Fire up Christian Watson in Week 7! 🧀

Make sure to offer your fellow Calvin Ridley managers a cup of coffee to help them through their Friday after a rough Thursday night 🙂.

What’s in store:

• The coin flip for Jimmy Garoppolo’s health this week came up tails: he’s out. At this point, it’s hard to trust that he’ll be available on a consistent enough basis.

• It’s Christian Watson’s time to shine against Denver. 🧀 He should be back and at full health coming off the Packers’ Week 6 bye.

• Temper expectations for Steelers WRs. The Rams have been stingy on the outside all season long.

• The results are in: Quentin Johnston’s not that guy, pal (yet). What are you even doing if he’s still on your roster?

• Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo ruled out for Sunday’s matchup vs Bears with back injury

  • Time to put Jakobi Meyers back on the shelf for this week. Garoppolo was already trending in the wrong direction for the Raiders’ Sunday afternoon tilt with the Bears, so him being ruled out this early in the week comes as no surprise. That leaves backups Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell to duke things out to be the starter this week, but either option will leave the Raiders’ receiving weapons with a lower ceiling than they would normally have with Jimmy G under center. The matchup against the Bears is actually pretty favorable for Davante Adams and co., and Brian Hoyer looked nothing short of serviceable in his limited action last week at the end of the game. Adams will be a mid-to-low WR1 start this week, while Meyers looks to fit the description of a low-WR2 with upside.

• Eagles WR Devonta Smith trending in the right direction for Week 7 after missing practice Wednesday

  • He’s been especially quiet for the past four games, but an appearance on the injury report Wednesday wasn’t exactly the noise fantasy managers were looking for him to make going into Week 7. Luckily, it looks like Smith should be fine after logging a limited practice on Thursday ahead of Philly’s high-profile matchup against the Dolphins on SNF. After averaging 20.4 PPR points per game through weeks 1 and 2, Smith has crashed hard in fantasy land all the way down to 8 points per game over his past four. That has coincided with A.J. Brown’s four-game streak of over 125 receiving yards in each contest, but things have yet to swing back Smith’s way in the game log. He did register a season-high 11 targets against the Jets this past Sunday, which offers a glimmer of light at the end of an otherwise dark tunnel. He’ll be a solid WR2 play in what could be a shootout for the ages this Sunday night.

• Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs “trending to play” in Week 7 vs Ravens, per Ian Rapaport

  • There would be reason to be excited about this opportunity for Gibbs if we didn’t already know that Craig Reynolds is going to be mixing in for opportunities - even with David Montgomery out. Gibbs has missed the past two weeks since going down with a hamstring injury in Week 4, and the fantasy returns have been modest at best to this point for the former 12th-overall pick. Given his workload issues (he’s seen 8+ carries in just one game so far this year) and exclusively empty yardage (no touchdowns in his four starts), he doesn’t project to have much upside in Week 7 barring a drastic change for the better in the number of looks he gets. Of course, if you’ve drafted Gibbs high and have been left out to dry with his injury, there’s nothing wrong with starting him as an RB2 and hoping for the best - but if there are more secure options available, it might not be a bad idea to fire them up over him. The bottom line is that Gibbs is far from a must-start at this point, and there are likely better options available for most teams caught up in the storm.

• WRs Diontae Johnson & George Pickens have a tough matchup

  • You wanna talk about a wide receiver room that’s just going to be all over the place on Sunday? That’s Pittsburgh. Normally I’d be all about starting Diontae Johnson because he’s a target earner, but they’ve got a really tough matchup against the Rams this week - and if you told me that a secondary that was headlined by Ahkello Witherspoon and Derion Kendrick would be allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers this season, I would have said “in what world?!” But that’s the reality of the situation here, and with Diontae Johnson coming back this week, he and Pickens are going to end up eating into each other’s workload.

  • The Rams have been vulnerable in the slot this season, though, but there’s no reason to think that Allen Robinson is suddenly going to have his big day in a game where I don’t really see the Steelers lighting up the scoreboard. I’m not trusting any Steelers receiver in my lineup, but I will start Johnson as a WR3/flex anyway if I’ve been holding him on IR.

  • In one game this season, Johnson had 6 targets on 23 routes run, good for a 26% targets per route run. He was on his way to double digit targets before the injury, and in a crowded receiving group that’s also getting Pat Freiermuth back, Johnson’s the only receiver with real double-digit target upside in the offense. Still, I’m tempering expectations for both Steelers perimeter receivers against the Rams.

• WR Wan’Dale Robinson could be a great one-week replacement

  • He’s probably not going to be in many lineups, but there are enough injuries and players on bye going around that people might have to make a decision at their flex or WR3 - and Wan’Dale Robinson might be the answer. I mean, he’s only played 50% or more of snaps in three games this season, but what I’ve seen from him has been more encouraging - and honestly more intriguing - than anything else I’ve seen from any other Giants pass catcher not named Darren Waller.

  • Over the past two weeks, he’s earned a 24% target share - that’s light years ahead of Darius Slayton’s 15% in this offense, and makes Robinson the No. 2 receiver behind Darren Waller in the target share department, who’s at 31%. In a good matchup in a game that should be relatively competitive against the Commanders, I think seven or eight targets is a real possibility for Robinson - and Washington’s allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to slot receivers over the past four weeks.

  • Robinson has been a slot ace and just put up his highest route participation this year, and the eye test tells me he’s the most dynamic receiver in the Giants room. He’s not a priority start for me, but he's a quality replacement for missing fantasy stars in a dark Week 7.

• WR Christian Watson, Packers

  • Not sure there’s a matchup to be more excited about this week than this one. The Packers are coming off a bye and that means Watson’s gonna be 100% coming into this game, and the Broncos are allowing the 8th-most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers over the past four weeks and the 7th-most on the season.

  • There shouldn’t be any more questions about Watson’s hamstring injury lingering from earlier because of the bye, and before last week Watson was ramped up from 48% of snaps in Week 4 to 85% in Week 5. I’m expecting that number to hit the 90% mark or higher against the Broncos, and then you also consider the fact that he earned a 25% target share in his second game this year, and you’re looking at a wide receiver with nuclear upside.

  • Anyone who’s waited out Watson’s return should be swimming in fantasy points in no time, and it’s not just this matchup that we have to look forward to - he’s got matchups with Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and the Chargers in three of the next four weeks.

Plenty of rookies from this year’s 2023 draft class haven’t exactly been utilized in the way many fantasy mangers had hoped coming into the season - names like Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba come to mind. But there’s been perhaps no bigger disappointment through the first third of the season than Chargers WR Quentin Johnston who, despite a pass-first offense and injuries to players ahead of him, hasn’t been able to put anything of note together in his first few games in the NFL.

Not only has Johnston been unable to get onto the field on a consistent basis: he’s also been downright bad even when he does get some snaps. His 8% target share and 9% targets per route run are number barely even worth mentioning in a fantasy newsletter, and he’s been utterly useless in fantasy lineups and a total bench clogger so far in 2023 - he’s averaging just 2 PPR points per game on an offense that features this year’s overall QB1 in points per game.

That’s resulted in his ownership plummeting to just 41% across Sleeper leagues, 37% on NFL fantasy, 35% in ESPN Leagues, and 22% on Yahoo! leagues. At this point, anyone holding Johnston is clutching their pearls in hopes of things turning around for Johnston as the season wears on - but what we’ve seen so far suggests that even if he does see an uptick in usage, you might be better off chasing any potential value on the waiver wire later on than sacrificing a valuable roster spot now.