Fantasy Football Preseason Notebook: Week 2 📓

The regular season is so close, but so far away at the same time. Anyone else noticing how time has really slowed down these past few weeks?

What’s in store:

• Jaxon Smith Njigba could start 2023 on the wrong foot – or, hand. His wrist injury is expected to sideline him for a not-insignificant amount of time.

• Faraz’s Preseason Week 2 Notebook! See all of the most important takeaways from this past weekend’s action.

• Top Preseason Performers: Week 2. See which players turned heads and should be paid attention to.

• Is Michael Pittman Jr. doomed to fail in the Colts offense? With Anthony Richardson at QB, it’s not out of the range of outcomes.

• ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba will undergo wrist surgery, putting Week 1 status in question

  • It appears that the wrist injury will likely prevent JSN from making his true professional debut in Week 1. This came completely out of left field following his impressive performance against the Cowboys, as there were no indicators of any concern even through Tuesday morning. With JSN sidelined, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will assume their normal positions as the top receivers in the offense and should see a slight bump until he returns. As for JSN, we can expect to see his ADP drop slightly with the prospect of him missing more than just Week 1 looming.

• Terry McLaurin suffers toe injury, X-Rays come back negative

  • Fantasy managers had a scare in the final preseason game of Week 2 on Monday night, seeing Terry McLaurin go down with a toe injury and not return. The injury doesn’t appear to be that serious, but turf toe can be finicky if it’s not rested properly. That being said, NFL Network’s Ian Rapaport did state that there’s “optimism” for McLaurin to be ready by the time Week 1 rolls around. However, until then, we can expect McLaurin to miss the final week of the preseason and potentially most of the practices leading up to the Commanders season debut against the Cardinals. The largest beneficiary if he would miss any time is clearly Jahan Dotson, who was hyper targeted by QB Sam Howell in McLaurin’s absence on Monday night.

• The Dolphins are rumored to explore trade options for disgruntled Colts RB Jonathan Taylor

  • The Dolphins are one of just a handful of realistic destinations for Taylor at this point, but they could be the best. Their offense features an excellent receiving corps and a QB that can deliver the ball to them, but with just Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and an injured Devon Achane in the backfield, Miami could stand to improve at RB if they want to make a championship push this year. Mike McDaniel’s outside zone scheme would be an excellent landing spot, but in today’s RB market, it’s unlikely that the Dolphins or any team would be willing to shell out the draft capital to meet Indy’s asking price.

• RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

  • He played on 70% of snaps with the starters. In addition, his 60% route participation and 5 opportunities on his 12 snaps justifies his first round price tag.

• TE Darren Waller, New York Giants

  • His 80% route participation and 40% targets per route run with the starters screams major upside. If he stays healthy, he’s smashing.

• RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

  • He played an every-down role, and was on the field for 100% of snaps with the starters. He was an early down RB last year, and when you consider Devin Singletary’s usage last week, there’s a chance Pierce has a new passing down role come Week 1. More reason to take shots at Pierce at his price.

• RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills

  • He played on 88% of snaps and ran a route on 67% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks this weekend. Probably one of the best values in fantasy football drafts right now. Let everyone else believe that this usage will decline heavily because Damien Harris didn’t play.

• WR Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs

  • He ran the same amount of routes as Travis Kelce with the Chiefs starters, and played only behind MVS. He even got usage in 2 WR sets, which is a great sign that he’ll be getting solid playing time even when Kadarius Toney is back.

• RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

  • Javonte Williams defies the odds and comes back to play significant role in a preseason game. Him and Perine split time 50/50, but this was Williams’ first game back. Perine’s playing the receiving back role, but Javonte saw 5 targets on 8 routes ran, with 8 opportunities total on 13 snaps with the starters.

• RB Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins

  • He didn’t take a snap with the starters for a second straight week, is still relatively low on the depth chart, and is now dealing with a shoulder injury. If he has a fantasy impact, it might be later in the season.

• TE Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

  • Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman continue to split routes run with the first team. It doesn’t look like Dulcich is worth betting on at his ADP as it stands.

• TE Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers

  • He continues to play 100% of snaps with the starters, and once again ran a route on 100% of Jordan Love’s drop backs. He led the starters with 3 targets on 9 routes run. Easy Top-12 TE candidate. Don’t sleep on the other rookie Jayden Reed, who is the Packers’ primary slot WR.

1. QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

19/25, 188 yds, 2 TD, 3 Att, 17 yds, 17.22 PPR

• Howell put together easily the top performance of any player this week against the Ravens, playing close to perfect football while distributing the ball to all of his weapons.

• Of particular note was his high target rate to his running backs, with both Antonio Gibson AND Brian Robinson catching multiple passes from Howell in the first half. Howell also found Gibson for a touchdown just before halftime.

• Two weeks pf promising gameplay has Howell looking more than capable of supporting the Commanders offense in 2023, which could feature two starting lineup-worth wide receivers and more than one running back earning targets.

2. WR Austin Watkins, Cleveland Browns

14 Targets, 7 Rec, 139 yds, 1 TD, 26.9 PPR

• He’s not likely to challenge any of the Browns starting receivers for significant play time in 2023, but when you garner double-digit targets and have almost 140 yards receiving, you’re a top performer.

• Watkins consistently took his receptions for 15+ yard gains and put up the most receiving yards of any receiver in Week 2. He might not be the most fantasy-relevant player to have a big day, but credit where credit is due.

3. RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

10 Carries, 23 yards, 1 TD, 3/3 Receptions, 36 yards, 14.9 PPR

• Miller returned to action in short order and had himself a very promising night, getting plenty of run in the receiving game and showing why he’s a popular fantasy pick to take control of the Saints backfield while Kamara is out.

• 2.3 yards per carry isn’t all that inspiring, but the understanding with Miller has been that his value would come in the receiving game – and he proved that he can meet that expectation with an excellent over the top grab down the sideline for a big gain.

• Miller is so much more dynamic than Jamaal Williams, and should be drafted over him in every scenario. He could have a shot at season-long value if he can take advantage of the increased workload early on.

4. WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

9 Targets, 8 Rec, 96 yds, 17.6 PPR

• Rice didn’t score, but he demonstrated his playmaking ability on two plays of 25+ yards and earned a high target share – two things that will certainly help him see the field in the regular season.

• His production also came exclusively in the first half, and any additional time in the game would have seen him eclipse 100 yards on the day. With the Chiefs WR room standing on some promising, but unproven legs, Rice could reasonably push for considerable targets if anybody would happen to go down to injury (*cough cough* Kadarius Toney *cough*).

5. WR Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants

5 Targets, 4 Rec, 35 yds, 1 TD, 13.5 PPR

• Hyatt is part of a very crowded New York WR room, but he has the talent to make some headway into fantasy relevance if he can continue to string together big plays like the one he had this past weekend.

• His touchdown catch was the highlight of the game, but constituted all but two of his receiving yards on the day (33 yards). His other catches on the day went for -3, 0, and 5 yards.

• Hyatt will have to do more in the receiving game besides take the top off the defense to contribute on a regular basis, but there’s no reason to believe that can’t improve. He’s a fine dynasty stash, but will likely struggle to be worth starting in most fantasy lineups.

Pittman had pretty much identical seasons in terms of overall production in 2021 and 2022, finishing as the WR17 in points and as the WR14 in Consistency Rating in 2021 while finishing 20th in points and 13th in CR in 2022.

The only notable change in his production was going from a balanced volume-to-efficiency source with Carson Wentz at QB in 2021 (88 catches, 1082 yards, 6 TDs) to a predominantly volume-based WR under Matt Ryan (141 targets, 99 catches, 925 yards, 4 TDs).

Traditionally, that would be an overwhelmingly positive change, transitioning to a safer source of production in volume, but with the Colts’ major change at QB, going from a typical passing QB in Matt Ryan to a rushing/dual-threat rookie in Anthony Richardson, all security goes out the window for Pittman.

There’s not a more difficult team to forecast for fantasy in 2023 than Indianapolis due to the lack of clarity at QB. With Richardson starting in Week 1, Pittman holds WR3 value at best with some upside but zero security. This likely won’t be a high-volume passing offense, especially in the early going.

Currently going as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 (WR24 on ADP, WR28 on ECR) in the mid-6th round, I am likely favoring other options with just as much upside but far greater security.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

After a weeks-long stalemate between Jonathan Taylor and Colts owner Jim Irsay, the disgruntled running back has been allowed to seek a trade. The asking price for the Colts – a first round pick or a combination of picks equal in value – is unlikely to be met, but that hasn’t stopped the fantasy community from speculating about potential landing spots for the All-Pro RB. Among those teams mentioned in conversations has been the Miami Dolphins – and they might be the best landing spot for Taylor in 2023.

Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel notably runs a heavy outside zone offensive scheme in Miami. Why does that matter, you may ask?

While Taylor’s numbers from 2022 are deflated as a result of him dealing with injuries and only starting 11 games last year, his 2021 numbers paint a much better picture of what he can achieve in a zone run scheme. That picture is an incredible one, as it just so happens that Jonathan Taylor dominated in the Colts’ zone run scheme in 2021.

On zone runs, Jonathan Taylor was 3rd out of 50 RBs in 2021 with 100+ carries in yards per carry (5.74) – and that was on 332 total carries! The two players ahead of him, Rashaad Penny and D’Ernest Johnson, both had less than 120 total carries on the season. Taylor was easily the best RB in 2021 on zone runs, and stepping into a similar scheme with Mike McDaniel at the helm in Miami would be a dream combination in Miami.