The Gabe Davis game continues... 🫨

Congratulations, everyone - welcome to the fantasy football championship. You’ve made it this far… it’s time to seal the deal.

What’s in store:

• Trevor Lawrence is pretty much a test dummy at this point. The sheer number of injuries he’s sustained this season is incredible, but this new one could be a bit more problematic than the rest.

• Minnesota is suddenly thin at pass catcher. Injuries to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson have left Justin Jefferson as the only viable target.

• Zach’s top Week 16 takeaways. It was an incredibly busy week around the league - Zach' helps to cut through the smoke.

• Breece Hall’s career performance in Week 16. Were you able to overcome Amari Cooper’s big game with Breece Hall?

• Trevor Lawrence adds a sprained shoulder to his laundry list of injuries this season in Week 16 loss to Buccaneers

  • The injuries have just continued to pile up for the third-year quarterback and the injury to his throwing shoulder proved to be too much for Lawrence to play through. Ankle sprains, concussions, and knee issues have all sprung up at some point in the season before this, and it’s fair to question whether or not those ailments have affected his on-field performance at this point. Regardless, his status will be one to monitor as we begin championship week preparations – especially with a touch matchup on paper against the Panthers on deck. QB C.J. Beathard would be the player to pick up in desperate situations in the event that Lawrence would be unable to go this week, but reports from NFL Network’s Ian Rapaport indicate that not much is known about the full extent of Lawrence’s injury at this point in time. While it would be great to fall back on the fact that Lawrence has been able to gut it out and play through injuries before, an injury to his throwing shoulder could present more issues than the others have previously. Fantasy managers should assume that Lawrence will miss Week 17 to prevent themselves from being left without an answer if/when he is ruled out.

• Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson exits Sunday’s game vs Lions with knee injury, status moving forward in doubt

  • Initial reports on the injury are ‘not good’ for the star tight end, who was on track to finish as the overall TE1 in total points this season at his pace coming into the game. In a game where both he and WR Jordan Addison exited with injuries, QB Nick Mullens was left with Justin Jefferson as his sole target in the passing game. With Addison considered week-to-week with an ankle sprain of his own and Hockenson’s availability for the remainder of the season in serious question, fantasy managers should expect targets to be comfortably funneled to Justin Jefferson the rest of the way, regardless of who the Vikings have under center. Despite his four interceptions on the day, Mullens had the Vikings in position to steal a win against the Lions at the end of the game, and seeing as their offense has been the most dynamic it’s been with him under center since Kirk Cousins went down, there’s a chance it could be Mullens once again in Week 17 for the Vikings under center. Fantasy managers should monitor Hockenson’s status closely in the coming 24 hours – there could be some new teams combing the waiver wire for a starting tight end this week.

• Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco suffers concussion Christmas day vs. Raiders, could miss Week 17

  • The injury, while it shouldn’t be a long term one, definitely opens up some serious opportunity for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to make some serious noise in the fantasy championship in Week 17. Pacheco will be starting the week behind the eight ball with the Chiefs slated to play their next game on Sunday - six days after Pacheco originally sustained the concussion. With RB Jerick McKinnon on IR and Pacheco’s status for a Week 17 tilt against the Bengals suddenly in question, CEH could step into the lead role in the Kansas City backfield for fantasy managers who held onto him as a handcuff for Pacheco in the games he missed just a short few weeks ago. If Pacheco does, indeed, miss Week 17, his fantasy season will effectively be over with most league championships wrapping up before the last game of the NFL regular season. Fantasy managers should keep tabs on the situation in the Chiefs’ backfield moving forward.

Tee Higgins saves the day with long touchdown

• It was another week and another extremely well-distributed target share for Jake Browning and the Bengals pass catchers. Five different players earned a target share higher than 10% on the afternoon, led by Tee Higgins (20%), Andre Iosivas (20%), Tyler Boyd (15%), Trenton Irwin (13%) and Joe Mixon (10%). This has been the issue with Cincinnati’s offense since Browning took over under center for Joe Burrow, and it took a lightning strike 80-yard touchdown with the Bengals down big to salvage Tee Higgins’ fantasy day. In PPR formats, that lone touchdown accounted for 60% (15.0 points) of Higgins’ production on the day, and fantasy managers shouldn’t be encouraged to see that happen again next week against a stout Chiefs defense in Week 17. Higgins was able to come through this week, and that’s all fine and dandy – but it doesn’t look like Higgins is primed to earn that alpha WR1 target share that we would like to see him earn. He’ll likely remain a fringe-WR2 worthy play as a result for the final two games of the regular season.

Don’t put Gabe Davis in your lineup for the chip

• Did Gabe Davis just put up a 29% target share and a 44% air yards share against the Chargers complete Swiss cheese defense? Yes he did. But Gabe Davis has also scored exactly ZERO fantasy points in three of his last five games – earning just three targets in those contests with no catches. That’s a one target per game average, folks - not good. It’s comical at this point how Gabe Davis has become the very definition of a boom/bust fantasy player - he’s scored either 22+ fantasy points or exactly zero in each of his past five games. That’s happened on the backdrop of Stefon Diggs going through his coldest spell of his career as a Bill, making it all the more ironic that even with Diggs failing to produce, Davis remains an impossible start in fantasy. At this point, the risk with Gabe Davis is extremely well-documented, as well as the upside… but in your fantasy championship, are you going to trust him as your WR3 or even your flex knowing that laying an egg is not only possible, but probably given his recent track record? It’s not the most horrific matchup in the world for the Bills next week against the Patriots, but you’d have to be pretty down bad for a wide receiver to put your faith in Gabe Davis to not leave you hanging in the most important game of the season.

Bijan Robinson gets his workload back… somewhat

• Congratulations if you had Bijan in your starting lineup this week: you didn’t get burned. But that was primarily because he got his work back in the receiving game that he was missing in last week’s abomination of a first round fantasy playoffs performance, and not because he suddenly dominated the backfield share of work. Bijan and Tyler Allgeier split carries right down the middle at 40% apiece, but Bijan’s 89% route participation was the highest he’s had in his career and his 33% tagret share was his highest since Week 1. For some reason, Cordarrelle Patterson is still working in at a 20% rate on rush attempts, as well, and unfortunately it doesn’t seem like Arthur Smith is ever going to give Bijan a true bell cow role in the offense - but Bijan came through when his fantasy managers needed him in a good matchup, and now he gets the Bears squishy run defense to close out the fantasy football season. He’ll rank once again as a fringe RB1 this coming weekend.

Those brave enough to keep Breece Hall in their lineups for the fantasy football championship semifinals were rewarded with his best career performance to date - a 43.1 PPR point masterclass that likely helped to nullify Amari Cooper’s monstrous day or compound the fantasy production of those fantasy managers who happened to feature both players this week. After logging his worst performance since the bye last week against the Dolphins in Week 15 - a game where he earned just two targets - Hall earned 8 TIMES as many targets in Week 16 against the Commanders.

Hall’s 16 targets on the afternoon against the Commanders on Christmas Eve marked a career high for the second-year running back, as he led all Jets pass catchers in receiving opportunities - even Garrett Wilson, who logged 15 targets of his own on the afternoon. Hall also ran a route on a season-high 73% of dropbacks and earned a target at the highest rate in a single game all season on a per route basis with 41% TPRR.

That receiving work made Hall an absolute monster in PPR formats, as his 12 catches also marked a career high and his first game with double-digit receptions in his career. That excellence in the receiving game, coupled with a very healthy 4 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns on the ground, placed Hall as the overall RB1 on the week and cements him as one of the top dynasty assets at the running back position moving forward.