What is Going on with Justin Fields? 😯

Gotta love the Week 2 Steelers defense doing their best Week 1 Cowboys defense impression. Surely nobody won or lost their week late Monday night…

What’s in store:

• Big RB names, big injuries, big implications. Nick Chubb is done for the year, and Saquon is banged up on a short week.

• How concerned should we be with Justin Fields? Luke Getsy has inexplicably turned his back on what Fields does best.

• Trouble brewing in Las Vegas and Cincinnati? Deep breaths. Don’t throw Ja’Marr Chase and Josh Jacobs onto the block just yet.

• Bijan has been a monster. See the full extent of his domination in this newsletter’s stat of the day!

• Browns RB Nick Chubb to miss the rest of the 2023 season after sustaining severe leg injury vs Pittsburgh

  • While the exact specifications of the injury remains unclear, HC Kevin Stefanski said on Tuesday that Chubb is officially out for the season. The hope is for Chubb to have a speedy recovery and be ready to go for the start of the 2024 season. In the meantime, Stefanski outright named Jerome Ford as the clear starter in the Browns backfield, and that was reflected in his usage against the Steelers. The threat of the Browns going outside of the organization to bring in some depth looms large, but given the utilization Ford enjoyed and the production he put up to justify it, it would be a mistake not to pursue him and hold him out of your lineup moving forward.

• Saquon Barkley not remains to be ruled out of Thursday night’s game vs 49ers, Daboll says he’s not “out yet”

  • Could this be the Giants trying to lull the 49ers into believing they won’t have to be ready for Saquon Barkley, a la Jonathan Gannon? Maybe. But the fact that the idea is even being floated right now can only be interpreted as encouraging. The expectation going into Thursday should remain that Saquon Barkley will be unavailable, but on the off chance that he does end up playing, it’ll be in a tough matchup with the 49ers and likely on a limited snap share. The one thing that will result in any circumstance is the Giants RB producing at a lower level than 100%, but if he does go on Thursday, he should be in lineups.

• RBs Trey Sermon, Zonovan Knight enter the Colts and Lions backfields, respectively

  • Sermon enters a Colts backfield that has little talent outside of Zack Moss, who looked good in the heavy workload he received in Week 2. Sermon likely won’t take on a heavy workload – at least not one large enough to make him relevant – but any carries he gets will be taken out of Moss’s volume. Knight, the former Jets running back, was called up the Lions 53-man roster this week presumably in a move to help take over David Montgomery’s vacated role. The hope has been that Jahmyr Gibbs would see more of the work with Monty missing time, but after watching Craig Reynolds handle carries in game last week and a second ball carrier entering the RB room not named Gibbs or Reynolds, it looks like Gibbs could be in for another limited workload in Week 3.

• A lot of people are worried about Justin Fields, as they should be. I’m not dropping him right now, but I don’t understand what Luke Getsy is doing. My guy Conner Allen @ConnerallenNFL on Twitter first brought it up that they’re not implementing any designed rushes for Justin Fields.

• He had 5.3 designed rushes/game last year - awesome, I’d love more… but this year, he has 2 TOTAL designed rushes through two games. Absolutely insane. If you want your offense to thrive, why are you not using your best weapon in Justin Fields’ legs? It makes no sense. I’m optimistic that it can change, but if he’s not getting designed rushes, he’s not going to be that guy for fantasy outside of a few games here and there when he happens to scramble for a big TD - but that opportunity needs to be there, and it’s not right now.

• We spoke a lot about this Bears backfield this summer - my prediction was that this turns into a 2-man backfield between Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, and that’s what happened. D’onta Foreman was a healthy scratch this week, and these two shared the load 50/50… both look good, both made plays, but now since this is not a 3-man backfield anymore, it’s more feasible to start these guys.

• They aren’t must plays by any means, but I’m a lot more comfortable now. I think there’s a chance Roschon’s role can increase even more, too – keep in mind he was the primary passing down back in Week 1, but these two kind of shared that work this week. Herbert had the one goal line snap as well.

• More snaps and opportunities went Herbert’s way, so he’s the preferred start for me right now… but if Roschon is on your waiver wire, he’s a great add even if he’s just a stash for you.

• David Montgomery has a quad injury - he said he’ll likely need a few weeks to heal, and his HC said he’s Day to day. So who knows. Jahmyr Gibbs gets a bump, but we didn’t really see him take on more of an early down role after Montgomery left the game - that work belonged to Craig Reynolds. I think the plan would be to get Gibbs more involved, but Reynolds is a pickup if you need some RB help. I think there’s a good chance he ends up with goal line carries if it comes to that.

• By the way, Gibbs’ role did increase this week regardless of Montgomery’s injury. The snaps were more of a 50/50 split between him and Montgomery this time around, Gibbs ran a lot more routes, and as a result was targeted on 41% of those routes, which is awesome to see. 50% route participation for him is already good, so if we see that number increase - for example, Bijan is at an elite number of 80% or so - that target/route run number is very encouraging to keep those targets up. He saw 9 targets in this one, so he will continue to be a must-start at RB especially without Montgomery.

• By the time Montgomery is back, I think Gibbs will have ramped up to the point where his role will be awesome regardless. Gibbs did sustain a sneaky ankle injury late in the game, but hopefully he’s fine… something to monitor though.

• I think a lot of people are panicking on Ja’Marr Chase, and I get it… you drafted him at #2 overall, and he’s not coming through. You never want your 1st round pick to start this slow, but I think we have to remember that this is Ja’Marr Chase we’re talking about. Let’s not look at this 2-game sample with the very large sample we have and define him by it. He’s going to bounce back - keep starting him as a WR1, don’t sell him low, and if you need a WR to buy low on, he’s THE guy. Even with these crappy first two games, he still has a chance of finishing as the overall WR1 - that’s how good he is.

• Now, Joe Burrow did re-aggravate that calf injury, which kind of sucks… hoping he will be fine. Does that make me a little nervous? Yes, but I’m not making any drastic moves in terms of benching or trading him away. I bet you didn’t think Drake London could bounce back, right? Could you have bet on DJ Moore bouncing back, or Christian Kirk? Look at Tee Higgins’ ridiculous bounce back.

• It’s hard to picture it happening at the moment - but if those guys can do it, Ja’Marr Chase can do it. According to Fantasy Life utilization reports, Ja’Marr Chase has earned a 26% target share for the season. He was at 31% in Week 1, so let’s not overreact.

• Similar thing with Josh Jacobs. Don’t do anything drastic, don’t bench him, don’t trade him away - he’s getting elite usage, and he’ll bounce back as well. I’m not as bullish on Jacobs as I am on Chase because Chase is an elite WR and we have a larger sample of him being that guy, but Jacobs should bounce back.

• He’s close to an every down RB and this offense has shown signs of good things - they just weren’t in a good situation against the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday. 73% of snaps, targeted on 40% of his routes, and the Raiders ran only 40 plays in this game… all reasons to buy. I know it’s hard to picture these guys playing well, but recency bias is always strong - try to fight against it.

Heading into the 2023 regular season, the expectations were sky high for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson in his first year in the NFL. Not only did he land in an offense with an excellent run blocking O-line, but also the offense with the head coach perhaps most notorious for his commitment to the ground game. That, combined with uncertainty at QB, set the bar high for Robinson – and heading into Week 3, he’s easily clearing it.

Robinson currently leads the NFL among all running backs in rushes of 10+ yards while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. That’s while splitting work in the ground game with Tyler Allgeier, and in addition to work that he’s receiving in the receiving game, as well.

To put it into perspective just how effective he’s been for the Falcons and his fantasy managers through two weeks: Bijan is also third in the NFL among running backs in total receiving yards and first in total receptions among running backs. There’s even room for him to improve! If the backfield shifts any more in his favor (and there’s room for that to happen), Bijan could have the inside track on the overall RB1 spot this season.