Holdout on the Horizon for Lamb? 😟

I wonder how Amon-Ra St. Brown felt about the solar eclipse (you know, since he’s the sun god and all). Hopefully it doesn’t affect the way he plays next season…

What’s in store:

• Could a CeeDee Lamb holdout be on the horizon? 😟 With no extension imminent, he’s expected to skip voluntary workouts next week.

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling has suitors within his old division ⚡️. Word on the street is that the Chargers are interesting in signing the embattled former Chiefs WR.

• Anthony Richardson is right on track for a healthy return. 💪 A full season of Anthony Richardson is something the fantasy world deserves to see.`

• The 2024 wide receiver class in a nutshell 🥜. Faraz tells us everything we need to know about the top pass catchers in this year’s crop.

• There is a precedent for Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb to hold out of football activities as long as he doesn’t have a long-term deal, per Michael Gehlken

  • Lamb is entering the fifth and final year of his rookie deal since being drafted in 2020 and has all of the leverage in the world in negotiations as one of the game’s premier receivers. His 135 catches and 1,749 receiving yards in 2023 were both franchise records, and the twelve touchdowns from scrimmage to boot capped a historic season both in real life in in the fantasy football game log. Managers will remember his white-hot run following the Cowboys’ bye week that featured a ridiculous 28.1 PPR point per game average from Weeks 8-18, including a stretch of nine consecutive games with a touchdown from Week 10 on. Dallas is very clearly in cap hell at the moment as they attempt to navigate negotiations for what would be three blockbuster new deals for Lamb, QB Dak Prescott and edge Micah Parsons – something that could result in a delay for Lamb’s extension and, in turn, some drama as we move deeper into the offseason. Dallas is slated to begin their voluntary offseason program on April 15th of next week. The current anticipation is that Lamb is not present for those activities as he waits for a new deal. While this is far from urgent news, it’s a situation that bears monitoring as the draft and OTAs in May draw nearer.

• The Chargers are reportedly interested in recently released FA WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

  • With not a whole lot going in in the Chargers WR room at the moment, a signing in LA with Justin Herbert at quarterback would likely notch Marquez Valdes-Scantling right back into his role as a hail mary flex option any given week for 2024. This assumes, of course, that the Chargers don’t opt for one of the top receiving prospects out of the loaded 2024 class – something that is highly unlikely considering the high-profile departures of their top two weapons this offseason (Keenan Allen to Chicago and Mike Williams to New York) – and that 2023 first-round WR Quentin Johnston makes no strides towards improvement in 2024. Even with Herbert at quarterback, the Chargers are likely to implement the most run-focused approach to their offensive game plan we’ve seen in years under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, which would predictably limit an already low ceiling for a player of MVS’s caliber. MVS has yet to sign with a team since leaving Kansas City as a cap casualty and likely will have very limited value at best in all formats in 2024.

• Colts QB Anthony Richardson continues to progress through rehab from shoulder surgery, throwing ‘40 passes a day’

  • Things appear to be right on schedule for the No. 4 pick in 2023 in his recovery from a procedure on his AC joint, a welcome development from dynasty and redraft managers alike. The questions were legitimate about how quickly the freakiest athletic prospect the QB position has seen would acclimate to the NFL environment last season, but Richardson did more than answer those questions in his limited action last year. The Colts QB enters an offseason reportedly on track to be ready for all of the core offseason workouts, including OTAs later in May, ahead of his sophomore campaign with the team. One thing working in his favor: there’s been virtually zero roster turnover for Indianapolis’ offense from the 2023 season to today. The Colts are returning all of their top receiving weapons in Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs, as well as Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Barring any unforeseen setbacks, fantasy managers can proceed with drafting Richardson as the potential elite QB1 he demonstrated he can be in his four starts last year.

The big three are as elite of a group as can be. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze would all be WR1 in their own classes if they weren’t in the same one this year.

Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell have bad production profiles, but the film screams alpha WR1 potential with a little bit of work. Not slam dunks like the big three, but there’s plenty of intriguing upside.

Xavier Worthy and Troy Franklin have very good production profiles, but neither have the strength to be physical against good corners. Because of that, their usage and volume will most likely depend on their respective landing spots. It’s very possible they end up as legit vertical threats without WR1 volume – they’ve been some of the toughest evaluations for me.

Ladd McConkey has the safest floor of any wide receiver after the Big Three, with target hog upside. He does everything well across the board.

Roman Wilson and Ricky Pearsall are very good slot WRs. That’s the analysis there.

Keon Coleman is a classic non-separating contested catcher. Meanwhile, Tez Walker has all the tools of a vertical, alpha X receiver who needs a bit of refinement to put it altogether.

Xavier Legette would be a serious outlier as a 5th year breakout if he were to find real success in the NFL. His size/speed combo is very attractive, though.

Javon Baker has one of the best chances at out producing his draft capital. He’s flying way under the radar but can be very productive as a X receiver.

I have no idea what to make of Malachi Corley. He’s got ridiculous strength and after the catch ability, but didn’t do it in the Power 5. Upside is there with the right landing spot.

Also, make sure not to sleep on Malik Washington. He can be a very productive slot WR and a Day 3 gem.

I’m a fan of Brenden Rice’s game. He’s a good route runner at his size – technical and nuanced. His lack of high-end athleticism might be what holds him back.

Is it Draft Day yet?

Barely productive until he was a Super Senior. He’s an enigma because of it, but he has serious ball skills and can fly. It’s very possible he’s DK Metcalf-lite, but history of this type of late breakout is working against him.

The most polarizing WR of this draft class. You can’t deny his domination against his competition in 2023 and you can’t deny his elite athleticism at his elite size. But when you combine for 423 receiving yards in four years of college before the 1255 in your fifth year, eyebrows have to be raised. It makes a lot of sense that a bigger and older receiver would dominate against smaller and younger corners, and that’s the knock. 

I did see Legette at the Senior Bowl, and his performance during the week was up and down. The first day wasn’t great, but he bounced back in a big way on Day 2 and had a solid Day 3.

His 3.15 yards/route run during 2023 was Top-7 among the Power 5 WRs in this class, but when you move onto the career production, we’re looking at a bad profile. His combined career yards/route run and first downs/route run was the worst in this class, but his target earning ability when he was on the field was there; 0.24 targets/route run was solid, and his 23.5% career target share was more than solid.

I will say, not many WRs who fit this profile did it like Legette did it and with the way I think he can potentially fit in the NFL. Just his last year gave him a career dominator rating of 36%, which ranked 4th in this class. He has some after the catch ability, and he can dominate at the point of the catch, he’s blazing fast, but he still needs some refinement in his route running and release package. The upside is worth taking shots on, but just know that you’re up against history if you think he’ll pan out in a big way in the NFL.