Down Geauxs Joe Burrow 😧

Anybody else ready to call training camp off after Garrett Wilson and Joe Burrow went down on the same day? 🙋‍♂️

What’s in store:

• Joe Burrow Geaux(s) down in camp - what happens if the Bengals have to start the year without him?

• We’re in the midst of training camp – how are these WRs going this low?! Faraz picks out two pass catchers that are currently being undervalued in drafts.

• TWO breakout players in Washington? Call him crazy, but Zach shows us how the stars could align to make it happen.

• Dak took a step back in 2022, but is his price too hard to ignore? Tyler has his reservations, but the Cowboys QB could be a value.

• Joe Burrow goes down carted off field on Thursday, diagnosed with calf strain

  • Things didn’t look good on the field, with Burrow coming up lame on what appeared to be a routine scramble exiting the pocket. However, recent reports have indicated that the injury is a strained calf, and will likely keep the Bengals QB sidelined for a considerable portion of training camp. However, this is considered best-case scenario given the possibility of an achilles tear, and Burrow will likely aim to be ready to go for the Bengals 2023 debut in Week 1. While there’s a chance that Burrow could miss some time in the regular season depending on how his recovery goes this next month, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect him to miss more than a game or two, if any, in the upcoming year barring any setbacks.

• Garrett Wilson suffers apparent ankle injury

  • One of two high-profile injuries to occur on Thursday, Jets WR Garrett Wilson left practice early when he limped off the field as a result of an apparent ankle injury. The good news for Wilson is that his injury didn’t require the cart to be brought out, and with still well over a month until the beginning of the season, he should have ample time to make a recovery before the calendar turns to September. While information is hard to come by on his status, an ankle injury is far from the worst-case scenario for the 2nd-year receiver, and a simple sprain will sideline him presumably only for part of camp, and not the regular season. For now, fantasy managers will have to hold their breath a little bit, but there’s no reason to go into your draft differently until clarification on his status is provided.

• Dalvin Cook to pay a visit to the Jets this weekend

  • The fantasy gods taketh away Garrett Wilson, and they giveth Dalvin Cook to the Jets. The veteran free agent RB is scheduled to meet with the Jets this upcoming weekend on a formal visit with the team – potentially foreboding a signing as training camp rolls on. Bringing in Dalvin Cook would make a lot of sense for the Jets, who will likely ease 2nd-year RB Breece Hall back into action over an extended period of time to open 2023. In the meantime, Cook - who still has plenty left in the tank - could operate as a 1A or 1B depending on Hall’s health, and potentially even introduce the possibility of two fantasy-relevant RBs residing in the Jets’ backfield. Cook has been consistently linked to New York throughout the course of the offseason, so a signing there would hardly come as a surprise but would certainly have instant ramifications for Breece Hall and the rest of the Jets backfield, with the latter likely being rendered irrelevant should Cook land there.

• Keenan Allen - WR19 - 35.9

  • Now, his ADP did move up since earlier this offseason – in June, he was going off the board as the WR23 on Underdog, now he’s going off the board as the WR19. That’s the 3/4 turn, so you might be able to snag him in the 4th round of your home league draft, but that’s still a great value even comparatively to his original ADP.

    • The main thing haters talk about is the injuries. Yes, he missed half the year last year… but before that, he missed 3 games over the previous 5 seasons. He played in 96% of his games before this past season. He’s 31, but he should have one more season in him, and if you’re gonna bet on a season, it’s with Kellen Moore coming in - the Chargers could be the most pass-heavy team in the league, and Keenan Allen is likely still the #1 target in that offense.

    • And again, last year, when he came back from his injury, he put up elite fantasy production. #2 in targets behind Justin Jefferson, 5th in receiving yards, 6th in receiving TDs. 18.8 PPR fantasy points/game, WR3 during that span. As the WR19 off the board, you’re most likely getting a high-end WR2, with a potential to finish as a low-end WR1 in PPR.

    • If I was more bullish on Quentin Johnston as a prospect, maybe I’d expect Keenan Allen to not have as many targets – but I’m not sure the ball will be spread out that much. Mike Williams was never a target earner - it’s Keenan Allen and Ekeler, with a little Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston sprinkled in - and I think it’s really Mike who gets hurt with Johnston coming in, because Keenan Allen is still that good.

  • Diontae Johnson - WR29 - 56.2

    • Target earning is a skill, and Diontae Johnson has earned those targets because he’s one of the best route runners and separators in the NFL. 144, 169, and 147 targets over the last three seasons tells you that this dude is a PPR beast… but not only that, the fact that he scored 0 TDs last year is a GREAT thing for anyone who drafts him this year, because those TDs are going to come back in bunches. It’s called regression to the mean.

    • Since 2000, no WR who has had more than 140 targets has had zero TDs in a season. I mentioned this before, but if he scored at his average TD rate for his career last year, he would’ve been the WR22 in PPR points/game rather than the WR42 in PPR points/game he was at last year. This is not normal, this was an anomaly - take advantage, because you don’t get the WR1 target share type of WRs this late in drafts.

    • As the WR31 off the board in the 6th round, I’m expecting a consistent PPR WR2 for you this season at a low-end WR3 price tag.

• Jahan Dotson - WR38, 73.7 (6-7 Turn)

  • Dotson struggled with injuries in his rookie year, but was still productive even with a shell of Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke leading the way as the primary starters. He was able to put up seven touchdowns in twelve starts, which was tied for the fifth most in the league among all receivers, while also putting up 14.9 yards per reception, which was tied for 11th-best in the NFL.

  • That explosiveness helped him to put up two top-12 finished in the last four weeks of the year - something that not a lot of people realize he did. He has extremely solid hands and is as reliable a WR2 as you’ll find in the NFL, and it will help this season just as it did last season to have Terry McLaurin drawing the top defender away from his side.

• The biggest X-factor that will ultimately determine whether or not Dotson reaches his true potential is the level of play of Sam Howell. We talked a lot about Howell on this pod and how he was a gunslinger, but there remains that chance that Howell’s performance in Week 18 of last year was a fluke.

• There’s no guarantee that Howell will be that guy, but I think there’s a better chance than not that Howell can provide QB play well above what the Washington receivers suffered through last season. If Howell can play well within Eric Bienemy’s system, seven touchdowns might come standard every season for years to come.

• Antonio Gibson - RB31, 98.4 (9th Round)

  • A lot of the excitement that I have for Gibson in 2023 stems from the Commanders bringing in Eric Bienemy, who ran an offense that featured a similar backfield duo in Kansas City. In this case, it’s Gibson that’s going to play the Jerick McKinnon to Brain Robinson’s Isiah Pacheco, and that’s exactly what I’m anticipating that’s going to allow Gibson to break out in a big way.

  • Gibson finished last year as PFF’s third-highest graded receiving back among players with 35 or more targets, trailing just Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler. Down the stretch in 2022, it was Isiah Pacheco who had the solid fantasy floor in the early down role, but it was McKinnon who had the week-winning upside. And using Fantasy Life’s data profiles, we also see that Gibson was one of the most targeted running backs on a per route basis in 2022, seeing a target on 24% of his routes run – tied with Alvin Kamara for 7th most among all running backs.

  • So we see he has the chops in the receiving game, and Sam Howell is young. I think Bienemy will encourage Howell to lean on the checkdowns and outlets to help him stay in a rhythm, and those are the routes Gibson is going to be specializing in. Gibson can be a week winner in a big way if he can earn the targets – and he’s shown us that he is perfectly capable of doing that.

2022 was an uncharacteristically rough season for Dak Prescott in fantasy, seeing the QB fail to finish as a top-12 QB in points and/or PPG for the first time in his 7-year career.

While he did miss 5 games to injury, Prescott threw for just 2,860 yards while passing for 23 TDs to 15 INTs, the worst TD-INT ratio of his career. It was also just the second time he failed to hit the 17 PPG threshold in a season since his ‘sophomore slump’ in 2017 that saw him struggle, yet still finish as the QB11 in fantasy.

For one of the most consistent year-to-year QBs, there seems to be a lot to be hesitant about with Prescott heading into 2023. Between a down 2022 season, the departure of Ezekiel Elliott (leaving an unknown rushing attack), the departure of TE Dalton Schultz, and the loss of OC Kellen Moore, there are a lot of uncertainties around Prescott’s 2023 prospects.

The addition of WR Brandin Cooks alleviates some of the uncertainty, filling a very apparent void left by the departure of Amari Cooper last offseason, but perhaps more importantly, his draft price as a low-QB1 (QB9 on ECR, QB11 on ADP) going in the 8th/9th round range makes him a targetable value QB option.

I like him at that price but acknowledge that he enters 2023 as a somewhat ‘boom or bust’ option in fantasy, especially compared to previous years, with the numerous changes to the Cowboys’ offense this offseason.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Despite supporting a WR3 finish for Davante Adams last year with the Raiders, Saints QB Derek Carr has yet to get over the hump to elite fantasy production in any year of his career, consistently finishing as a middle-of-the-pack quarterback with a relatively mediocre weekly floor.

Since his rookie year in 2014, Derek Carr has thrown for less than 30 touchdowns in every year except for 2015, but at least 3400 yards in every season. His rushing production has never been a factor in his career, limiting his fantasy upside to the tune of 6 total career rushing touchdowns and less than 150 rushing yards each season.

Despite consistently high passing volume and passing yardage production, Carr’s low TD rate and relatively high INT rate (averaging 11 interceptions a year) have reduced him to spot-starter status throughout his career. And on a Saints offense that features a similar complement of weapons to the ones he worked with in Las Vegas, Carr seems primed once again to be the fuel to the fantasy engines of those players around him without any real upside himself.