Free agency starts with a BANG! 🔥

Kirk Cousins, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs, oh my! Free Agency is off to a blistering start with some big names finding new homes on Day 1 of the legal tampering period. 💪

What’s in store:

• Kirk Cousins lands huge four-year deal in Atlanta! ⚫️🔴 Can he revive the fantasy prospects of the Falcons’ top two receiving threats?

• Saquon Barkley heads home to Philadelphia 🦅. The former Penn State star and 2nd overall pick joins a division rival for 2024.

• Josh Jacobs is the big cheese in Green Bay 🧀. The Packers left no doubt about who their starting running back for 2024 is.

• Is Justin Herbert in for his worst statistical year yet? He just landed a new HC and OC – how could that happen? Faraz walks us through.

• Falcons to sign former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to 4-year, $180M mega deal

  • The largest free agenct contract in NFL history goes to Kirk Cousins, who is just months removed from suffering a torn achilles during the 2023 regular season. The risk is plain and obvious with this contract without a doubt, but at the same time, it’s impossible to ignore the massive upgrade that a healthy Cousins would provide to a Falcons offense that has lacked stability and quality at QB for so long. The fantasy values of WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts are almost entirely dependent on whether or not Cousins can return to form, but the bottom lane is that both pass catchers get upgrades with one of the best distributors of the football in the game under center in Atlanta. Perhaps most surprising is the length and amount of money included in the deal; Cousins will be 36 by the time kickoff rolls around, setting him on pace to 39 going on 40 by the end of the contract. Time will tell how his achilles is able to heal, but fantasy managers can without a doubt move their Falcons weapons up the draft board ahead of 2024.

• Eagles sign former Giants RB Saquon Barkley to three-year, $37.5M deal

  • Howie Roseman spending big money on a running back… and one from within the division? Surely that’s never gone wrong for the Eagles before. If you know, you know, but the bottom line here is that Saquon lands in an excellent offense behind a still very imposing offensive line, even sans Jason Kelce. Saquon wasn’t incredibly efficient in 2023, but that was obviously on a Giants offense that stank the place up on a weekly basis and offered next to zero touchdown scoring potential early in the season and down the stretch. With the Eagles, he’ll now be forced to contend with the famed ‘tush push’, something that Philly’s last running back D’Andre Swift struggled to overcome in his lone year with the team. The fact that it’s a three-year deal for Barkely suggests that they plan to use him as a workhorse back from day one, and he should be expected to rank among the league’s best on a weekly basis in 2024. Even with Jalen Hurts sharing the backfield with him, Barkley should be able to scrape the upside he hasn’t been able to in the Meadowlands since his season-ending injury in 2020.

• Packers execute blockbuster sign-and-release, adding RB Josh Jacobs and cutting RB Aaron Jones

  • In one of the more shocking developments of a crazy first day of free agency, the Packers agreed to terms with Josh Jacobs on a contract before officially releasing the incumbent Aaron Jones less than an hour later. What at first looked like backfield where two RB1s would siphon each other’s fantasy value quickly became exclusively Jacobs’, who will serve as the Packers’ undisputed RB1 in 2024 barring a last-minute addition via the draft. Jacobs was one of the least efficient runners in the league last year on the heels of an incredibly productive 2022 season, but he cashes in in Green Bay and will have the starting role all but locked up and to himself in the upstart Green Bay offense. As for Jones, contract negotiations stalled ahead of the Jacobs signing and he became an unnecessary asset in the backfield. As of the writing of this newsletter, he remains a free agent – though that could change in the very near future with the running back reportedly set to have plenty of suitors in a still-rich field of free agents at RB. Whether or not Jones gets another shot as a clear RB1 at this point remains to be seen, but he has enough left in the tank to contribute in real life and to fantasy teams alike in 2024.

His new HC Jim Harbaugh and OC/playcaller Greg Roman have a history of having an extremely run-heavy approach. They even coached together as HC/OC in San Francisco from 2011-2013; during those three seasons, here’s where they ranked in pass and rush attempts per game:

2011

Pass Attempts/game: 31st

Rush Attempts/game: 3rd

2012

Pass Attempts/game: 31st

Rush Attempts/game: 7th

2013

Pass Attempts/game: 32nd

Rush Attempts/game: 3rd

The QBs during those 49ers years were Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, so we’re not talking QBs who are as talented in the pass game as Justin Herbert. Frank Gore was averaging 272 carries/season as their workhorse in those years, so it clearly wasn’t a system reliant on the QB.

Greg Roman was also Buffalo’s OC with Tyrod Taylor at QB for a little more than a year before he got fired after Week 2 of Year 2. The Bills offense looked pretty similar to those 49ers offenses I mentioned before…

Bills in 2015

• Pass Attempts/game: 31st

• Rush Attempts/game: 2nd

All while LeSean McCoy averaged almost 19 carries/game and was the overall RB3 during his 8-game healthy stretch that season. Look ahead to Roman’s days in Baltimore, and again, they’re very similar splits.

Ravens 2019

• 32nd in pass attempts

• 1st in rush attempts

Ravens 2020

• 32nd in pass attempts

• 1st in rush attempts

Ravens 2021 (JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards tore ACLs)

• 9th in pass attempts

• 3rd in rush attempts

Ravens 2022

• 28th in pass attempts

• 7th in rush attempts

What about Jim Harbaugh? Greg Roman isn’t just seizing full control of the offense, right? Well, here’s where Harbaugh ranked in pass attempts among the 134 FBS schools throughout his Michigan tenure:

• 2023: 120

• 2022: 113th

• 2021: 95th

• 2020: 33rd

• 2019: 68th

• 2018: 103

• 2017: 98

• 2016: 94

JJ McCarthy didn’t throw the ball a ton under Harbaugh, but neither did Andrew Luck when he was paired with Harbaugh at Stanford in 2009 and 2010.

The elephant in the room, then, is this - with a dynamic passer like Justin Herbert, you have to think this changes a bit right? I hope so, but these coaches’ histories don’t give us a ton of confidence. One thing is clear, though - target their starting RB. They have a clear hole to fill, and they have options via free agency and the NFL Draft.

SELL RB Raheem Mostert - Miami

I get upset when people don’t agree with this one. And I’m including him here because more people disagree with this one than I thought. I get riding Derrick Henry ‘til the wheels fall off (I’m selling him too if I can), but this is Mostert. Last year was an outlier season, and it’s our responsibility to recognize these types of season, especially considering this was Mostert’s peak year; a peak year for a RB at age 31 has happened only 4 times before him since 2000.

At the ripe age of 31, he had a 1000-yard 18 TD season. The last time a 31-year old RB had 10+ rusing TDs in a season was Thomas Jones (14) for the Jets in 2009. The fantasy RB3 in FPPG. Got you to the fantasy playoffs. Good memories if you had him. Sell him now before he turns into a pumpkin. Sell him for whatever you can. Find that competing team that needs RBs; they will be the only team willing to buy.

He’s turning 32 before the NFL Draft. The only 32-year old RBs since 2000 who have had 1000+ yard seasons were Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Ricky Williams, and Emmitt Smith. Don’t you dare put Mostert in that category, especially when they have De’Von Achane ready to take the reins next season. If you’re asking why anything would change in Miami, you’re betting against history, you’re betting against Achane’s ability, and you’re missing an opportunity to sell high.

When you’re selling Mostert, make sure to use all of his efficiency metrics to make your trade partner believe that Mostert still has it and will continue to do his thing.

Rushing yards over expectation/attempt: 0.61 (8th)

Missed tackles forced/attempt: 0.25 (6th)

Yards after contact/attempt: 3.4 (6th)