DHop is a Titan ⚔️

Awful nice of the NFL to have a bunch of breaking news over the weekend while we don’t publish our newsletter.

What’s in store:

• Goodbye Treylon Burks, Hello DeAndre Hopkins! The WR landscape is shifting after the Titans landed heavily sought after FA WR DeAndre Hopkins.

• Break out in your fantasy league with these two breakout players! ⭐️ Faraz has two 2023 breakout candidates that are set up to take the next step.

• No draft is lost in the later rounds, but they can be won in the later rounds. At least that’s what they say. Zach gives three of his favorite dart throws in drafts this year.

• Can Juju take advantage of minimal competition in New England? See why Tyler thinks that Juju can be a sneaky fantasy WR2 as things stand today.

• Tennessee Wins DeAndre Hopkins Sweepstakes, Lands Star WR ⚔️

  • DeAndre Hopkins will immediately assume the WR1 role and workload for the 2023 season, casting serious doubt on Treylon Burks’ fantasy prospects and the targets that will be available to him on a weekly basis. Without the guaranteed volume, Treylon Burks looks to fall squarely out of the WR2 conversation and potentially even the WR3 conversation, especially in a run-first Titans offense. Hopkins showed that he has plenty left in the tank last year upon his return from his 6-game suspension, pacing the Cardinals in targets and finishing inside the weekly top-15 five times. Hopkins becomes a safe WR2 as the clear alpha in the Titans offense, and any auxiliary receivers (Kyle Philips, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine) are completely out of the picture, if they weren’t already. Despite added target competition, Chig Okonkwo shouldn’t see too great a disparity in his target projection for 2023, given that he plays a different position and is likely to be on the field in most, if not all, formations – something Treylon Burks may not enjoy.

• Ok, it’s happening – this might not be a drill, people!

  • Jets RB Breece Hall didn’t mince his words during an NFL Network interview, once again reiterating that he’ll “be ready for the first game” in 2023. As things ramp up towards the beginning of the regular season, the reports regarding Breece Hall’s recovery have all been positive and have culminated in Hall’s aforementioned vote of confidence in himself. If Hall truly is able to start in Week 1 without limitations, there should be no questions about his fantasy value both in the short and long term. However, it’s worth noting that simply starting in Week 1 and handling a full workload are two very different things, and it will be difficult to gauge his true value until we see Hall step on the field. Regardless, this is great news, and Breece Hall’s fantasy managers can rest assured that it appears that he will be able to contribute right away, even if it’s in a somewhat limited capacity.

• Jacksonville locks up one of Trevor Lawrence’s favorite targets from last year

  • According to Jordan Schultz from theScore, the Jaguars are bringing back franchise-tagged TE Evan Engram on a 3-year, $42.5M deal with $25.5M guaranteed. Engram finished last year as the overall fantasy TE5, posting 73 catches for 766 yards and 4 TDs and averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game. Engram’s stock in both dynasty and redraft should be trending up after the signing, which indicates that the Jaguars plan to continue to feature him in the offense in 2023 and beyond. The fantasy community has largely been approaching the prospect of drafting players in the Jags offense as though Engram were going to play this season regardless of his contract situation, so the landscape remains largely unscathed in the wake of the signing. Engram will look to replicate the production he found at the end of the year with Lawrence in 2023.

• WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

  • The Broncos’ offense was a shit show last year, and it definitely affected Jeudy - he was inconsistent, he was banged up at points throughout the year, but he had his games –especially towards the end of the year.

  • If you just count his full games played last year, he averaged 17 PPR points/game, which would’ve a top-12 fantasy finish. And according to FantasyLife, Jerry Jeudy had the 10th highest yards/route run among all WRs with 100 or more targets. That’s right behind Amon-Ra, Stefon Diggs, and CeeDee Lamb.

  • Now the Broncos have brought in Sean Payton to spearhead what should be a more functional offense, and Jeudy will be featured more than he was last year. The fact that he’s coming off the board as the WR20 on Underdog and the WR25(!) on Sleeper makes him a significant value in drafts.

• RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

  • I think he’s going to be THE breakout RB of 2023. I love the fact he’s a year removed from a bad injury, I love his price at the 4/5 turn - I’m happy with him as my RB2, but I do think he has RB1 upside and that he’s a dark horse candidate to lead the league in rushing.

  • He has the talent, a great offensive line, and is averaging 5.9 yards/carry so far over his career – the stars could realistically align to make it happen.

  • Dobbins feels like the discount version of RBs like Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Derrick Henry – guys who get a ton of volume on the ground and are efficient while doing it.

  • I think a lot of people are going to ask, “well, what about Gus Edwards?” Are Gus and JK are on the same level? Probably not. This timeshare might have left the station with Greg Roman.

  • It’s also worth mentioning that Nick Chubb got his high receiving totals with Todd Monken, the Ravens new OC, when he was OC in Cleveland: he used his RBs in the receiving game at Georgia, and Dobbins himself had 71 catches through his three seasons in Ohio State.

  • I know we don’t love rushing QBs throwing to their RBs, but if it’s dialed into the scheme a little bit, we could see Dobbins pick up 40 receptions this year. People forget the type of talent Dobbins is, and the truth is that he was really efficient his rookie year - yards after contact, forced missed tackle rate, big plays all checked out.

  • We even saw the big plays with Dobbins running on one leg last year - and now that he’s over the bad injury, and he’s trying to get paid, I don’t really want to leave drafts without him.

• Tyjae Spears (RB53, 15th Round)

  • Spears is the perfect complement to Derrick Henry, and it’s his dual-threat ability out of the backfield that’s going to buy him more time on the field.

  • Not only is he an extremely talented runner (he was 22nd out of 146 backs with 100 carries in 2022 in yards per attempt and 21st in yards after contact), but he’s also an elite pass catcher (he was PFF’s 2nd-highest graded running back in overall receiving grade).

  • With Derrick Henry allegedly getting closer and closer to the RB production cliff, investing a late round pick in a guy who figures to see the field on passing downs and that profiles as a three-down handcuff to Henry is a no brainer. He’s been impressive in OTA’s according to multiple reports, and with Hassan Haskins picking up a domestic violence charge within the last week and a half, the path to become the clear RB2 in Tennessee is wide open for Spears.

  • Spears won’t be competing for your RB2 or even RB3 spot this season, especially not early on, but he can grow into a serviceable flex player if the Titans decide they want to tap the brakes with Henry’s usage at all in 2023.

•  Josh Downs (WR88, 18th Round)

  • What does Josh Downs have going for him in Indianapolis? Well, he’s a certified slot guy with a knack for demanding targets from there – and it just so happens that the Colts vacated their top slot guy in Parris Campbell this offseason, who garnered 85 targets in 2022. He’s also an excellent separator and should have no trouble producing once he assumes his position as the slot receiver.

  • The problem for Downs will be getting to that point. First, he’ll have to go through another slot ace in Isaiah McKenzie – somebody he could realistically end up splitting time with if he’s not able to separate during camp. Then, assuming he can get there, he’ll then have to deal with a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson, and he isn’t exactly known for his accuracy.

  • The cards will have to fall exactly right for Downs to unlock his upside, but that’s pretty much the way it goes when you’re drafting in the 18th round. And if those two conditions are met at any point in the season, Downs will have the chance to be a strong weekly contributor as a WR3 or flex.

• Nathaniel Dell (WR92, 18th Round)

  • Texans HC DeMeco Ryans has said that Tank Dell has been getting open plenty in offseason training so far, so that’s just about exactly what you’d want to hear for a guy that’s going to have a little work to do before he can be a solid fantasy contributor on the Texans offense.

  • C.J. Stroud apparently also went out of his way to get the Texans to keep Dell in Houston, and they spent a second round pick on him. So the draft capital is there, the situation is there, and the need at slot receiver is there – and that’s exactly where Dell is at his best running from.

  • He was supremely productive in his last two years at Houston – he put up an absurd 199 receptions on 291 targets for over 2700 yards and 29 touchdowns. His separation is going to be what allows him to produce in the NFL, and he’ll live or die by that at his size. But in the 18th round, you can’t go wrong taking Dell because the upside, as he demonstrated in college, is massive.

If you told anyone before 2022 that Mahomes would go for 5,000+ yards and 40+ TDs, they would’ve likely thought JuJu saw a massive season as his WR1, but it was shown that top-end QB production doesn’t necessarily equate to top-end WR production, even from the team’s top WR.

It was only a decent season for JuJu, finishing with 78 catches for 933 yards and 3 TDs as the WR27 on the season – overall decent numbers that seem underwhelming when considering Mahomes’ monster season.

A large reason for JuJu’s limited production was the competition for targets in Kansas City over the center of the field between slot WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and TE Travis Kelce. Very rarely was Mahomes going away from his go-to target in Kelce, especially if another weapon wasn’t wide open.

Now in New England, JuJu won’t have the QB quality that he saw in Kansas City or Pittsburgh before that, getting a relatively unproven Mac Jones. The good news is that the offense is wide open for targets with only two players exceeding an 11% target share in 2022 – one of which being RB Rhamondre Stevenson and the other being WR Jakobi Meyers, who departed this offseason.

The opportunity is certainly there for JuJu to be a sneaky volume-based WR once again if he can establish a rapport with Mac Jones, offering potential WR2 upside.

I’m all for targeting New England’s slot receiver in JuJu as a projected WR4/5 option on draft day, going in the late-9th/early-10th round range. Of course, that all goes out the window if free agent WR DeAndre Hopkins opts to sign with New England.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Lions QB Jared Goff is currently coming off the board on Underdog fantasy as the overall QB17, seven spots lower than his 2022 QB10 finish in total fantasy points. Despite the Lions boasting one of the league’s top offensive lines, multiple explosive additions to Goff’s arsenal, and the team being on a strong upswing heading into 2023, his price remains remarkably low – and more importantly, affordable.

Even during a rough start to the fantasy season, Goff was able to put up two Top-10 finishes at the QB position, including one overall QB1 weekly finish in week 4 against Seattle. But halfway through the season, the Lions as a team found their footing and Goff became one of the most reliable quarterbacks in fantasy. From Week 12 on, Goff was the QB6 in fantasy points per game, ahead of Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert in that span.

That hot streak featured Goff racking up a pristine 14:0 TD:INT ratio, while also tying with Josh Allen for the second most touchdowns thrown with 14. Goff also attempted the fourth-most passes in the league in that span, as well. With the Lions offense only getting better this offseason and the former first overall pick playing his best football since his days with the Rams, Goff looks the part of a screaming value in fantasy drafts in 2023.