Five losers from free agency wave 1

The most exciting part of free agency might be over, but there are still plenty of big name players yet to have their fates decided – including Tee Higgins and Mike Williams 👀. Stay tuned!

What’s in store:

• Justin Fields lands in Pittsburgh to back up Russell Wilson. You could probably put the work backup in quotation marks, but Wilson appears to remain the Steeler’s starter at this point in time.

• Alexander Mattison signs with the Raiders. R.I.P. to Zamir White’s very short-lived stint as Vegas’ prospective workhorse running back.

• Michael Gallup gallops to Carolina for a visit. The former Cowboys receiver is on the open market for the first time in his career.

• Faraz delivers five big free agency losers 📉. See which players are trending in the wrong direction following the league-wide shakeup.

• Steelers officially name QB Russell Wilson their starter for 2024 despite trading for QB Justin Fields

  • Since our last newsletter, the Steelers added to their QB room by bringing in former Bears first-round QB Justin Fields – who for the moment has officially been named the backup to Russell Wilson. Chicago reportedly wanted to send Fields to a destination where he could continue to ‘develop his career’, and nobody would blame them for thinking that Pittsburgh would be a great spot for him to do just that. While it seems like the Steelers are content to roll into 2024 with Wilson firmly cemented as their starter, a heated quarterback competition seems liable to break out at any moment should Wilson struggle in the early going. That’s not guaranteed to happen, but it is a possibility – which means that in the short term, Russell Wilson is the QB to select in redraft formats. As for Justin Fields, a year under Russell Wilson and Mike Tomlin in a steady organization has the potential to do him a world of good in the long term, so all is not lost with Fields’ value in dynasty, either. He could also be a plus starter should anything happen to Wilson during the season, making Pittsburgh’s QB room one of the most interesting we’ve seen in the NFL in some time.

• FA RB Alexander Mattison visits with Raiders Monday following release from Minnesota

  • Mattison showed his true colors last season in the absence of Dalvin Cook, failing to score a touchdown on the ground despite starting 16 games for the Vikings in 2023. As a result, the Vikings opted to move in a different direction and sign former Packers RB Aaron Jones to a one-year deal. Mattison won’t be challenging for a clear starting role in any backfield in 2024, but he could make himself relevant enough in the passing game to siphon valuable touches through the air away from a prospective workhorse running back. The Raiders current lead back, RB Zamir White, has an opportunity to establish himself as Vegas’ RB1 with the departure of Josh Jacobs, but the draft and any potential additions in the second wave of free agency could present issues for his potential in 2024. Enter Alexander Mattison, who could contribute just enough to the Raiders offense to anchor down White’s value from reaching true RB1 status. Pen has yet to be put to paper here, and it’s just a visit, but the fact that the Raiders are hosting any running backs for visits could suggest that even if they want to trust White as their RB1 in 2024 (a hard IF), they don’t want to get caught with all of their eggs in one basket.

• Cowboys release WR Michael Gallup as cap casualty; Gallup set to meet with Panthers this week

  • With Dallas evidently feeling the cap crunch – they’ve been the least active team in free agency by far to begin the new league year – Gallup lands in the free agent pool as a cap casualty in search of a new home in 2024. His first visit is set with the Panthers, who recently added former Steelers WR Diontae Johnson to a room that already featured veterans Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark. The Panthers have yet to make the true splash signing at a skill position to help second-year QB Bryce Young recover from a miserable rookie season, and Gallup certainly wouldn’t qualify as that should the Panthers pull the trigger on adding him. Gallup has struggled to stay healthy and be productive in two seasons post-ACL tear, falling well down the depth chart behind the likes of star WRs Brandin Cooks and even Jalen Tolbert. In need of a fresh start, Gallup will look to recapture the form that saw him hold his own in a crowded Cowboys receiving room back in his heyday – which featured a single 1000-yard season in 2019. As for a potential fit with the Panthers, he’d likely slot in as a field stretcher opposite the recently acquired Johnson.

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE

  • The hope was that Stevenson can be an every-down back with Zeke gone, but the Patriots secured one of the better pass-catching and pass-blocking RBs available in Antonio Gibson. On what should be a run-heavy offense though, Stevenson is still in line for a big workload in 2024, but goes from a potential RB1 to a solid RB2.

• RB D’Andre Swift, CHI

  • Despite the big money, I’m not convinced Swift will be the workhorse in a backfield with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Herbert in particular has been a very good RB since entering the league, including last year, so there is a chance Swift relinquishes some opportunities to him at the very least. Johnson can still be used as their primary pass protector.

• RBs Chase Brown & Ty Chandler, CIN & MIN

  • If you thought Brown or Chandler had high chances of going into Week 1 as clear starters, I don’t know what to tell you. Moss replaced Mixon with the quickness, and ranked 5th among all RBs last year in rush yards over expectation per attempt. Expect a competition for the starting gig in Cincy. Jones is the clear starter in Minnesota.

• RB Brian Robinson, WAS

  • Robinson can still outscore Ekeler in 2024, but this addition doesn’t bode too well for Robinson staying on the field as much as he could’ve. Ekeler will likely get more opportunities than Gibson received last year and mix in on early downs in Kingsbury’s Air Raid attack. Btw, Robinson was low key good last year FWIW.

• Vikings offense

  • We have to bump Justin Jefferson down the ranks a couple of spots. He’ll still be a solid WR1, but he currently has Sam Darnold as his QB1. Addison struggled once Cousins got hurt last year, and TJ Hockenson was a target magnet for Cousins as well, so this obviously doesn’t bode well for him, either.

It’s time to BUY QB Anthony Richardson

Buying Richardson in superflex isn’t the easiest thing to do right now. The cat’s kind of out of the bag, but let me explain why it is, and maybe you can throw some offers out for him in non-SF. You probably will have to overpay for him in SF, but the payout if you hit can be enormous.

I’ll admit, while I was aware of Richardson’s upside, I wasn’t completely sold that he’d come in and be good enough in the pass game in the NFL right away to make him a high-end fantasy QB1 right away. It’s a tall ask… but he was exactly that as soon as he stepped foot on the field.

Michael Pittman has been signed to a long-term deal. He’s a baller, and a true alpha WR1… he’s proven that at this point - especially this past season in a non-ideal situation. A full season of Richardson throwing passes his way will be a sight to behold.

Back to Richardson. He was #1 among all QBs in fantasy points per dropback and per opportunity (includes designed rushes, too). Only 2.4% of his throws were deemed turnover-worthy (according to FantasyPoints.com) - Kirk Cousins was at 2.3%, CJ Stroud was at 2%, Jared Goff was at 2% - just for some context.

While he passed the ball better than I thought he would to start, there is some serious room to grow in the passing department. He ranked 4th-worst among qualifying QBs in off-target throws, he ranked 38th in accurate throw percentage, 45th in adjusted completion percentage, while he depending on big plays to make things happen - he was 14th in big-throw percentage. With all that being said, we’ve seen QBs who are liabilities in the passing game - Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields… become really good fantasy QBs, and we’ve also seen someone like Hurts take that next step forward with some time.