Would the Colts just hurry up and let Jonathan Taylor go?

What’s in store:

• Jerry Jeudy becomes the latest victim of the injury bug 😔 The diagnosis isn’t world'-breaking, but he could miss some time.

• Kowalski – Analysis! Or maybe it should be Faraz… anyway, Faraz gives us status reports on the standings of current backfield workload shares.

• One Target, One Avoid: Purple Themed. See which Ravens and Vikings players Zach is targeting and avoiding.

• Will Christian Watson fall short of his 2022 hyper-efficiency in 2023? Tyler tells us why it might not be a bad idea to pump the brakes at his ADP.

• Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy goes down with hamstring injury, is carted off practice field

  • He was diagnosed with a moderate hamstring strain that’s likely to keep him sidelined for a few weeks. Jeudy has historically dealt with notably bad combination of injury luck and quarterback play since entering the league in 2020, and it appears that bad luck is slated to continue with his status for Week 1 suddenly in question. With Tim Patrick out for the season and the possibility looming of Jeudy missing some time to begin the year, Courtland Sutton could quickly become a target hog in Denver’s offense. Reports from camp have indicated – even before Jeudy went down – that Sutton has been a favorite target of Russell Wilson’s throughout the offseason, making Sutton a very attractive option at his price if does, indeed, miss some time. Rookie WR Marvin Mims also becomes much more likely to see a fantasy relevant target share in that scenario.

• Ravens TE Mark Andrews expected to remain as Lamar Jackson’s go-to target in 2023

  • The Ravens retooled their offensive arsenal this offseason in the form of two shiny new wide receivers (Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr.), but The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec anticipates TE Mark Andrews to continue to be Lamar Jackson’s top target in the passing game based on what he’s seen in camp. With the Ravens switching over from the run-heavy scheme of former OC Greg Roman to what projects to be a more balanced attack with Todd Monken, an increased reliance on the passing game could be just what the doctor ordered to help Mark Andrews bounce back from a down year in 2022. Andrews is one of two TEs in the league that profile as the top receivers in their respective offenses (Travis Kelce being the other), so even with additional competition for targets, the expectation for Andrews should be yet another Top-5 finish, with the potential to challenge Kelce for the top spot if Lamar continues to prioritize Andrews int he pecking order.

• Sam LaPorta continues his strong preseason

  • The Athletic’s Colton Pouncy reported that LaPorta “might already be Goff’s second-favorite target” behind clearn No. 1 Amon-Ra St. Brown – fanning the flames of what has become a hype-filled offseason for the second round rookie tight end. He’ll have a golden opportunity to build even more rapport at game speed with Goff in the regular season with Jameson Williams sidelined due to suspension for the first six weeks. If LaPorta can take advantage of that, there’s a good chance that he can continue to produce even once Williams returns. He’s as good a bet as there’s been in a few years to buck the trend of poor production from rookie TEs.

D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott

• Let’s start with the Eagles. There are only two Eagles RBs who I am targeting based on what we’ve seen in preseason so far: D’Andre Swift and Kenny Gainwell.

• Swift got the night off in Week 2, Gainwell got the night off in Week 1, but he got the night off with Boston Scott - this could’ve been a “you know the offense so take the first night off” kinda thing, but reports out of camp are indicating that Gainwell is very integrated within the first team offense.

• Rashaad Penny is getting work after Boston Scott. He can move up a bit, but it doesn’t seem obvious that he’ll be the primary early down back like I thought he would earlier in the off-season.

• With Swift getting the night off with a lot of other starters this past weekend, he’s in line to at the very least be part of a 1-2 punch, and we know his receiving ability makes him have RB1-type of upside even if he’s not overly involved on the ground.

Dameon Pierce & Devin Singletary

• I think we might be too low on Dameon Pierce guys – he played an every-down role with the first team, and was on the field for 100% of snaps with the starters. Devin Singletary didn’t come in the game until Pierce’s night was over.

• Pierce was an early down RB last year and was very solid in that role… and when you consider Devin Singletary’s usage last week in terms of him coming off the field on 3rd downs for Dare Ogunbowale, there’s a chance Pierce has a new passing down role come Week 1.

• Just more reasons to take shots on Pierce at his price. He might be the RB to grab in the 5th round where he’s going now. Don’t forget how efficient Pierce was last year as a rookie - he’s a damn good RB.

Javonte Williams & Samaje Perine

• Javonte Williams defied the odds. He’s really a true outlier in his recovery - he came back and played a significant role in a preseason game. Him and Perine split time pretty much 50/50 – in WIlliams’ first game back.

• Perine played the receiving back role - he played almost every third down snap, but Javonte saw 5 targets on 8 routes ran, with 8 opportunities total on 13 snaps with the starters. That’s absolutely amazing, and it looks like he’ll be good to go for Week 1. And you have to wonder as the season goes on, if he’s already splitting 50/50, will his role increase even more?

• Is it still kind of risky drafting Williams? Yes. There can be complications with the type of injury he had - it wasn’t just an ACL, it was an ACL, an LCL and a PCL… but it’s looking good for him right now. And if he’s going to continue to go around the 7th round, it’s not that bad.

• The other option is to just wait and grab Perine later… but A) it does seem like they want to feature Javonte for the most part and B) there isn’t a guarantee that Perine has the standalone value we think he does based on how they just used Javonte in this game. He will definitely have upside later in the year if he doesn’t have any setbacks early on.

One player to target: WR Jordan Addison

Target him as your: Low-risk WR2

• Minnesota has allowed Adam Thielen to leech fantasy value off its perennially strong offense for the past few years, and his departure couldn’t have come at a better time for Jordan Addison.

• Thielen dominated as the WR2 in each of the past three seasons, and Addison now steps right into that role which has featured at least 85 targets in each of the past three seasons (106 targets exactly in both 2022 and 2020) and 30 touchdowns combined in that same three-year span. Those are gaudy numbers, of course, but Addison just has to scrape the surface to return on investment at his WR38 price on Underdog.

• Let’s frame it this way: will a first-round wide receiver on an offense as fantasy-conducive as the Vikings’ be able to finish as at least a low WR3 / high WR4? I’m willing to bet that he has enough boom weeks to well exceed that bar, which is extremely low – lucky for us, that’s how he’s actually being drafted.

One player to avoid: WR Rashod Bateman

• The third-year wideout from Minnesota has been a popular pick in the fantasy community for a breakout in the Ravens’ shiny new offensive system, but I’m not underestimating the impact that the additions of Zay Flowers and OBJ will have on the target share distribution. Not to mention the fact that Mark Andrews does, in fact, still exist – and Bateman hasn’t yet proven that he’s a target earner in the NFL at this point in his career (he’s eclipsed ten targets just once – and that was in a game with Tyler Huntley, not Lamar Jackson, at QB).

• In addition, he’s been one of the most oft-injured players in the league since his rookie year in 2021, missing a combined 14 games over those two seasons. And while his production in early 2022 looks encouraging on the surface, those numbers are inflated by two long touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2 – he never tallied more than four receptions in a game last year.

• I do think he’s due for a better season in 2023, but at his current price above Zay Flowers, I’m happier taking a swing at the rookie six spots later than accepting the risk that comes with Bateman at a higher price tag.

As a rookie, Christian Watson played a big role in fantasy owners winning several weeks in the middle of the season, going four straight games with a TD and 21+ points as the overall WR1 in that stretch.

The season-long stats were solid for Watson, especially after a slow start, finishing his rookie season with 41 catches for 691 total yards and 9 TDs as the WR40 in PPR scoring. Unfortunately, that type of production isn’t sustainable. He saw nearly all of that production via long touchdowns, and it showed with his 32.9% TD Dependency (worst among top-40 WRs). That left him virtually unplayable with just one other game (Week 18) all season of 11+ points.

There’s no question that he’s exceeding his 66 targets he received as a rookie, likely coming closer to the 100+ target mark in his sophomore season, but the dependency on TDs for production is a major red flag for his 2023 prospects, especially with the Packers offense likely taking a step backward with the change in QB from the 2020 & 2021 MVP in Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love with just 1 career start to-date.

The talent is there, but I don’t foresee the per-touch efficiency remaining as inflated as we saw in 2022 with a regressing offense, especially with weapons like Romeo Doubs (now fully healthy), Jayden Reed (2nd Round), Luke Musgrave (2nd round), and Tucker Kraft (3rd round) all added or returning this offseason that have the potential to be redzone threats.

I would be okay with Watson as a mid-WR3 option, but it doesn’t appear that he will come close to that price as he’s being projected as a mid-WR2 (WR22) in the 4th round on ADP and as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 on ECR. If he were to fall beyond those price points into the 6th round as a value WR3 option, I will bite, but outside of that, it appears he is being overvalued due to a strong four-game stretch where he found long-TD success.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks continues his journey as an undervalued fantasy WR, this time facing stiff competition from Ceedee Lamb for targets in a very good Dallas offense. While Lamb will lead the Cowboys in targets barring injury, Cooks has a proven production profile that speaks for itself and is a testament to his consistency, both in real life and in fantasy football.

Cooks has amassed at least one season of 100+ targets with every team he’s played for in his career, including his lone season with the Patriots in 2017. He was able to produce alongside strong target competition in each of the seasons listed above (outside of 2021, where Cooks led the next-highest target earner in Houston by a whopping 71 targets).

Target competition by year (total targets):

• 2015 Saints: TE Benjamin Watson (102)

• 2017 Patriots: TE Rob Gronkowski (100)

• 2018 Rams: WR Robert Woods (127), RB Todd Gurley (79)

Cooks enters 2023 with the Cowboys on perhaps his best offense since his 2020 season with the Texans and Deshaun Watson at the helm. In what projects to be a pass-first Cowboys offense as the No. 2 target behind Ceedee Lamb (reports from training camp have suggested that Cooks will fit that role), he could very well be raring for a bounce-back year – and potentially eclipse the 100 target threshold once again.