D.J. Moore is a Slam-Dunk Start! 🐻

At this point, injuries can’t be an excuse for fantasy teams anymore just based on sheer numbers alone. Seems like everyone is dealing with major turnover in their starting lineups.

What’s in store:

• A tough matchup just got even tougher for the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland is expected to be without Deshaun Watson for a second straight game.

• Can D.J. Moore and Justin Fields stay hot? A matchup against Minnesota gives them everything they could want in Week 6.

• Nico Collins could stay frosty for the second week in a row. 🥶 Marshon Lattimore is the second top corner Collins will face in as many games.

• Christian Watson has a chance to dominate these next few weeks! 🧀  His workload nearly doubled from Week 4 to Week 5, and the outlook is promising after Green Bay’s Week 6 bye.

• Browns QB Deshaun Watson expected to miss Sunday’s game vs 49ers with shoulder injury

  • Another tough matchup, another week with a backup quarterback under center for the Browns. The last time we saw Cleveland was in Week 4 against the Ravens before their bye in a game where Dorian Thompson-Robinson looked every bit the rookie he was coming into the season, which led to quiet days from Browns receivers. No pass catcher had more than 46 receiving yards on the day. The presumed starter this week, P.J. Walker, offers a bit more of an encouraging outlook for names like Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore, but the 49ers will likely have no trouble mitigating the effectiveness of the career backup. For this week, it’s difficult to start any Browns pass catchers with confidence. Watson should be back next week barring unforeseen setbacks.

• Giants RB Saquon Barkley practices Thursday, QB Daniel Jones does not ahead of Week 6 matchup against the Bills

  • Barkley has missed three straight games since his fantastic performance against the Cardinals but looks to be on track to return for a tough matchup against the Bills in Buffalo. The Giants offense has been downright anemic this season, and that’s been the case regardless of whether or not Barkley’s in the lineup. However, no offense can go backward by getting the most talented player on that side of the ball back in a tough matchup, so there should be optimism that Barkley can return to his usual RB1 form and potentially help lift the Giants at least partway out of the mud for the rest of the season. While Barkley is trending up, Daniel Jones is trending down with his neck injury – and it’s truthfully amazing that he’s still got any kind of shot to play with the amount of hits he’s taken through five weeks. If the Giants would give Jones the day off, Tyrod Taylor would step in as the punching bag and likely not present any higher of a ceiling or any more secure of a floor than Jones has behind a turnstyle offensive line.

• Buccaneers WR Mike Evans misses practice Thursday, slated for pivotal day Friday

  • Since the Buccaneers are coming off their bye in Week 5, Evans has yet to miss a game despite the injury occurring all the way back in Week 4. That hasn’t stopped the hamstring issue from keeping Evans off the practice field, who has yet to participate even in a limited fashion. He’s been QB Baker Mayfield’s favorite target so far this season, but any time missed by him would be enough to give teammate Chris Godwin a significant upgrade in a matchup where the Bucs could realistically be chasing points. The Lions qualify as a plus matchup with regards to the number of fantasy points allowed to WRs so far this season (10th-most in the NFL), and they’ve been particularly vulnerable in the slot allowing the second most points to receivers lined up there. Godwin would be a solid start if Evans misses.

Matchups to Target:

• Drake London vs. Commanders

  • Commanders: allowing the2 2nd-most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season

  • London: 23% target share, 30% air yards share since week 2; looks like they finally figured out that using their best perimeter receiver will help them win games

  • He’s also had 100% of the Falcons’ end zone targets over the past three weeks - four targets and just one touchdown to show for it

• Zay Flowers vs. Tennessee

  • Tennessee: top-12 in fantasy points allowed to slot and perimeter wide receivers; allowing the 7th-most fantasy points overall

  • Flowers: 100% route participation - he’s not coming off the field. His 28% target share is also highest on the team, ahead of Mark Andrews (20% through four games)

  • Flowers runs his routes all over the field - 27+% of routes at each position: left, right, and slot. He’ll be able to take advantage of a very beatable secondary

• D.J. Moore vs Minnesota

  • Minnesota: allowing the 8th most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers, 4th most fantasy points overall

  • Moore: runs 83% of his routes on the perimeter, but should be able to win anywhere against this defense; 38% target share and 55% air yards share for Moore has evidently been the key to turning the Bears’s offense around - huh, who would have thought that using the player you traded for would be a good idea?

  • I think I’m willing to buy that D.J. Moore and Justin Fields can keep this kind of production up for the next few weeks, and that’s going to make them fantasy stars. Fields is also averaging 9.6 yards per attempt in the past two games vs just 6 per attempt in the first three.

Matchups to Avoid:

• Marquise Brown vs. LAR

  • Rams: allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season, but have been gashed in the slot - allowing 4th most fantasy points there

  • Brown: runs 80% of his routes from the perimeter; he’s had three touchdowns in the past four games, and a 10 target game in the one where he didn’t score. He’s been pretty reliable, but it’ll be a tough matchup this week.

  • Rams are 7 point favorites in this one, and that probably has a lot to do with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Cardinals could be in a position to pass a lot, especially with James Conner out of the lineup.

  • Not worried about Brown despite the matchup. He should be able to continue putting up his signature 16 points per game.

• Nico Collins vs. NO

  • Collins: bonafide perimeter wide receiver coming off a quiet week, and it could be more of the same this week. Saints are allowing 5th-least fantasy points to the perimeter receivers; Collins runs 82% of his routes from the outside

  • In a similarly tough matchup last week against the Falcons, Collins and the Texans passing offense had trouble getting things going. Collins was targeted just four times

  • He’ll be lining up against Marshon Lattimore, which is a less than ideal matchup. Tank Dell will be out, but he missed a lot of the game last week and Collins still wasn’t able to capitalize

• Josh Downs vs. JAX

  • Downs: has been a favorite target of Gardner Minshew’s - in two of his starts this season (Weeks 3 and 5) - 26% target share, 25% air yards share, and two top 30 performances

  • HOWEVER: Jacksonville has been locking down the slot, which is where Downs is running essentially all of his routes from. The Jags are allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers, which isn’t THAT big of a deal…

  • But they’re also very vulnerable on the outside, and that’s Michael Pittman’s wheel house. Jacksonville is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers, and Pittman runs over 70% of his routes on the outside. There’s a chance that Minshew makes it a Pittman day on Sunday.

Christian Watson made his 2023 debut last Thursday night in Week 4 against the Lions, but didn’t receive a full workload in his first action of the year. That led to teammate Romeo Doubs receiving 13 targets in that game while Watson saw just four targets (one of which he caught for a touchdown to salvage the day). The tables turned in Week 5, with Watson running much closer to a full complement of routes while easily pacing Packers wide receivers in target share on the week.

In just his second game this season, Watson ramped up his route participation from 48% in Week 4 to 85% in Week 5, while simultaneously jumping from a 12% target share to 26% in that two-game span, as well. His seven targets Monday night led the team by a wide margin, with the next-highest target earner on the team seeing just four targets in the contest (Romeo Doubs).

He’s currently averaging over 23 yards per reception heading into the Packers’ Week 6 bye, which should only help ensure that Watson is back to 100% the next time he steps onto the field. He’ll also face a Denver secondary in Week 7 that’s allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL, followed by a Top-2 matchup with the Vikings in Week 8. He’s primed to enjoy his 2023 breakout in short order, and we could have a new mainstay in the top-10 of our fantasy rankings in just a few weeks.