To Draft? Or Not to Draft? 🔮

The Vikings are throwing it back to when they – still didn’t win any Super Bowls? 🥴

What’s in store:

• Which AFC Running Back could see more targets in 2023? According to reports from the team, one of the league’s most efficient ball carriers could get more involved in the passing game.

• Turbulence ahead for two top RB draft picks? The threat of Barkley and Jacobs missing time in 2023 looms large – but will they actually hold out?

• The current TE8 on Underdog might be going earlier than he should… even after signing a brand new extension with his team.

• One of the most reliable receivers in fantasy might surprise you. Tyler shines a light on a player that might be getting overlooked thanks to a flashy new rookie addition.

• RBs Barkley, Jacobs eye training camp holdouts as community rallies in support

  • Giants RB Saquon Barkley and Raiders RB Josh Jacobs were left without contracts earlier this week, much to the dismay of running backs across the NFL. With extensions no longer a possibility for the star runners, they’ll be forced to either play on the tag in 2023 or forfeit money they would earn by playing. While training camp holdouts appear to be on the table for both players, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where significant time is missed in the regular season by either RB. In the meantime in fantasy drafts leading up to the start of the new season, neither RB should necessarily be avoided – but the selection of other high-quality players could be prioritized over them given the uncertainty around their respective availabilities.

• J.K. Dobbins: the next big receiving running back?

  • Official Ravens.com reporter Clifton Brown reports that RB J.K. Dobbins is “highly motivated” heading into the 2023 NFL season. He also reported that new Ravens OC Todd Monken plans to get Dobbins “in space” in the receiving game out of the backfield – a welcome development for the uber-efficient runner as the Ravens retool their scheme to lean more heavily on the pass. Dobbins has averaged over 5.0 YPC throughout his career, but has handled little to no work in the receiving game during his time in the league. With the potential to catch some passes out of the backfield and the role as the Ravens No. 1 runner locked down for 2023, the 24-year old Ohio State product could be in line for a very strong fantasy breakout in 2023 (he’s one of Faraz’s favorites to do so!).

• No long-term deal for Saquon or Josh Jacobs; they didn’t sign the franchise tag. No long-term deal for Pollard either, but he did sign the tag, so he’ll play - he has to report to camp because he signed.

  • Since Saquon and Jacobs are not under contract, they won’t be fined if they miss training camp. We might even see them miss some games - a lot of the NFL RBs including Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler (who we know is already disgruntled with his contract but did restructure recently) have come out in support of Jacobs and Barkley… oh yeah, and Najee also wanted to belong so he came out and said something, too.

• It’s an unfortunate situation for these guys - the moral of the story is if your kids play football, don’t let them play RB. These teams give their RBs a lot of touches, but any team that revolves around their RB in this day and age means they’re not a championship caliber team. We never say, “man, that team can play good defense and run the ball - they’re going to win the Super Bowl.” We used to, but not anymore. Teams can get away with having replacement level RBs and win a Super Bowl if they have a good QB and hopefully some good receivers.

• And if you pay a RB, you’re saying we are going to revolve our offense around this RB for the next how many years - that’s not smart. I’d rather use that money elsewhere to build a championship roster – that’s me if I’m a GM. The market just isn’t there for these RBs to get paid in today’s NFL.

• Now, should we be avoiding these guys in drafts? I don’t think so, but if I’m trying to make a decision between Saquon and an elite WR or Saquon and Kelce, it’s the WRs and Kelce every time - and that’s kind of been the case before all this. If Saquon falls to the middle or end of the 2nd, I’m drafting him. He’s going to play - but he might choose to hold out Week 1. I don’t see him holding out the entire year - same thing with Josh Jacobs.

• The reason why it’s a little more worrisome with Jacobs is because he’s young, and he can afford it way more than Saquon. I think Jacobs is still at a good price, but I am thinking twice: is he really going to give up all of those game checks? I think I’m leaning towards just grabbing him at drafts at a potentially even bigger discount because of the fear around an in-season holdout. But is there a chance that this goes all the way to Week 10 - that’s the deadline they have to sign, but if they don’t sign by then, they can’t play for the year.

• Evan Engram signed a new 3-year deal with the Jaguars, which is great for his dynasty stock – but with the addition of Calvin Ridley, I’m not so sure that Engram can duplicate his TE5 fantasy finish from 2022 in 2023.

• Take out that huge game last year against Tennessee where he put up 39 PPR points, and his per game average last year falls from 10.4 pts/game to 8.6. That would have tied with Greg Dulcich for 18th in the NFL, and it’s not that I want to hold that great performance against him, but it’s important to look at the whole season last year to get a better idea of the type of tight end he was in 2022.

• Without that monster performance, Engram eclipsed the 12 PPR point threshold just five times, never scoring more than 18 points in a game. In the 9 games where he was targeted at least 6 times, he finished as a top-12 tight end eight times. But in the 8 games where he earned less than 6 targets, he never finished inside the top-20.

• Engram’s production was bipolar for the entirety of 2022, and that was dependent on whether or not Christian Kirk was getting targets. And if you look at the target distribution, you see that in the weeks where Engram got four targets or less, Kirk had 9 or more.

  • Week 1: Engram 4 targets, Kirk 12

  • Week 3: Engram 3 targets, Kirk 9

  • Week 4: Engram 1 target, Kirk 9

  • Week 9: Engram 2 targets, Kirk 9

  • Week 10: Engram 4 targets, Kirk 12

  • Week 12: Engram 1 target, Kirk 9

• • Week 2: Engram 8 targets, Kirk 6

  • Week 6: Engram 6 targets, Kirk 5

  • Week 7: Engram 7 targets, Kirk 10

  • Week 8: Engram 6 targets, Kirk 7

  • Week 14, the big game against Tenneseee: Engram 15 targets, Kirk 7

  • Week 15: Engram 10 targets, Kirk 10 targets

• The bottom line is that if anyone is going to lose out on this offense because a teammate is having themselves a day, it’ll be Engram before it’s Kirk. And now that Kirk will playing second fiddle to Calvin Ridley, Engram could find himself without a slice of the target share pie even more often than he did in 2022.

• Oh, and it’s no exaggeration when we say that when Engram isn’t scoring – he actually becomes a non-factor when the target share isn’t there. He had as many finishes outside the top-24 as Tyler Higbee (7).

• If the disappearing act for Engram was happening with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones competing for targets, imagine the fluctuation with Calvin Ridley heavily integrated in the Jags offense. There’s just way too much instability to trust Engram right now, especially at his TE8 price off the board.

Allen has always, and will always be one of those players that simply find their way onto my team nearly every season. That’s not from personal bias or anything – that’s from Allen continuously providing amazing draft-day value and lineup flexibility each and every season.

Many will point to the narrative that Allen is “injury prone” after suffering a hamstring injury that would cost him 7 games in 2022, but that narrative simply doesn’t fit.

Allen had played 16 games in four of the previous five seasons before 2022 with the lone season that he failed to hit that mark, seeing him play in 14 games and only sitting the final two due to the Chargers being out of playoff contention. His early-career injuries were unpredictable and unpreventable (broken collarbone, lacerated kidney, ACL tear), showing no trend of injuries or repeated concerns.

With Allen, you know what you’re getting each and every week: you’re getting elite consistency. You’re not going to frequently get a week-winning performance but you will never get a week-losing one either. In Allen’s last 38 healthy games, he put up 10+ points in 37 of them. That’s a double-digit floor dating back to the middle of 2019 – that’s unparalleled consistency at the WR position.

He’s a perfect WR on your roster as he lets you go for a bit riskier options elsewhere in your lineup (RB, FLEX) but still have a stable floor to compete each week. That flexibility, both weekly and yearly, makes it significantly easier to build a championship-contending roster.

Am I worried about Williams and Johnston for Allen? Not very much, especially with Allen dominating the short-to-intermediate range as Herbert’s go-to guy.

With Kellen Moore at OC now, the upside is incredible for Allen, especially at his price as a likely 4th rounder and mid-WR2 option. At that price, I am all-in on Allen as my WR2 with realistic WR1 upside.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Despite being overshadowed by the big play ability of teammate A.J. Brown (1,496 yards, 17.0 yds/rec, 11 TDs), Eagles WR Devonta Smith quietly led all Philly pass catchers in receptions in 2022 with 95. His 1,196 receiving yards also ranked 8th in the NFL among receivers with 100+ targets.

Perhaps even more eye-popping was the consistency with which Smith was demanding targets in 2022, especially at the end of the year. From Week 10 onward, Smith registered at least 8 targets in every single game to close the season – even with A.J. Brown logging two 10-target games and a 16-target game, as well, in that span.