Draft Bijan HOW HIGH?

You think it’s hot outside? The trade block is about to be hotter when we figure out what’s happening with Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley this season!

What’s in store:

• Saquon isn’t actually going to hold out in 2023… right? That’s been the sentiment so far this offseason, but as the closer we get to the regular season, the harder his managers are sweating. 😓

• Want to make money in a few simple clicks? Of course you do! And that’s exactly what Faraz is here to help with, giving you three of his favorite Underdog Pick’ems that you can play RIGHT NOW!

• The community has questions. Zach has answers. We dive into two questions from our followers over on Instagram and provide some clarity as we get into the thick of draft season.

• Can D.J. Moore rely on Justin Fields to return to fantasy prominence? On paper, the move looks great. But Tyler is actually bearish on Moore at his current ADP. 🐻

• Giants, Saquon Barkley stuck in the mud on potential extension

  • ESPN’s Diana Russini reports that the star running back “remains in a stalemate” with the Giants front office regarding his contract situation. With the deadline for new deals with franchise tagged players approaching (July 17), it’s possible that we see Saquon hold out for part or even all of training camp heading into the 2023 season. It’s hard to imagine the situation deteriorating to the point where Saquon would miss time during the regular season, but it’s something to consider as we approach Week 1 with no progress having been made to this point. Matt Breida and Eric Gray head up the relief in Barkley’s stead should he hold out, but it’s possible that the Giants could look to free agency for reinforcements at RB if that were the case. Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, and Ezekiel Elliott all need homes, and the Giants could become a surprise landing spot for one of those ballcarriers.

• Better days ahead for this Cleveland duo?

  • Browns QB Deshaun Watson said that he expects his and Amari Cooper’s connection to be ‘tight’ for the 2023 season, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com. Watson played notably below average in his return to action last year, but should receive the benefit of the doubt heading into the new year with a full offseason program to integrate into the Browns system. Cooper, however, played his best ball with Jacoby Brissett, not Deshaun Watson, under center – while also putting up some peculiar home and away splits in 2022. However, with Watson reportedly looking like a different player so far this offseason and Cooper and Watson going out of their way to build chemistry on and off the field, the upside both players present is very promising.

• ⬆️ Trevor Lawrence OVER 26.5 passing TDs

  • I think many of us, including myself, are expecting Lawrence to that jump to where he shows everyone why he was not only the #1 overall pick a couple of years ago, but why he was one of the best QBs prospects coming out.

  • In the first 8 games of last year, he threw 1.3 TDs per game with a 10:6 TD:INT ratio. In the 2nd half, or in the last 9 games of the season, he threw 15:2 TD:INT ratio. He also averaged 22 more yards passing per game. He looked like a different player down the stretch.

  • Here’s the thing, this pass TD line is set at 26.5 TDs. He threw for 25 TDs last year. Without Calvin Ridley. Add Calvin Ridley, he’s in the 2nd year of Doug Pederson’s system, he still has Christian Kirk, still has Zay Jones, and still has Evan Engram - who he formed a late season connection with. He has the supporting cast, and he himself can take a step forward into that elite QB category this year.

• ⬇️ Jordan Addison UNDER 825.5 receiving yards

  • Since 2010, only 2 WRs to be taken after the Top-20 in the first round have reached that mark. Justin Jefferson, and Kelvin Benjamin. If there was a 17th game, maybe Calvin Ridley, maybe DeAndre Hopkins, maybe DJ Moore - Brandon Aiyuk missed a few games his rookie year, he definitely would’ve hit it. But the hit rate would still be below 20%. And is Addison going to get that as the #2? Is he the #2 target, or is TJ Hockenson the #2 target?

  • If we only look at Round 1 WRs since 2010, picked anywhere, the guys who have hit that were mainly the primary passing option on their offense, and were very high level prospects. I love Addison, I think he’s a great prospect, but I don’t think he’s in the category of guys like Drake London, DeVonta Smith, and Ceedee Lamb – guys who didn’t even hit 1000 yards their rookie year, albeit in 16 games.

• ⬆️ Mark Andrews OVER 800.5 receiving yards

  • I’m staying with the Ravens on this one with Mark Andrews. How is his line only at 800 receiving yards? It might be because of how seemingly crowded this receiving core is, but I think the pecking order is pretty determined at this point, and that is Andrews is that dude - he’s eating first. If there was an alpha WR on this roster right now, sure… but there isn’t one at this point, especially because Bateman’s still dealing with the Lisfranc injury.

  • Andrews hit 800 yards last year in only 15 games - and Lamar wasn’t even healthy. He hit this mark 3 of the last 4 seasons, and now he’s going to be the first option in a more pass-friendly system.

Q: How high would you be willing to take Bijan Robinson in redraft?

A: I think third overall behind CMC and Justin Jefferson, because that’s the type of ceiling he has even in his rookie year. It’s not like he was drafted by a team that’s going to have a bad offense – the Falcons offensive line was recently ranked 7th best in the NFL by PFF, and 4th best in the league by RotoWire.

We also know that the Falcons are going to continue to run the ball at one of the highest rates in the NFL – Arthur Smith called the most run plays of any team in the NFL last year, and even if that number comes down a bit if Desmond Ridder improves as the season goes on, it’s basically a lock that they’ll be inside the top 10.

So then the question becomes, does Tyler Allgeier worry me at all as far as cutting into Bijan’s workload goes? The answer for me is no – The Falcons averaged just under 33 run plays per game last year, so that leaves room for Bijan to hover around 20 attempts per game. That’s plenty enough with his talent to finish as the overall RB1, and Allgeier can sit at eight carries a game while whoever else they want rotates in to handle the other five or six. Robinson is also a good pass catcher, and even if he sees only two or three targets a game, he can be efficient enough with them to make the receiving work the icing on the cake.

So what’s not to like about Bijan? I’m surprised he’s still going after Austin Ekeler, and since I’m willing to take Bijan at third overall, his price in the late first round is fantastic to me.

Q: Which player is most likely to have fantasy value this season: Zeke, Kareem Hunt, or Leonard Fournette?

A: Two of these guys would be playing very similar early down/goal line roles –Zeke and Fournette – while Kareem Hunt is the running back that offers the most in the way of running and catching. This is truly a speculation question because none of these guys are on a team yet, but I have the best feeling that Elliott can go and play the early down role on another offense better than Fournette can and well enough to top any value Hunt would have in the receiving game.

All three of these guys were abysmal in terms of efficiency (none of them eclipsed 3.8 YPC in 2022), but Zeke was way ahead of both Fournette and Hunt in production (12 touchdowns to 3 apiece) and missed tackles forced (30 in 15 games played, 22 for Hunt and 15 for Fournette). It might be the Cowboys fan in me talking, but I think Zeke has more left in the tank than the other two guys.

And if we’re splitting hairs, let’s also throw in the fact that Zeke played through injury each of the last two seasons with PCL and MCL tears. Fournette was also losing playing time to an inefficient rookie RB in Rachaad White last season, and if I had to guess who signed to a team first, I’d say it’s Zeke.

DJ Moore was involved in the blockbuster trade of the offseason, being dealt alongside multiple 1st (and multiple 2nd) round picks from the Chicago Bears in a deal to land Carolina the 1st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

The move, while exciting from an NFL fan’s point of view, makes me very hesitant from a fantasy football perspective. Moore’s downfall has never been target share, drawing in 534 targets over the last four years (118+ targets each season), but rather QB play. While he drew an extremely large target base, he never had much of an opportunity to do anything with it, registering just 309 catches over the last 4 years. At a 58% reception rate, you may turn your thoughts towards potential drops, but Moore has dropped just 5.2% of his targets in that stretch – the issue was QB quality.

In logic, moving from Carolina’s QB carousel over the past few years (Darnold, Mayfield, Newton, Bridgewater, Walker, etc.) to Justin Fields should be a positive change, but Fields has yet to establish himself as a passer. In 27 career games, Fields has completed 20+ passes in just three games and has passed for 200+ yards in just six. Is it an issue with weapons? On one hand, Fields had little to work with in 2022, but he also had Allen Robinson in 2021, who was coming off a top-10 season in the year prior.

Is it a scheme issue? That’s where the concern lies. We’ve seen several struggling QBs develop significantly as a passer the moment they get a quality WR1 (Allen, Hurts, Jackson), but in most of those instances, the scheme adjusts to cater toward the pass. If that’s the case, it’s likely Moore replicates his target count from years past and sees improved QB play, but if the scheme continues to be a run-oriented one, Moore will likely fall far short of his production from Carolina due to a lack of workload.

A lot will be told in training camp and the preseason based on the offensive scheme and rapport between Fields and Moore, but until then, we can only speculate. Without knowing what the Bears’ offensive intentions will truly be, Moore remains a relatively risky option if he continues to go at his current price (late-4th round) as a low-end WR2 option. I will likely pass on him as my WR2 until I see the likelihood for targets in Chicago, but I would be glad to land him as my WR3 option with his top-12 upside.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Rams RB Cam Akers had a very slow start to the 2022 season, finding himself in Sean McVay’s dog house after seeing 50%+ of snaps just twice in his nine games played while also missing two games due to injury. However, that misfortune turned on a dime starting in Week 13, when Sean McVay handed the keys to the backfield to Akers for the first time last year.

Cam Akers took full advantage of the opportunity, scoring 13+ PPR points in five of his last six games to finish the 2022 season. In that span (Weeks 13-18), Akers ranked 3rd among all RBs in rush attempts, 1st in total rushing yards, and tied for 1st with Austin Ekeler in rushing touchdowns. He closed the 2022 season with three straight games of 100+ yards rushing, as well. He was also tied for 3rd with Najee Harris in missed tackles forced in that span with 24. However, one stat stood out in particular above the rest in that six week span.

Akers had FULL CONTROL of the red zone and goal line carries on the Rams offense – so much so, that not a single other running back recorded a rush attempt inside the 20. Akers had 18 carries inside the 20, with six of those carries coming at the goal line (inside the 5). If Akers is able to hold onto his monopoly on those valuable touches, he absolutely has a chance to come through as a fantasy RB2 at the very least, even with just an early down/goal line role.