Is Etienne the Odd Man Out in JAX? 🐆

Raise your hand if you’ve already joined way too many leagues this year. 🙋‍♂️

Raise it again if you’re still not done joining leagues this year. 🙋‍♂️

What’s in store:

• Zack Moss goes down, complicating the Colts backfield even further 😱 Who will be the starting RB in Indy come Week 1?

• Like to shoot for upside? So do we. Faraz gives us two young stars that could cash in on MASSIVE upside in 2023.

• Could Etienne get lost in the noise of the Jags receiving corps? He’ll face an uphill battle to claim his share of the target share pie.

• Is Aaron Jones as safe a pick in 2023 as he’s been recently? Tyler weighs in on the Packers backfield.

• Broncos WR Tim Patrick feared to have torn achilles in practice

  • If confirmed, it would be the second season-ending injury for Patrick in the past two years. The Broncos WR hasn’t seen the field in the regular season since 2021, and has yet to take a snap with QB Russell Wilson under center. Patrick has yet to produce a Top-36 season as a WR in his career, and the prospect of that happening in the future is relatively bleak given the back-to-back major injuries he’s sustained in the past 14 months. With him presumably sidelined for 2023, the door opens for Marvin Mims to sneak into fantasy relevance in his rookie year under HC Sean Payton. Mims himself has been dealing with a hamstring injury throughout camp, but the expectation is that he should be able to get right to slot in as the Broncos’ WR3 come Week 1.

• “No timetable” on a potential Dalvin Cook signing in New York

  • After multiple reports suggesting that a signing was imminent between Cook and the Jets, the free agent RB left New York without a deal and without notable momentum towards one. With multiple injuries popping up across the league landscape at the RB position – and even more contract disputes coming to light – Cook may want to keep his options open for the time being as training camp pushes on. The most realistic expectation still remains that Cook signs with the Jets at some point.

• Colts RB Zack Moss suffers broken arm, adding even more intrigue to colts backfield

  • The Jonathan Taylor drama continues to grow after picking up massive traction over the weekend, with backup RB Zack Moss going down for a significant amount of time due to a broken arm. Taylor, who recently requested a trade from the Colts, finds himself deadlocked in a battle with Jim Irsay, who has publicly stated that the Colts will not honor his trade request, while simultaneously refusing to extend the star RB. Reports also indicate that the Colts are mulling placing Taylor on the NFI list, which would put Taylor – in layman’s terms – between a rock and a hard place for the 2023 season. With the Colts RB depth suddenly depleted, the next backs up are Deon Jackson and rookie 5th-rounder Evan Hull. A committee could be formed between the two of them should Taylor miss time this season and Zack Moss not be right to open the new year.

• Christian Watson - WR21 - 41.4

  • Now, Christian Watson is no where near the type of prospect that Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson were, and going into this year, it’s likely that Olave and Garrett Wilson both have the potential to be superstar alpha WRs in the NFL… and I don’t think Christian Watson is on that level. But I do think we have to pay attention to what we he does well, and the type of season he had when he got healthy last year.

  • We don’t know what Jordan Love is yet, but we do know that Aaron Rodgers didn’t necessarily play his best football last year - he actually wasn’t efficient throwing the ball deep - despite that, Christian Watson went on to put up WR1 numbers once he got back from his injuries, and his 2.26 yards/route run mark last year, only behind Chris Olave, is something to we have to pay attention to, because it’s a huge indicator of future success.

  • Will he have a TD regression? Yes, he will. He can’t sustain the TD rate he had last year, but the target share during that span was there. And earning targets is a skill by the way… at the very least, we know that the big play ability is definitely there. And thats all over the field - deep, intermediate and after the catch, red zone.

  • And no – I’m not buying the Romeo Doubs hype, by the way, so I think if I miss out on some of the high-end WRs early on, Christian Watson is an upside pick in the 4th round that I’d consider to give me a chance at a high-end WR2. But also understand that his floor is likely in the volatile WR3 range. He’s being drafted kind of in the middle of his range of outcomes as the WR20 right now.

• Devon Achane - RB38, 117.6

  • As of right now, the best RB on the Dolphins is Devon Achane. He’s not going to be a goal line back, but there is a lot of upside here in Mike McDaniels’ outside zone scheme… think Raheem Mostert on the 49ers when he would pop those long runs again and again. Achane can do that and more.

  • It also seems like they’re using him as a receiver as well; he got the 3rd round draft capital, but he’s not the biggest back. He did bulk up a bit by the time he got to training camp - he got up to 192 - so that’s good. He’s on a good offense with other playmakers that you have to account for, and because of that he has a higher chance to be more efficient than what he probably would’ve already been.

  • 31-year old Raheem Mostert isn’t holding him back, and neither is Jeff Wilson, although I do think Wilson will be the goal line back - obviously assuming Dalvin Cook doesn’t sign in Miami. If Cook does, the touches simply won’t be there for Achane, but if he doesn’t, Achane can easily see 15 touches/game on this offense, with some of that coming in the receiving game - and that’s really all this guy needs to be an every-week RB2.

  • He’s being drafted as the RB39 - that’s just too low. The landing spot was just perfect for him and his skillset. And all the hype around him in OTAs helps, too… it seems like he’s going to be very involved in the offense.

• Not a lot of people realize it, but Travis Etienne was just the RB24 in PPR points per game last year – and that was with the lead role in the backfield locked down in Week 7.

• Sure, Etienne was efficient on the ground – his 4.9 yards per carry from week 7 on was 5th among RBs that played 50% of snaps – but he finished as just the RB16 in fantasy points scored in that span, as well. That was behind James Conner, who played in just 8 games after Week 7 – Etienne played all 11 games, and James Conner is going in the 7th round of drafts this year! Travis Etienne is going in the fourth!

• So yes, the yardage was there on the ground for Etienne, but his stats are inflated too by three games – Weeks 7, 8, and 9 – where he scored four of his five touchdowns on the year. He scored ONE touchdown in the last eight games of the year, and he saw just 26 targets in that span as well. That’s consistently mediocre production, and with reports that Tank Bigsby – the guy they brought in to be the early down bruiser – is suddenly wowing Jags coaches with his receiving ability, is Etienne really going to be in line 50 catches, or even 40?

• Trevor Lawrence had the 7th-most regular season attempts last year and Etienne still earned just 43 targets on the year – just two and a half per game. How is Etienne supposed to get enough volume in the receiving game to buoy lackluster rushing production in this offense, when he couldn’t even do it with minimal competition last year?

• The Jags went ahead and added Calvin Ridley, who could see 100 targets, too! I get that Etienne was a great talent coming out of the draft, but the Jags don’t seem to want to commit to giving him that workhorse volume – and that sentiment has been echoed not only in words, but also by actions. They came out and said they don’t want Etienne getting 75% of snaps anymore, and they drafted a good running back early in Tank Bigsby.

• It blows me away how Etienne is still the RB14 on Underdog – he could be an RB3.

Even after four consecutive seasons as a top-12 fantasy RB and a top-10 finish in 2022, there may have never been more questions surrounding Aaron Jones’ fantasy prospects as there are heading into 2022.

Jones now enters life without Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, and while Rodgers’ wasn’t an MVP-caliber QB in 2022 (like years prior), the move away from the veteran introduces major question marks around the Packers' offense, especially with a young QB in Jordan Love getting just his second career start in Week 1 and Jones’ lack of history without Rodgers at QB (7 career GP without Rodgers, 6 during Jones’ rookie season).

We will likely see an increase in utilization for Jones in the receiving game with a younger QB at the helm, improving on Jones’ already impressive 72 targets in 2022 (8th among RBs).

While I anticipate the offense moving towards a more balanced play-calling style, I wouldn’t expect a massive increase in Jones’ rushing opportunities. Jones has only managed a career-high of 236 carries in a season (2019) and doesn’t have the typical make-up of a traditional workhorse RB. Expect Jones to get the early-down and receiving work in the backfield with Dillon seeing a significant uptick in utilization, especially as a change-of-pace back in Love’s first season as a starter.

Now by no means is that saying Jones will struggle, or even that he will see a reduced workload from 2022, (quite the opposite) – just temper expectations on what the share of the backfield will be between Jones and Dillon.

I’m still targeting Jones at his current early-to-mid 3rd-round projected price (RB14, RB16 on ECR and ADP). The upside is certainly there for Jones to replicate his last several seasons of RB1 success if Love can develop as a serviceable QB in the NFL, but the question marks that revolve around the uncertainty with Love push Jones from being selected as an RB1 on draft day.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

The Steelers WR room enters 2023 with little certainty, but contrasts that with plenty of optimism for the new year ahead. The Steelers’ two primary receivers, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, are currently coming off the board in the 5th and 7th rounds, respectively – and that gap, while small, is warranted.

From Weeks 4-18 in 2022 (all games where Kenny Pickett started the game), and excluding Week 14 when Pickett left the game having attempted just one pass, Diontae Johnson out-targeted George Pickens 101-68, earned 10 more red zone targets (24-14), and three more end zone targets (10-7). That’s all fine and dandy, but Diontae Johnson didn’t score last season, while Pickens found pay dirt four times last year. What gives?

Well, it doesn’t help as an NFL receiver to have all of the quarterbacks that start for your team in a year combine for just 11 touchdowns – especially when three of them go to your team’s RB. That’s what happened to Johnson, who found himself hyper-targeted but without any touchdowns to show for it. Assuming Kenny Pickett takes a step forward in year 2, Johnson should be able to capitalize on another year of high receiving volume and return to his regularly scheduled production in 2023.