chicago on Saturday, racking up over 4 YPC and taking his lone reception 56 yards to the house. Roschon Johnson rushed for 44 yards on the day on 12 carries, but had 24 of those yards come on a single carry. Herbert has always been efficient, and he demonstrated that once again.

5. Sam Howell, WAS - Howell looked sharp in his preseason debut, spreading the ball around and finding second-year WR Jahan Dotson for a 26 yard score to finish his night. Jacoby Brissett was pedestrian while filling in for Howell, and it looks like it’s Howell’s job to lose with two more weeks of preseason action yet to be played.

We already knew Bijan Robinson was going to go early, not just in the NFL Draft but also in fantasy drafts. However, Jahmyr Gibbs was the RB that sent shockwaves through the NFL community, going 12th overall to Detroit and coincidingly triggering the trade of elite receiving back D'Andre Swift to Philadelphia.

With that draft capital invested in him comes anticipation. And with anticipation comes expectation.

That expectation comes in the form of a fantasy draft price of a late-3rd/early-4th round price tag (3.12) as the RB14 off the board, per ADP, and valued a mid-4th rounder as the RB16, per consensus. That price tag sees him going around the likes of Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, and Aaron Jones at the RB position; the first two being established top-12 fantasy RBs with likely workhorse roles and the latter of which has finished as a top-12 RB in four consecutive seasons.

There are two ways to look at Jahmyr Gibbs this season:

The Optimistic Perspective:

History has heavily favored high-capital rookie RBs. Over the last decade, 78% of RBs drafted inside the top 25 picks of the NFL Draft have finished inside the top 10 in PPR scoring and finished as the RB3 or better a third of the time. Those are fantastic odds when looking at the correlation between draft capital and utilization for rookie RBs.

That doesn't even account for Gibbs himself or the situation he is in. Gibbs' closest comparable is Alvin Kamara, who played within a Dan Campbell offense (Assistant Head Coach & TE Coach in New Orleans) and finished as the RB3 as a rookie despite just 120 carries on the season and limited involvement early on in the season. Throw in the fact that he joins a Dan Campbell run-heavy offense that saw a complete overhaul at RB, seeing both lead backs (Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift) replaced, amid the Lions' RB room finishing the season as the highest-scoring group in fantasy with over 500 PPR points in 2022.

The talent is there. The opportunity could very easily be there. The offensive line is there. The offense is there.

Everything is aligning for the potential for Gibbs to emerge as a top-5 fantasy RB as a rookie, even without a pure workhorse role. The only thing that needs to happen is for Gibbs to be even somewhat involved in the running game to provide the workload necessary to sustain RB1-level production in PPR scoring.

The Pessimistic Perspective:

The entire argument against Gibbs revolves around uncertainty - both the uncertainty of an unproven rookie RB and the uncertainty of what role he is guaranteed as a rookie.

We have seen rookie RBs go nuclear (i.e. Saquon Barkley finished as the top RB as a rookie in 2018) but we have also seen rookie RBs fail entirely (i.e. Rashaad Penny, former 1st round pick, finished as the RB67 as a rookie in 2018). Everything in the NFL is earned, not given, even when a player is drafted as highly as Jahmyr Gibbs was. That's nothing against Gibbs: that's simply the nature of the game, especially when playing for a coach like Dan Campbell, who allowed a hyper-talented RB in D'Andre Swift to have limited involvement and actually see work behind Justin Jackson in the back half of 2022.

The opportunity is fantastic for Gibbs, but he has yet to establish it, especially after the Lions brought in an established workhorse RB in David Montgomery in free agency. It's anticipated that Gibbs takes advantage of the situation, at the very least in the receiving game, but that can't be guaranteed.

When investing the draft price of a 3rd (or very early 4th) rounder, you want something that is guaranteed. The uncertainty is worth a second guess, especially when Gibbs is likely being taken either as a very-low RB1 option or as your RB2 while you opt to pass a highly-touted WR2 or an elite TE/QB. Whether you view that trade-off as a worthwhile one is up to you and how highly you value his upside, but his lack of established security is certainly something to consider.

Where do I stand on Gibbs? I view him as a very worthwhile investment - at the right price.

I love him as an RB2 option given his upside, the situation, the history of rookie RBs, and D'Andre Swift's previous production in Detroit (outside of injuries), but find it difficult to trust him as an RB1 with the presence of David Montgomery.

At his current price around the 3/4 turn, I am all game, and I'd even be willing to draft him as highly as in the mid-to-early 3rd round, but my concern is the potential for his ADP to skyrocket throughout camp and the preseason. We've seen it happen numerous times in the past several years with highly-touted rookie RBs and if his draft price were to creep into RB1 territory, that is where I would draw the line.

My personal prediction for Gibbs in 2023:

• 147 Carries, 646 Rushing Yards, 7 Rushing TDs, 1 Fumble Lost

• 76 Recs (97 targets), 598 Rec Yards, 4 Rec TDs

• 264.4 PPR fantasy points (would have finished as the RB7 in 2022)

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

2022 was an abomination of a season for the Broncos, with Russell Wilson floundering in his first season with the team and former HC Nathaniel Hackett being fired midseason. Part of the offensive struggle revolved around Wilson’s inability to connect with WR Courtland Sutton, who enters 2023 on a downward trajectory. But is all hope really lost with the big-bodied perimeter receiver?

Despite the hardships the Broncos offense faced last year, Sutton was able to out-target his teammate Jerry Jeudy 106-100, yet he registered fewer receptions on the season (64 to Jeudy’s 68), total receiving yards (830-987), and receiving touchdowns (2-6). Both Jeudy and Sutton played 15 games in 2022.

With Sean Payton coming in to help fix what ailed the Broncos last season, the fantasy community is all over Jerry Jeudy as a potential breakout candidate. However, could we be underestimating what Courtland Sutton is capable of in 2023? Word out of camp is that he’s been Russell Wilson’s favorite target once again, and given the fact that he led Denver’s WRs in targets even during a down yea, could a return to normalcy be in the cards for Sutton?

Jeudy is currently coming off the board in the 3rd round of drafts on Underdog, while Sutton is coming off the board 5 (!) rounds later in the late 8th. Jeudy has a much better chance of being overall more productive, but Sutton could realistically produce similar numbers, even if they aren’t exactly the same, and be a value in drafts.