Food, Family, and Fantasy Football! 🦃 🏈

Happy Thanksgiving from Upper Hand Fantasy! Enjoy some time with family and catch some great NFL action today and the rest of the weekend.

What’s in store:

• It’s real Zach Charbonnet hours in Seattle. With Kenneth Walker doubtful, the rookie will assume RB1 duties for the Seahawks.

• Bittersweet: Derek Carr looks ready to return in Week 12. Let’s be honest: Jameis Winston peppering Chris Olave was really just a pipe dream to begin with.

• Thanksgiving Day game previews! See Faraz’s most important notes on the matchups that matter in this week’s Turkey Day contests.

• Drake London is an outlier for the wrong reasons in Week 1. See what’s got the fantasy community infuriated with him.

• Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker officially doubtful for for tonights game vs 49ers, Zach Charbonnet to start

  • The understanding coming into the week has been that Walker would likely miss Seattle’s Thanksgiving tilt against the 49ers given the short turnaround, so this development isn’t particularly surprising. It is consequential, however, in that it effectively promotes rookie RB Zach Charbonnet into the starting role for the Seahawks against the 49ers. San Francisco has been relatively stingy against the run - they’ve allowed just the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position this year - and there's a chance that it’s Drew Lock, not Geno Smith, under center for Seattle. In that event, the entire offense’s upside would be significantly limited, including Charbonnet’s, who would have to rely on work in the passing game - which, to this point so far, he’s been able to live off of - to remain fantasy relevant this week.

• Saints QB Derek Carr practices in full on Wednesday, trending towards playing in Week 12

  • And just like that, our dreams of seeing what Jameis Winston can do in the Saints offense are killed. According to reports out of Saints practice, Carr is on track to clear the concussion protocol and suit up against the Falcons in Week 12. The last time we saw Derek Carr, he was tanking WR Chris Olave’s fantasy value by neglecting to target him in the first half of the Saints’ Week 10 matchup against the Vikings. Carr’s average QB play puts a lid on any potential upside for Chris Olave at this point - although a trip to IR for Michael Thomas has the potential to free up some extra targets for Olave and co. moving forward. Regardless, it’s difficult to trust a Carr-quarterbacked offense right now to support a top-12 fantasy WR at this point, but fantasy managers can start Olave as a solid WR2 with low-WR1 upside in a solid matchup this week.

• Bengals WR Tee Higgins remains sidelined on Wednesday, status for Week 12 in question

  • The hamstring injury continues to linger for the Bengals No. 2 option, who after an injury to Joe Burrow becomes all the more obsolete with regards to his rest of season value. It’s officially only the first practice of the week for the Bengals, so Higgins technically has time to log a limited session or two today or tomorrow which would bode well for his chances to return against the Steelers this week. As things stand right now, though, Higgins is starting the week on the wrong foot and is officially questionable to play in Week 12. Even if Higgins were able to go, though, the upside in the Jake-Browning led Bengals offense is nowhere to be found. That’s a big issue for a player who has scored inside the single digits in four of his eight games this year, making Higgins a shot-in-the-dark flex play against Pittsburgh.

• On the Packers side, AJ Dillon will be their starter at running back despite being listed as questionable going into this one - he’s got a tough matchup against the Lions, who are allowing 3.5 yards/carry to RBs. That’s the 3rd fewest in the NFL, and they’ve also allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points/game to RBs as well.

• I do think the matchup for Jordan Love isn’t bad though, so he’s a solid streamer - if he can move the ball a bit, maybe Dillon can see some carries near the goal line that could save his day. I have Love as my QB12 on the week; the Lions have given up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs this season.

• Jayden Reed was placed on the injury report with a chest injury… as long as he plays, I think he’s the preferred Packers WR for me. We talked about it on the waiver show yesterday, but he’s rattled off 2 Top-12 finishes in a row should have you considering him. He’s a low-end WR3 play for me, and Romeo Doubs is a flex play who you’re hoping finds the end zone like he’s had in 4 of his last 5 games.

• On the Lions side, Jahmyr Gibbs is a RB1 play - the matchup is great, his usage is great - don’t overthink it, he’s in your lineup. As for David Montgomery - remember, it was the Packers who he had his 32 carry, 3 TD performance against in Week 4, and that was in Green Bay. They’re at home for this one, so he should be in lineups as well - I have him as my RB12 on the week.

• The Cowboys are 11 point favorites in this one at home - the matchup, on paper, is absolutely ridiculous for both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Dak has scored 29+ in each of his past two home games, and Lamb has scored 39+ in those same games at home. Washington is also allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and the third most to wide receivers… I have Dak as my QB1 and CeeDee Lamb as my WR1 on the week.

• You can also play Brandin Cooks if you want, as well - Dallas hasn’t shown any indications that they would plan to take their foot off the gas in this one even if they go up early. Washington is one of the worst teams against WRs and Cooks can take advantage after dicing up the Giants for 173 yards and a touchdown a couple of games ago… I have him as a low-end WR3.

• The matchup for Jake Ferguson isn’t amazing, but his route participation has been above 80% in 4 of the last 5 weeks, and he’s had a TE1 finish in 3 of his last 4 games. He checks in as a solid TE1 this week, but I mentioned I’m playing the normal must-start TEs plus Dalton Schultz over him this week.

• We mentioned that Geno might not play and how that can affect these WRs - we want Geno to play so that this game has a chance of being competitive. But CMC is in, Brandon Aiyuk is in as a solid WR2 - not the best matchup in the world for him, but he should still be in your lineup. The Seahawks have done pretty well against WRs lately, so maybe temper expectations there a little bit.

• Deebo Samuel is my WR28 on the week… it might seem low, but he’s seen only 4 targets in each of the last 2 weeks. Yes, he can get some usage in the red zone in the run game and all that, but you’re kinda clinging to gadget production at that point… 3 catches and 1 carry last week for Deebo, and 4 catches and 3 carries the week before… not the best usage in the world.

• George Kittle is just on a tear right now - I had to move him back up the rankings as my TE4 on the week. Seattle’s given up the 9th most fantasy points/game to TEs over the last 4 weeks, and Kittle’s finished as the TE2, TE3, and TE1 over the last three weeks. He’s balling. He’s had 5 Top-5 finishes up to this point.

The Browns offense was far from effective against the Steelers in Week 11, with the team putting up just 13 points as a team but still escaping with a win in rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s second start of the season. One of the most interesting - and consequential - developments from the game was the target distribution among Cleveland’s pass catchers, which was particularly notable when it came to TE David Njoku.

The box score wouldn’t tell you that Njoku had a career day against Pittsburgh this past week, but the utilization would: his 15 targets from Dorian Thompson-Robinson in their matchup against the Steelers was by far a career high for the Browns tight end. His 38% target share on the day, as well, led the team by a large margin, nearly doubling Amari Cooper’s 20% target share and more than doubling Elijah Moore’s 18%.

It’s a small sample size with Dorian Thompson Robinson under center, but across two games with him at quarterback, Njoku has earned a 30% target share and finished as a TE1 in both of those games. With DTR likely remaining under center for at least the next week or two (assuming Joe Flacco isn’t thrown into the fray right off the bat), Njoku has a chance to be one of the more productive TEs in the NFL if this type of utilization holds up.