George Pickens opens the week as DNP 🤕

The second round of the fantasy playoffs are fast approaching – don’t get caught without backup plans as the injury reports for this week begin to roll in! Catch up with yesterday’s episode of the Upper Hand Fantasy Podcast: Week 16 Waivers! Plus, stay tuned later today for this week’s QB & RB Matchups episode heading into this weekend’s games!

• Browns, Titans expected to make quarterback changes ahead of Week 16, benching Jameis Winston and Will Levis, respectively

  • With Will Levis failing to command a legitimate NFL offense (nor support WRs Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as relevant fantasy WRs over the past few games), the move to another quarterback for this week isn’t all that surprising. Levis committed four turnovers in what was a very good matchup on paper against the Bengals in Week 15, and while Mason Rudolph wasn’t named specifically as his usurper, it’s likely safe to assume that he’ll be suiting up on Sunday. He came in and played as well as anyone could hope for him to play, and most importantly, he was able to make the offense look competent. Despite the change, Rudolph should remain on waiver wires for the fantasy football semi-finals, while Ridley is unlikely to receive any type of notable bump in the rankings as a result. Meanwhile, the more eye-opening news comes out of Cleveland, with the Browns (of course) reportedly benching Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson ahead of an extremely juicy matchup against the Bengals. The report remains unconfirmed as of the writing of this newsletter, so take it with a grain of salt – however, the Orange and Brown Report’s Brad Stainbrook indicated that the change was happening late yesterday morning. DTR didn’t look any better than Winston in his limited action last week against the Chiefs, and there’s a solid chance that if he would struggle through the first half of the game, Winston could very well find his way back under center for part of the game this weekend. Regardless, if Jameis ultimately doesn’t start, it’ll be impossible to have him in lineups in Week 16, and Jerry Jeudy would profile as likely the only receiver to be trusted with any kind of scoring floor.

• Raiders HC Antonio Pierce says that QB Aidan O’Connell is ‘trending upwards towards playing’ in Week 16 vs Jaguars

  • Aidan O’Connell can’t get back into the starting lineup soon enough. In his first start and full game as starter, Desmond Ridder effectively sh*t his pants on national television and dragged this year’s overall TE1 down with him. Brock Bowers caught just three of six targets for 35 yards in a rousing 9-point showing from a Raiders offense with nothing going on, and WR Jakobi Meyers barely salvaged his day with five catches for 59 yards after going most of the game without a reception. With Ridder under center, the scoring ceiling is severely lowered for all of the weapons in Las Vegas, and it’s an even harsher indictment against Ridder that the Falcons were one of the best matchups in football for receivers going into the game. They draw a similarly strong matchup in Week 16 with the Jaguars on deck, and it’s important that O’Connell is able to return so as to avoid a second-straight squandered opportunity for Bowers, Meyers, and co. The good news is that HC Antonio Pierce seems to be more optimistic this week about a potential return for O’Connell than he was last week, and it’ll take him being under center to establish, at the very least, a startable fantasy floor for both playmakers.

• Steelers WR George Pickens (hamstring) misses practice Tuesday ahead of Saturday, Week 16 game vs Steelers

  • The good news: it’s only the first practice of the week, and the report is a day ahead of schedule because the Steelers play their next game a day early on Saturday. The bad news: the Steelers play their next game a day early on Saturday. It’s unfortunate timing for Pickens to be staring down a short week as he races against time to get back from a hamstring injury that’s caused him to miss the last two games. Without Pickens in the lineup, the Steelers have seen their passing attack vanish into thin air, with Russell Wilson failing to top 160 passing yards in two straight games. Pickens’ return to the lineup will be essential if Russell Wilson is to return to the Week 16 streaming conversation – especially against a Ravens defense that battened down the hatches as of late on their pass defense. Pickens has two more chances to get at least a limited practice in ahead of this Saturday’s game, and if he’s able to, it could be a good sign that he’s trending in the right direction. If Pickens would play, he’d be instantly installed into the WR2 rankings and Russell Wilson would be upgraded to a solid QB2 start – if Pickens doesn’t go, there would likely be better options available on the waiver wire.

Baker Mayfield vs DAL

• Mayfield has finished as a top-10 quarterback ten times this season in 14 games and scored at least 20 fantasy points in nine of those games. Mike Evans looked like Mike Evans last week, Jalen McMillan is coming on, and the Bucs backfield is involved in the receiving game, too – especially in the red zone.

• The matchup against Dallas this week is fantastic: they’re allowing the 10th-most passing yards and 4th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and the 5th-most over the past four weeks. Quarterbacks are also averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game in games played in Dallas, and Mayfield has been one of the most reliable starters this season. He’s my overall QB6 this week.

Russell Wilson vs BAL

• Russell Wilson’s appeal as a starter this week is fully contingent on George Pickens playing. Without Pickens over the past two weeks, Wilson hasn’t eclipsed 160 passing yards in either game and completed just 14 and 15 passes in each. Pickens didn’t practice on Tuesday, so keep a close eye on his status before making any start/sit decisions involving Russ.

• On paper, the matchup against the Ravens looks solid – they’re allowing the 5th-most fantasy points, the most passing yards, and the 7th-most passing touchdowns per game this season. But they’ve tightened up tremendously over the past four games, allowing just the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fewest passing yards and touchdowns over the past four games. 

• I’m personally avoiding Russell Wilson this week between the questions about Pickens’ status and the tough matchup in Baltimore. Russ couldn’t come through last week either in another tough road matchup against the Eagles, and we could be in for more of the same.

James Conner vs CAR

• The golden matchup for running backs is James Conner’s to exploit this week, with the Panthers allowing the most fantasy points, rush attempts, rush yards, and rush touchdowns per game in the NFL. There are no two ways to cut it: this is the best fantasy matchup a running back can have, and it just so happens that playoff James Conner is stepping into it.

• Conner has averaged 21 opportunities per game over the past three weeks and turned in his best fantasy performance of the season in – you guessed it – the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Almost hilariously, he’s averaged 19 and 22.1 PPR points per game in the fantasy playoffs in 2022 and 2023, respectively, and he just dropped a 30 burger to kick off the 2024 fantasy playoffs. I could be letting the lore carry his ranking a bit, but I have him as my RB6 this week.

Ameer Abdullah vs JAX

• Abdullah has the highest ceiling of any Raiders RB not named Sincere McCormick, and that’s exclusively thanks to his ability in the receiving game: he has two top-8 finishes in the past four weeks, and he caught all seven of his targets last week against the Falcons and added a touchdown. 

• He’s almost exclusively a play in PPR unless he would take on more work in the ground game, but we haven’t seen him handle more than 50% of the RB carries in a game. The matchup against Jacksonville, though, plays right into Abdullah’s skillset: the Jaguars are allowing the 5th-most receptions, the 2nd-most receiving yards, and the 8th-most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.

• He’s a flex play with RB2 upside depending on how involved Mattison is, but assuming Sincere McCormick is out, Abdullah could have a place in lineups for teams who have been relying on Nick Chubb and even Tony Pollard if he’s ultimately ruled out.