Draft THESE RBs After Round 10 📝

The Hall of Fame Game is just a sugar high, people. Reality should be setting in that there’s still a lot of backup-level football to be played before we see the real thing. Until then… 🍻

What’s in store:

• Purdy good chance Purdy starts for the 49ers in Week 1! See what we did there? Keep scrolling if you’re tired of our jokes.

• Drafting after round 10 doesn’t have to be boring. I mean, it’s the range where leagues are won, but never lost. Faraz has some late-round RB targets for you.

• The fantasy football equivalent of a vanilla ice cream cone. Nobody’s gonna be excited about drafting him, but this player is as solid as any TE right now.

• Can Bijan Robinson be THAT GUY in year 1? You’ll have to pay up to find out, but Tyler is perfectly ok with that.

• Brock Purdy making strong progress in recovery from UCL injury, should be ready to go for Week 1

  • As has been the case throughout the offseason, Purdy remains promisingly on schedule to draw the start for the 49ers come Week 1 of 2023. Purdy reported “minimal soreness” following his throwing sessions this week, indicating that he felt the same after those as he did last year when he was healthy. Not only is this good news for Purdy and his fantasy managers, but it’s also fantastic news for the entire 49ers offense as a whole. Both Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle were at their best with the rookie under center last year, with the latter hauling in seven touchdowns in the final four weeks of the regular season. It’s not likely that Sam Darnold nor Trey Lance make a late-offseason push for the starting job over Purdy, considering he was undefeated last year in games he started and finished, but Darnold has been performing better in camp according to multiple reports and could step into opportunity in 2023 should Purdy struggle.

• Hold it just one minute on Sam Howell?

  • Commanders HC Ron Rivera admitted that second year signal caller Sam Howell is having a strong camp, but left the door open on Jacoby Brissett potentially winning the starting job when he said not to “sleep on Jacoby Brissett”. Ron Rivera should be fired for those comments because it’s Sam Howell SZN, but the truth remains that Brissett could see playing time this year in a few different ways, and that Howell hasn’t locked down his position as the QB1 just yet. Regardless of which quarterback is starting this year, the Commanders receivers figure to be in the best hands they’ve been in in years, with Howell showing promise in his lone start last year against the Cowboys and Jacoby Brissett proving in 2022 that he can lead not just a fantasy-relevant offense, but a fantasy-friendly offense, as well. Howell brings a higher ceiling as a fantasy QB than Brissett by virtue of his youth and rushing ability, but Brissett would be a quality QB2 if he would end up drawing starts in Washington this season.

• Wait a minute – WHAT, Doug Pederson? 🤯

  • A report from Kevin Patra has swirled in the last 24 hours about Doug Pederson’s comments regarding RB Travis Etienne’s 2023 rushing volume. Pederson said that Etienne could see his rushing totals climb up into the 1600-1700 yard range for 2023 – a bold statement considering the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round and openly announced that they didn’t want Etienne to have close to 75% of snaps this season. There’s no question about the talent that Etienne has – he was 3rd in the NFL last year in yards per attempt – but on an offense that’s likely to lean heavily on the passing game via the arm of Trevor Lawrence and the hands of plenty of more than capable pass catchers, it’s tough to project enough volume for Etienne for him to make good on Pederson’s lofty goal.

• De’Von Achane - 10th round

  • Achane is currently the best Dolphins RB, and could see 15 touches/game on an explosive offense. He fits Mike McDaniels’ system perfectly - best case scenario would be a 1-2 punch between Achane and a bigger back like Jeff Wilson.

  Tyler Allgeier - 11th round

  • Allgeier might not have much standalone value, but he proved that he can be very effective last year. If Bijan were to go down, Allgeier should step in and handle a bigger workload than he did last year in a great rushing environment. Viewing him as a handcuff.

• Kendre Miller - 12th round

  • Miller is off the PUP and is now participating in camp. He’s a talented back who can potentially beat out Jamaal Williams to be Alvin Kamara’s complement in the run game. It could be a year early, but I like taking shots on talent at cheap prices, especially given a potential Kamara suspension early in the year. What if Miller goes crazy in those first few weeks?

  Tank Bigsby - 13th round

  • It seems like Bigsby will be involved right away as a complement to Travis Etienne, but standalone value is still a question right now. I’d view him as a talented handcuff+ on an up and coming offense.

  Roschon Johnson - 14th round

  • The Bears backfield is wide open, and Johnson is the cheapest option in drafts. It seems like his primary competition is D’onta Foreman, who’s no slouch, but Johnson was one of the most efficient RBs in all of college football over the last two seasons.

• Has anybody heard a word about this guy since he signed in Houston? Schultz might be the most vanilla fantasy pick there is right now, but style points haven’t been his MO his entire career and that’s not about to change now.

• His production has come in an offense where he was consistently the safety valve for Dak Prescott, overshadowed by better receiving options in Ceedee Lamb and Amari Cooper over the past two years. Despite that, he’s put up an average of 17% target share and 17% air yards share in that span, proving that he can compete for targets even with quality competition.

• Sure, Schultz has never been an explosive after the catch tight end… he put up the 7th-lowest yards after the catch per reception in 2022. But this is Dalton Schultz we’re talking about, Mr. Vanilla himself. With that nickname, of course he’s going to be the tight end to get it done in fantasy with targets.

• The offense won’t be nearly as good in Houston as it was in Dallas –but he’s moving from an environment with plenty of competition to an offense with little to no competition at all. And Schultz’s body of work in the target share department bears consideration: according to FantasyLife’s Dwain MacFarland, the target share and air yards share that he’s accumulated over the past two seasons is consistent with overall TE7-TE9 finishes over the last 12 years.

• If you don’t want to take a TE early in your draft, but you also don’t want to the mid-round price tag of other guys in questionable situations (ala David Njoku and Chig Okonkwo), Dalton Schultz at the TE14 price tag is extremely affordable and present the chance to be highly productive – you just won’t have the rest of your league oohing and ahhing on draft day.

Robinson was undoubtedly the top RB prospect coming out of the draft since Saquon Barkley and the draft capital the Falcons were willing to invest (8th overall pick) reflects that.

Everything suggests Robinson will be a top-10 option for fantasy, even as a rookie, in 2023. Atlanta’s offensive make-up, both in terms of personnel (solid O-Line) and play-calling (55.3% rushing plays in 2022, 2nd-highest) suggest a heavy dose of Robinson will be the case as a rookie, likely eclipsing the 300-touch mark with ease.

What particularly stands out with Robinson is the draft capital Atlanta was willing to invest in him, especially with numerous other positions of need. Robinson joins a class of just 10 RBs in the past decade to be selected inside the top-25 of the NFL Draft – 9 of them went on to play as rookies (Etienne missed his rookie year to injury) and nearly all were extremely successful. All but one finished as an RB2 or better, 78% of them (and all RBs selected inside the top 10 picks) finished inside the top 10 in PPR scoring, and a third finished as top-3 RBs. History suggests the Falcons will use Robinson early, often, and use him productively.

Being drafted that high indicates he’ll be used often, but it also raises his draft price for fantasy. He’s unanimously the 1.01 in dynasty/rookie drafts, but his re-draft price tag (1.07 on ADP) as a top-5 RB taken on both ECR and ADP is commanding. There’s always the risk of uncertainty with rookies (as there is no proven production/utilization in the NFL), so it ultimately comes down to how comfortable you are in a risk/reward option that high.

I personally will be investing a top-6 pick in him, but there’s easily a case against that – either way, it seems very likely that he’ll walk away from his rookie season either as a league-winner or a league-loser for fantasy (with little in-between), finishing as a top-5 RB as a rookie or heavily disappointing with a finish outside the top-12.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Want to know just how important RB Derrick Henry is to the Titans offense moving the ball anywhere? One stat from the 2022 season will probably surprise you. Despite being widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best pure runners in the NFL, Henry was forced to show off his chops in the receiving game last year during a rough season for the Tennessee offense.

That amounted to Derrick Henry LEADING THE LEAGUE in yards per reception among 30 RBs with 35+ targets on the year. His 12.1 yards per reception was more than a full 2 yards higher than the next player on the list (Tony Pollard, 9.5 yds/reception). That production in the receiving game came on top of 1500+ yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground!

Henry continues to spit in the face of Father Time heading into 2023, but at some point, even the King must fall. Whether that happens this year remains to be seen, but fantasy managers should not expect passing game efficiency or volume of that nature to continue moving forward. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins and Tyjae Spears should return Henry to his regularly scheduled programming of bulldozing linebackers and road-grading defensive backs in the run game, while capping his receiving volume to relatively insignificant levels.