Diontae Johnson can't find a home 🏠

ICYMI: Faraz’s updated dynasty fantasy football rankings going into the offseason have been updated and are available now on our website!

• There’s a ‘lot of momentum’ building towards Lions OC Ben Johnson taking the Raiders head coaching job, per Vinny Bonsignore

  • Maybe the Tom Brady effect is in play here as he’s supposedly playing a significant role in the search for a new head coach. Johnson has been at the top of the wishlist for many teams over each of the past two seasons as head coaching jobs have opened and filled, but he’s remained in Detroit on both occasions prior to this season. However, entering the third head coaching cycle could prove to be a different case as Bonsignore indicates that things appear to be swinging in favor of Johnson taking the head coaching job in Las Vegas once all is said and done in the NFL playoffs. Johnson’s resume speaks for itself over the past two years with the Lions, and as such, he’s reportedly been very selective when it comes to considering head coaching opportunities over the past two seasons. It’s been rumored that he’s looking for a destination with a young talented core in place (which would suggest Chicago), but the appeal of the bright lights in Vegas and the potential to hand-pick a signal caller from the 2025 class of quarterbacks could be enticing the wonder boy OC to take his talents to sin city. The fantasy takeaways would be clear: Brock Bowers would be elevated as a clear favorite to finish as the overall TE1, while Jakobi Meyers would be in line for what would likely be his most productive season of his career. Wherever Johnson takes his talents, offensive success is likely to follow – keep an eye on this situation as it unfolds.

• The Texans waived former Panthers and Ravens WR Diontae Johnson, who will likely be a free agent going into the new league year

  • That’s despite being claimed by the Ravens off of waivers, but he won’t play for them during their playoff run the rest of the way. Johnson was reportedly released as a result of becoming a locker room distraction, and after his sideshow of a stint in Baltimore that saw him catch a whopping one pass in his handful of games there, the future for Johnson is uncertain. Despite the fact that the Panthers were losing with him earlier this season, Johnson himself was putting up perfectly respectable numbers in the first half of the season with the team; however, Johnson was frustrated by the losing and was ultimately dealt at the trade deadline to the Ravens – who went on to use him as a benchwarmer. While the entire situation over the past few weeks is incredibly questionable, what isn’t questionable is his prowess as a target-earning receiver – and going into just his age-29 season, Johnson had plenty to offer to his next team. Which team that winds up being will likely be settled later this offseason when free agency is fully underway, but Johnson’s 27% target share, 41% air yards share and three top-12 finishes in seven games with Carolina makes him a force to be reckoned with in any receiver room he might join.

• Steelers HC Mike Tomlin was noncommital on returning either of Russell Wilson or Justin Fields as starting quarterback for the team in 2025

  • Both Steelers quarterbacks, despite simply managing the game for the team when they were on the field this season, were relatively dependable in terms of their fantasy production: Fields averaged 18.9 points per game across his six starts to open the year, while Wilson averaged 16.8 across eleven starts to close the season out. With the Steelers going one-and-done again in the playoffs, though, and with neither quarterback under contract for the 2025 season, things could look drastically different potentially by the next time we see Pittsburgh on the field. Should the Steelers hold onto Justin Fields and let Wilson walk – as well as neglect to add any notable signal callers via free agency/the draft (not a gaurantee) – Fields would likely profile as a low-end QB1 by the time 2025 rolls around. It’s hard to imagine the Steelers re-upping with Wilson after the offense fizzled out without George Pickens over the last few weeks of the season, so there’s a chance there could be a market fro Wilson, as well, if he wouldn’t be retained by Pittsburgh. At any rate, uncertainty under center could spell trouble for George Pickens, and after a relatively disappointing season for him, his dynasty stock price could be approaching the buy threshold if it dips low enough.

Draft Players on Good Teams

Duh! It sounds like a obvious point, but as we’ve seen, a rising tide lifts all boats. This includes quarterbacks and running backs on good offenses that you think are going to score a lot of points. All ten of this year’s top-10 QBs in points per game came from offenses that ranked top-15 in scoring, and 9 out of this year’s top-10 running backs came from offenses that had top-15 Vegas implied scoring totals coming into the season. Certain offenses fall in and out of the top of the pecking order when it comes to production each year, but perennial performers like the Ravens and Eagles almost always turn out one or two top players at their respective positions per year.

Take Your Shot at Rushing QBs, Even Rookies.

Conversely, don’t spend a high draft pick on a non-rushing quarterback. The upside for rushing quarterbacks is inherently higher with one rushing yard being worth 2.5x as much as one passing yard, and rush touchdowns being worth 1.5x as much as a passing touchdown. Jayden Daniels finished as the QB5 with 864 yards and six touchdowns on the ground despite throwing for fewer yards than C.J. Stroud (a non-rushing QB whose ADP was, ironically, the QB5 in drafts). At the end of the day, it’s easier to produce for fantasy as a solid rushing quarterback – you don’t have to be hyper-efficient in the passing game like the Jared Goffs and Dak Prescotts of the world.

WR talent almost always trumps QB situation.

Sam Darnold ended up playing well, so Justin Jefferson surviving year one of life after Kirk Cousins was understandable. But Malik Nabers is a landmark case in why we should trust talent over circumstance – he hit the ground running as an elite target earner and finished as a top-6 WR in points per game with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy Devito under center – as a rookie. Nabers was one of the best college prospects we’ve seen in the past decade, and that talent was more than enough to not only buoy him through the rough New York Giants waters, but also help him to a top-6 finish this season. Drake London also played well despite a surprisingly bad QB situation, a testament to his target earning ability and exceptionalism as a talent.

Quality of a college prospect plays a significant role

It’s no coincidence that the top three running backs this year (Saquon, Bijan, and Jahmyr) were all amazing prospects coming out of college. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, too, was a great example this season of betting on the talent, even after an underwhelming rookie season. Bearing that in mind, we should continue to buy into guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, and even Breece Hall after a down year – the talent doesn’t disappear overnight, and sometimes it can take a little time before we start seeing that talent pop back up on the stat sheet.