Derek Carr Could be Back After the Bye ⚜️

Still thinking about how Tyler Conklin robbed us and Garrett Wilson of his first top-12 finish of the season on that botched hail mary.

What’s in store:

• Devon Achane could be back this week! 🐬 It’s been a while since he’s graced our fantasy lineups, but that drought could come to an end very soon.

• Derek Carr could be back after the Saints’ Week 11 bye. Still would like to see what Jameis Winston could do for Chris Olave.

• Tyler delivers his top waiver wire targets. Right on schedule, too. Here are five players to prioritize adding ahead of Week 11.

• Rachaad White has been quietly getting it done. The utilization he’s received over the past 4 weeks suggests that he could continue to do so.

• Dolphins designate rookie RB Devon Achane to return from IR ahead of Week 11

  • Achane has finished serving what became an extended stay on IR with the Dolphins bye falling last week when he would have been eligible to return. With five weeks of rest in the rearview, it’s likely that Achane is ready to go for the Dolphins’ Week 11 matchup against the Raiders, who are currently allowing the fourht-most fantasy points to running backs this season. The electric rookie RB currently leads all NFL RBs in fantasy points per game with 25.4 and will look to keep up that torrid pace as soon as he’s activated from IR. While there’s no official guarantee that Achane will be elevated this week from IR and onto the active roster, the reports from HC Mike McDaniel over the past few weeks have suggested that Achane is right on schedule in his recovery. McDaniel also said when Achane was originally placed on IR that he wouldn’t miss more than the required four weeks, and there have been no reports to indicate that the timeline has shifted from that sentiment over the past month.

• Saints HC Dennis Allen says that WR Michael Thomas’ knee injury is ‘fairly significant’, is hopeful QB Derek Carr can return following Week 11 bye

  • Thomas has hardly been relevant in fantasy land through ten games this year, failing to finish inside the weekly top-20 on any occasion yet this season. While his struggle to get things going can be attributed in part to the struggles of Derek Carr and the New Orleans offense as a whole, any potential absence will only help to stratify the target distribution for the rest of the Saints’ pass catchers. Rookie WR A.T. Perry saw his first significant game action with Thomas sidelined for the majority of the contest and caught a touchdown on the most Jameis Winston-esque play you could imagine, but he won’t be a priority waiver wire addition this week. Meanwhile, Allen says that the hope is for Derek Carr to be ready to go by Week 12 following their Week 11 bye. Carr didn’t target the Saints’ top weapon, Chris Olave, once in the first half of this past weekend’ game, so fantasy managers likely aren’t pining for Carr to rush back to the lineup as soon as he can.

• Rams HC Sean McVay says that QB Matthew Stafford is expected to play in Week 11 vs Seahawks

  • Stafford’s return to action is absolutely paramount to restoring WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to fantasy glory after two straight games that left a sour taste in their fantasy manager’s mouths. This means that we won’t have to hinge our fantasy weeks on the right arm of the recently acquired QB Carson Wentz, which is obviously ideal, and the hope is that Stafford is back to 100% by the time he takes the field in Week 11. Both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have gone two straight games scoring single digit fantasy points, with the former’s quiet streak extending to three games back to Week 7. Stafford’s upside remains limited as it has all season, but the key takeaway here is that both Kupp and Nacua can once again be started with confidence as long as Stafford is healthy.

1. Keaton Mitchell (RB - Baltimore Ravens) - It was another week as the Ravens' most productive back by a definitive margin, breaking off a 39-yard TD in the first quarter while lead back Gus Edwards once again posted an ugly 2.2 YPC. He only got 22% of the snaps in Week 10, but he ranks 2nd in the NFL in runs of 20+ yards (3) - he has 12 total carries. His production and efficiency (especially relative to the inefficiency elsewhere in the Ravens' backfield) are too much to keep him from a notably increased role as the season progresses.

2. Brandin Cooks (WR - Dallas Cowboys) - Cooks has established himself as the definitive number 2 in the Cowboys' offense and has become more involved as the season has progressed, posting 14+ points in three of his last four games, including a 10-target (9 catches), 173-yard, 32.3-point game in Week 10. The schedule is fantastic down the stretch and, while the TD Dependency hasn't been ideal for him over the last month, Cooks could easily make a push to become a weekly FLEX option down the stretch.

3. Demario Douglas (WR - New England Patriots) - There's no more secure of a WR on waivers than Demario Douglas, now commanding 29 targets over his last four games, which have resulted in three 10+ point performances. He doesn't offer an exceptional weekly ceiling (in large part due to the QB play) but Douglas has entered borderline FLEX range on a weekly basis going forward.

4. Ty Chandler (RB - Minnesota Vikings) - Alexander Mattison exited Week 10 with a concussion, paving the way for Chandler to control the Vikings' backfield with 15 carries for 45 yards and a TD, leading the backfield 7-2 in carries after Mattison's departure. Chandler looked exceptional in the preseason and while he hasn't been overly efficient (3.4 YPC) this season, the door is open for him to not only serve as a short-term RB2/FLEX option but also potentially steal the starting job after Mattison has struggled with just 2.85 YPC over the last 6 weeks.

5. Zach Charbonnet (RB - Seattle Seahawks) - Charbonnet's efficiency continues to be incredible, eclipsing 5+ YPC for the 4th time in 6 games and bringing his season-long YPC to 5.6. What was new for Charbonnet was an increased utilization in the receiving game, drawing season-highs in targets (5), catches (4), and receiving yards (18). It was back-to-back sub-par rushing performances from Kenneth Walker (3.3 YPC in Week 10, 1.8 YPC in Week 9), so Charbonnet could easily continue his upward trajectory as the season progresses. The upside is certainly there for an end-of-season lineup option.

Buccaneers RB Rachaad White has quietly produced at an RB1 level over the course of the year, ranking as the current overall RB8 in total fantasy points scored and the overall RB12 in fantasy points per game. While White got off to a slow start at the beginning of the year (four finishes outside the top-20 at the position in five games), White has seen his utilization spike and become a much more integral part of the Buccaneer’s offense over his last four games he’s played from Weeks 7-10.

Over the past four weeks, Rachaad White is averaging just under 20 fantasy points per game - ranking as the RB4 in that span behind just Jahmyr Gibbs, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey. That’s come on the back of a greatly expanded role in the Tampa Bay offense, with Rachaad White jumping from a 52.6% rush attempts share and 10.4% target share in Weeks 1-6 up to a 63.9% rush attempts share and 14.0% target share in Weeks 7-10. The shares only tell part of the story though, with White also earning the fifth-most total targets over the past four weeks (20) and the seventh-most rush attempts (62) in that span as well.

That bump in utilization propelled White from 13.1 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-6 up to 18.9 fantasy points per game in Weeks 7-10, and he’s sprinkled in a little bit of efficiency as well to bring his true fantasy points per game to where it sits over the past four weeks. White has also finished as a top-12 PPR fantasy running back in each of the past four weeks after doing so just once through his first five games.

White has lived up to his expectations and even somewhat exceeded them so far in 2023 as a volume-based RB2, relying on sheer volume to make a mark in fantasy lineups each week. His 69.3% snap share ranks fifth among all NFL running backs, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon, and Saquon Barkley.