FOUR Moves to Make in Week 5 📁

I wonder if Jahmyr Gibbs drafted himself in fantasy because he bought into all the talk before the season about how he was going to be used, too.

What’s in store:

• Kenny Pickett could be back as early as this week! He’s thankfully avoided serious injury and should see the field sooner rather than later.

• HOLD Justin Fields? The sell window is as open as it’ll ever be – but could there be a hidden upside to keeping him?

• It’s time to buy Drake London. It’s all about anticipation with the former first rounder, but acquiring him could pay off in a big way.

• Stock up for Quentin Johnston! 📈 As expected, the first round rookie saw an expanded role with Mike Williams out for the season.

• Seahawks QB Geno Smith appears to have avoided significant injury after missing time in-game Monday night vs Giants

  • Smith was able to return to the game on Monday night and looks like he should be good to go after the Seahawks bye in Week 5. The extra week off should help ensure that Smith is all the way clear of the injury, which evidently wasn’t that serious to begin with. He’s continued to play at a high level since breaking out onto the fantasy scene last year with the Seahawks, and an even better supporting cast this year has him set up to replicate that success moving forward. Fantasy managers can expect to have their QB1 the next time the Seahawks take the field in Week 6 barring any setbacks between now and then.

• Steelers QB Kenny Pickett has a chance to play Week 5 vs Ravens despite bone bruise in his knee

  • What originally looked to be a significant injury that had the fantasy community speculating whether or not Pickett would avoid a trip to IR has fortunately turned out to be just a minor ailment. Pickett has played far from impeccable football and the Steelers offense has been one of the least fantasy conducive units in the league, but week to week stability under center will be key if the Steelers want to build any type of momentum moving forward. Given that it’s early in the season yet and the Steelers have their bye in Week 6, there’s a chance Pittsburgh holds out the sophomore signal caller to make sure he’s all the way right for the stretch run. If that would be the case, Mitch Trubisky would be in line to start in Week 5 against the Ravens. The stock report for George Pickens, Najee Harris, and the rest of Pittsburgh’s weapons remains largely identical regardless of which QB takes the field, but there’s no reason to chase down Trubisky on waivers unless you have a desperate need at the position.

• BUY WR Drake London, ATL

  • With London, you want to get ahead of the quarterback change because there’s definitely going to be enough cautious optimism around him when it happens that whoever has him isn’t going to be willing to move him. You’ll make an offer and they’ll say “I think I want to hold onto him just this one more week and see what Taylor Heinicke can do.” At that point, you’ve already lost the game.

  • The fact that the NFC South is competitive only puts more cracks in the thin ice Desmond Ridder is standing on, so there’s the chance we could see Heinicke as early as Week 6. They’re playing the Texans this week, and they’ve handled pretty much every matchup so far that’s been thrown at them. Say the QB change happens then - that would give London a responsible decision maker at QB with matchups against the Commanders and Titans over a 3-week span into Week 8, who are allowing the 7th and 6th most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year.

  • Now, Taylor Heinicke would be a step in the right direction, but he wouldn’t solve all of the utilization problems London has right now. That’s on Arthur Smith. There’s no reason Jonnu Smith should be getting an 18% target share, but he is. But this is a receiver that’s seen between 6 and 8 targets in each of the past three weeks, and if the quality of those targets could climb just a little if Heinicke would step in, he’d be able to return nicely on an investment that should be cheap right now.

  CONSIDER HOLDING QB Justin Fields, CHI

  • I know the immediate takeaway from this past week has been to sell Fields because of the excellent matchup against the Broncos, but I’m going to play devil’s advocate here and help you imagine for a second what holding him could look like.

  • He’s actually been relatively serviceable this season and he finally has a performance he can build on moving forward. That didn’t happen through the first three weeks of the year. It only stings as bad as it does to see him underperform because we drafted him so high this season, but he hasn’t gone full Daniel Jones on us and thrown up a six bomb in the game log.

  • I do think you should definitely be fielding offers for him and using him in negotiations, especially if you can move up a few pegs in value at QB. Targeting guys like Kirk Cousins and Brock Purdy would make sense to me if you want to add security with some upside vs the volatility of Fields. But looking ahead, things don’t look all that bad for Fields – he’s got FOUR STRAIGHT matchups against teams currently ranking inside the top-10 for the most points allowed to QBs this season - the Commanders, Vikings, Raiders, and Chargers. Imagine he gets things going in the ground game - could we see a mid-season breakout like we did last year?

  HEAT CHECK WR Ceedee Lamb, DAL

  • You’d be lying if you said you weren’t the slightest bit disappointed with Ceedee Lamb’s start to 2023, right? He’s got just one finish inside the Top-10 so far, and the rest of the games he’s averaged 12 points per game. Now, he also hasn’t let any of his managers down, so there’s a chance you’ll immediately be denied when you check on his price. But it’s worth a shot given that he’s had just four catches in three of his four games this year.

  • Lamb has been quiet because the Cowboys haven’t been in game scripts where they’ve needed to pass the ball a lot, but that’s about to change starting this week. Over their next four games, they’re facing the Niners, the Chargers, the Rams, and the Eagles. All of these games, at the very least, are going to have neutral game scripts. Lamb’s utilization doesn’t jump off the stat sheet right now - 23% target share isn’t dominating by any means, but that has a chance to change for the better in the future. Just check in with the person in your league who has Lamb and see if you can get him at a discount.

  SELL WR Romeo Doubs, GB

  • This feels like taking the low-hanging fruit here because Christian Watson’s role is only going to increase as time goes on, but it’s the truth. Doubs put up a season-high 38% target share and 41% air yards share coincidentally in Watson’s first game of the season, but that was with Watson on the field for just 48% of routes. As Watson is ramped up these next few weeks, Doubs’ workload presumably will decrease - not to an insignificant level, but enough that saying he’s reached peak value on the year in Week 4 wouldn’t be a crazy statement.

  • At this point, you can leverage the relative mystery that’s hanging around in the Packers offense; last week it was Doubs as Jordan Love’s go-to, but two weeks before it was Jayden Reed. There’s a chance that Doubs and Watson are both solid fantasy wide receivers and neither takes over as the WR1. But there’s only one receiver in the room that can dominate target share once he’s healthy, and that’s Watson. Not to mention that Aaron Jones is only getting healthier and he’ll be mixed in on passing downs - he saw a 15% target share back in Week 1.

  • Doubs has been leading the Packers in utilization more often than not these first four weeks, but that’s not likely to continue on a regular basis - maximize his value and move him for a receiver like Drake London.

Through the first three weeks of the season (and at the same time, the first three games of his career), Quentin Johnston struggled to see the field buried behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer on the depth chart. It was beginning to look like 2023 might be a wash for Johnston, but Mike Williams’ season-ending ACL tear opened up the opportunity for the first rounder to see an expanded role – something that the Chargers made a reality on Sunday against the Raiders.

After failing to reach a route participation over 38% in his first three games, Johnston was ramped all the way up to a 71% route participation in Week 4 against the Raiders. That was a direct result of Mike Williams’ absence, but with the rest of the season to go, Johnston should have the best chance he can get and plenty of time in the Chargers offense to pull ahead of Josh Palmer in the route participation department.

The road to fantasy relevance for Johnston isn’t perfectly clear, though. Despite the increase in snaps, Johnston only saw a target on 14% of his routes - a number that will have to go up if he wants to contend with the likes of Keenan Allen and, as early as their return to action in Week 6, Austin Ekeler for targets. However, his usage could increase if the Chargers would find themselves in a non-positive game script like they faced on Sunday against Las Vegas (Justin Herbert also threw just 24 passes on the day). He’s a prospective add off the waiver wire with the potential to become a weekly flex/WR3, but that could be later rather than sooner.