Dobbins is Done for 2023 😭

Welcome to the NFL, Puka Nacua!

What’s in store:

• J.K. Dobbins is already done for the year 😭. He suffered a torn achilles yesterday in what’s been an unfortunate series of events.

• Can Bijan AND Allgeier eat in Atlanta? If they continue to underutilize their receivers, it’s a real possibility!

• The Bengals lay an egg in Cleveland. If you started any of their players this week, you’re probably heading into MNF down a lot of points.

• Drake London is an outlier for the wrong reasons in Week 1. See what’s got the fantasy community infuriated with him.

• J.K. Dobbins tears achilles, will miss entire 2023 season

  • Just a brutal development for Dobbins, who has essentially suffered back-to-back season-ending injuries after failing to reach 100% in his action last year while making his return from an ACL+ injury. With Dobbins out, the Ravens backfield is suddenly very thin, with just Gus Edwards and Justice Hill slated to pick up the slack. There’s a chance that Baltimore explores free agency to add some depth, and with names like Leonard Fournette still available, this backfield could certainly be a candidate for a shakeup in the near future. The Ravens have also activated RB Melvin Gordon from the practice squad, so expect a backfield geared more toward a committee approach for the time being.

• Kyren Williams – not Cam Akers – carries the day for the Rams rushing attack

  • Sound the alarm for Cam Akers once again, because Kyren Williams dominated the Rams backfield and it wasn’t particularly close between the two. Where Cam Akers once had dominating control over the goal line touches and the early down workload, Kyren Williams has taken over. Neither running back was overly involved in the receiving game, but it’s worth noting that Williams saw two targets while Cam Akers didn’t see any. Akers, who looked primed to get his career back on track after a strong finish to the 2022 season is once again playing second fiddle to a relative nobody in Week 1 – something we saw happen last season with Darrell Henderson.

• Anthony Richardson suffers bone bruise towards end of game vs. Jaguars

  • Richardson sustained the injury late in the game on a run at the goal line, but he followed up with reporters after the game and indicated that he should be fine and ready to go for Week 2. The rookie quarterback demonstrated why he should be considered a top-flight fantasy quarterback, even in his first start against a good Jaguars team. He had arguably the strongest performance of any rookie QB from the 2023 class, and he looked comfortable in the NFL setting despite a short resume in college and drama unfolding around him throughout the offseason. Assuming there are no problems that pop up during the coming week, Richardson can be started as a low QB1 in most leagues in Week 2.

• Snaps were split evenly between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier through the course of the game, but Allgeier kind of played a closer role. First three quarters - Robinson was on the field for 79% of snaps. Allgeier also was the goal line back in this game - he ended up with 2 TDs on top of his 15 carries and a total of 18 touches.

• I don’t expect Allgeier to be the goal line guy all year long… we’re going to see a split there at the very least at some point. Both of these backs can be fantasy relevant - Bijan getting a 33% target share while running a route on 82% of dropbacks is elite, and he ran only two less routes than London and Pitts. Robinson is a must-start every week, and Allgeier is a sell high candidate. He’ll have his games, sure, because this is an effective run-heavy attack… but if you can get a real RB2 back, I’d do that. You can imagine the backfield shifting even more in Bijan’s favor, so this might be Allgeier peak to start the year.

• And when the run game is working, and the Falcons don’t have to throw it, they won’t. Drake London got 1 target, Kyle Pitts had 3. That’s embarrassing man. Get your playmakers involved. I know they won the game, but 1 target for your star WR is insane. For Mack Hollins to out-target London, that’s just irresponsible.

• Joe Burrow… wow. What a forgettable performance. 82 yards passing. The Browns came to play, and Burrow and Co. did not. That led to another guy missing on the stat sheet, and that was Tee Higgins. 9 targets for Ja’Marr Chase, who only finished with 5/39, and 8 targets for Tee Higgins, who finished with no catches. The Bengals lost a lot of people their fantasy matchups this week… but hey, this is the lowest this offense will be this year. They’ll bounce back next week - throw some offers out there for Tee Higgins because he’s a high-end WR2 - just go get that guy if you can. I’m not worried or anything moving forward. Just a really terrible Week 1. Don’t want to overreact.

• Joe Mixon still doesn’t have the third down role. Trayveon Williams was the guy behind him mostly, while Chris Evans also had opportunities. Joe Mixon is going to be dependent on TDs - good thing this will be a good offense.

• Without Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb has the same role he had. Played on less than 50% of snaps, ran only 12 routes. Jerome Ford is in the Kareem Hunt role - 3rd down guy and increased role as a closer.

• Both Elijah Moore and Amari Cooper tied with 7 targets each - 24% target share from Deshaun Watson, and Moore also had 2 extra carries out of the backfield. This is very encouraging for Moore, but it’s also worth noting that Amari was banged up for a bit of this game and didn’t play a whole lot in the 4th quarter. More confidence in starting Elijah Moore going forward though.

• This really sucks for JK Dobbins. The dude was in for such a big year. 80% of snaps in the first half - he was turning into a legit bell cow on a good offense. This isn’t good for his career - brutal ACL and now one of the most brutal injuries that a football player can sustain… wish the best for the guy.

• Justice Hill/Gus Edwards - I’m personally aiming for Justice Hill, and I think this is a situation where a lot of people will #1) aim for Edwards and #2 it’ll be easier and cheaper to get Hill. Hill was the preferred back all of camp, he was the standout RB throughout camp with Dobbins out for a lot of it, and in this offense, you have to be versatile, and Hill is that.

• Dobbins can still close out games, but Hill was the one getting the goal line carries and the TDs - this would’ve been a 3 TD game for Dobbins to be honest, but Hill can continue what he was doing in camp. Can the Ravens bring in a RB like Kareem Hunt? Maybe. But I think they like Hill enough for him to be the 1a in this backfield. He’s one of the top waiver adds this week.

Just weeks after we highlighted Drake London’s massive target share at the tail end of the 2022 season with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, the Falcons WR was a complete non-factor in Week 1 agains the Panthers. As if it wasn’t bad enough that London went without a catch, he was out-targeted by Falcons’ No.2 receiver Mack Hollins on the day, and Arthur Smith continued his run as one of the most frustrating head coaches in fantasy football.

Adding insult to injury for fantasy football managers was the fact that London was on the field for 90% of snaps and also logged a 90% route participation – both statistics that suggest a target number higher than one, which is what London ultimately saw.

Part of the problem was the Falcons’ success with running the ball, but also the success that Desmond Ridder had throwing the ball to running backs out of the backfield. Arthur Smith was content with keeping the load on Ridder light, with HALF of his pass attempts targeting running backs.