Decoding the crowded Bears receiving corps 🐻

Completely unrelated to fantasy football, but the NBA has themselves one hell of a storyline with Lebron and Bronny James on the same team. Really interested to see how that plays out.

What’s in store:

• Dolphins, Tua deadlocked in contract negotiations. The understanding is that they’ll come to an agreement at some point.

• Kyren Williams speaking himself out of a role? That might be an overreaction, but he was highly complimentary of Blake Corum’s game.

• Breaking down the Bears WR room 🐻. The toothless are toothless no more, and Faraz has us covered.

• If it’s not Nick Chubb in Cleveland, it’s this RB. Faraz identifies his favorite target in the Browns backfield.

• Dolphins, QB Tua Tagovailoa remain at impasse in contract negotiations ahead of 2024 season

  • The team remains deadlocked in negotiations over a new contract extension with their QB, with Miami preferring to pay ‘fair market value’ for Tua’s services as opposed to resetting the market for the third time this offseason. Deals done with QBs Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff have pushed the going price for a quality signal caller into the stratosphere, and fresh off of a season where he led the league in passing yards (4,541), Tua is looking to cash in with a long-term deal. Whether or not the two sides come to an agreement has almost no ramifications for the 2024 season unless Tua would decide to hold out; he’s under contract via his fifth-year option. However, should Tua not be extended ahead of 2024, he could hit free agency next March and drum up uncertainty for the rest of the Dolphins’ contributors on offense. Whether or not Tua is a top-of-the-market talent in the same world as Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson is certainly debatable, but what can’t be argued is his ability to be productive and support fantasy weapons around him at a very high level. The current sentiment around the league with more than two months to go until kickoff is that a deal will be done at some point, so fantasy managers don’t need to hit the panic button just yet. But if no deal comes to fruition, Miami could be left in search of their next franchise guy come 2025.

• Rams RB Kyren Williams lauds fellow RB Blake Corum’s ability in the run game, hopes to ‘get to the slot’ in 2024

  • It’s almost like Kyren Williams is trying to speak a complicated backfield by committee into existence! It wouldn’t be the first time something like that happened in the Sean McVay era, that’s for sure – but let’s hope we can avoid it in 2024. Williams also went on to mention that he hopes to be more involved in the receiving game this season, something that would help boost his bottom line in the event that Blake Corum does end up getting some run in the Rams backfield in 2024. Williams ranked just 23rd in targets (47) in 2024 to go along with 228 touches on the ground, leaving him room to improve in that department that would have fantasy managers jumping for joy. Of course, that’s assuming he’s is able to maintain his workload on the ground – if the Rams intend to deploy a rotation at running back featuring the former Michigan star RB, things could get dicey in a hurry for Williams. At this point, extra work in the receiving game never hurt anyone, but fantasy managers should keep a close eye on the Rams backfield once training camp is in full swing to have a better idea of just how significant a role Corum will play in 2024.

• ESPN’s Sarah Barhop made specific note of WR Cooper Kupp as an early offseason standout after injury-riddled 2023

  • In other Rams news, it sounds like WR Cooper Kupp is making waves early on this offseason now that he’s fully healthy heading into training camp. Since his earth-shattering 2021 season, Father Time has cashed a few checks in Kupp’s name that have cost him 13 starts over the past two seasons. The emergence of Puka Nacua and the aforementioned Kyren Williams resulted in six-year lows for Kupp in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in 2023, casting a cloud over his future as he enters his age 31 season. However, ‘so far, so good’ says Sarah Barhop, with Kupp reportedly standing out now that he’s back and fully healthy heading into training camp this year. Whether or not Kupp will be able to recapture his 2021 form remains to be seen, but at a mid-3rd round price tag in an quality offense that picked things up for their playoff run last year, he’ll have the opportunity to prove that he’s still got it for fantasy purposes in 2024. While fantasy managers shouldn’t anticipate Kupp breaking the 150 target threshold, he was on pace for well over 100 targets in 2023 – a number that should be both easily attainable and more than enough to warrant consideration at his price.

Caleb Williams has landed in a serious situation - and for him, it’s great. He has three stud WRs to throw to, not to mention D’Andre Swift out of the backfield and some really good pass catching TEs as well in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. Former Seahawks OC Shane Waldron is now the Bears OC, and he had JSN as a rookie. Now he has Rome Odunze as a rookie… and some might look at that and say ‘ok, well if JSN had a relatively limited role Year 1, maybe we can expect the same for Rome.’ I don’t think that’s the case.

The first reason is that JSN is a slot receiver, so if you’re not in 3 WR sets, he’s off the field most of the time. The guy who I think is going to be off the field as the Bears slot receiver is Keenan Allen, not Rome Odunze. In 2 WR sets, I’m expecting it to be mainly DJ Moore and Rome Odunze on the field.

The second reason that I don’t look at it the same way is because Odunze is just a better prospect. He profiles more as that alpha WR - so this is not an apples to apples comparison between these two. The Bears offensive is expected to score points, and they’re expected to run at a decent pace. They’re also expected to throw the ball more than the league average especially on early downs - so there’s going to be a ton of fantasy points to go around. Let’s look at the prices…

DJ Moore’s the WR21, Keenan Allen’s the WR33, and Rome Odunze’s the WR38. I like DJ Moore as a player, but I don’t think it’s worth paying that price because there are too many scenarios where he doesn’t pay off at that price - or you should’ve waited to take one of the other two guys. The first scenario is that the targets are widely distributed and Moore will be very inconsistent because of it - and we also have to remember that this is still a rookie QB under center. Another scenario is that Rome Odunze can be that alpha right off the bat. We saw it with other baller WR prospects - and even with the target competition, I don’t think it’s too galaxy brained to say that Odunze can potentially lead this team in target share and fantasy points when it’s all said and done this year. I do think he competes for that title, even as a rookie WR - because he’s that good.

I’m okay avoiding this situation, but taking Rome WR38 seems like my play here - because a) I won’t get dinged too hard if he doesn’t pan out, b) he could just be a solid flex for me, which is fine at that price, or c) he becomes the alpha or close to it and I just got a serious value.

Nick Chubb is not the running back to target in the Browns backfield… there’s another running back who’s a glaring value for fantasy.

It felt like nothing could stop Nick Chubb until now. But ACL, MCL, and meniscus surgeries on the same knee he previously tore up in college aren’t good. Two other things aren’t working in his favor: he’s nearing the 1500-carry threshold, and he’s 28 years old - two markers at which when RBs tend to slow down. Before the injury, I would’ve bet the house on Chubb being an outlier, and I’m hoping Chubb can come back from this injury and prove all the doubters wrong, because if anyone can, it’s him… but he’s not a good bet, in my opinion.

Outside of Chubb, that leaves Jerome Ford and D’onta Foreman as the other primary RBs on the roster. Foreman was very productive when given opportunity, but the answer is clear to me that Jerome Ford is one of the best values of any RB in drafts right now. As the RB40, and he’s the Browns RB to go after.

Among 23 RBs with 200+ carries last year, Jerome Ford ranked 7th in yards after contact/attempt and 7th in missed tackles forced/attempt.For reference, Foreman didn’t come close to Ford’s efficiency, even with almost 100 less carries.

Then there’s what HC Kevin Stefanski had to say about the RB room:

It sounds to me like Ford is the guy. Chubb will return at some point during the season, but there’s a good chance Ford is the RB you want for fantasy for the entire year.

Are you betting on Nick Chubb to come back and be himself this year? Will he prove all the doubters wrong? Or should we be targeting other RBs in this backfield?