The IDEAL Round to Take a QB 🏈

Death, Taxes, and Kadarius Toney doing everything he can to avoid a football field.

What’s in store:

• Mr. Irrelevant is BACK for the beginning of 2023! 🤩  Step aside, Trey Lance and Sam Darnold.

• Running Backs with the ability to appreciate QUICKLY 📈 A lot of talented running backs are an injury or a scheme change away from RB1 volume. Faraz identifies them!

• Drafting quarterbacks, made easy. ✅ Zach draws up his ideal draft range for taking a signal caller in fantasy football!

• WHICH rookie should we be leaving on waivers? 😮 There are plenty of players in promising situations, but even a top talent from this year’s draft might not be able to overcome it in year 1.

• Brock Purdy completes comeback from UCL injury, is cleared to practice in full ahead of training camp

  • After constant offseason reports speculating about who the 49ers Week 1 starter will be in 2023, the excellent news for Purdy today that controversy to bed. 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan said that Purdy would be eased back into things, throwing just two out of every three days to begin with as he’s ramped back up ahead of the new season. Assuming Purdy is fully healthy come Week 1, the 49ers offense should be in good hands and firing on all cylinders as it was at the end of 2022, when Purdy threw for over 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns in 5 starts. At an average draft position of just the QB24 as of the day of this writing, Purdy has been going undrafted in most leagues. That price is certain to increase, but the value will be there for a short while longer while the markets adjust to the news.

• Saquon Barkley gets a new 1-year deal with the Giants

  • After spending the entire offseason weighing his options, including considering holding out for some or all of the 2023 season, the Saquon Barkley was able to come to terms with the Giants on a slightly more lucrative deal than what was originally offered via the franchise tag. Saquon is now set to earn roughly a $2M signing bonus, plus another $900K in incentives, pushing the total value of his contract to near $13M this season. With Saquon now squared away, managers can get back to their regularly scheduled programming of drafting him around the 1-2 turn. The focus now shifts to Josh Jacobs, who appears to remain far apart from the Raiders in contract talks.

• Kadarius Toney wastes no time getting acquainted with Chiefs medical staff

  • Is anyone really surprised? Things went from 0 to 100 in a matter of days with Toney’s health as he graduated from having a “minor tweak” over the weekend to full blown knee surgery Tuesday morning. The timetable for his return is reportedly in the range of a few weeks at this point, and not day-to-day as he was originally reported – all bad news for Toney and his fantasy managers. On his current trajectory, Toney could be looking at missing time to open the 2023 season – something that’s guaranteed to deflate his ADP as we get closer to the start of the regular season. Team officials are already anticipating the former first round WR to miss significant time in camp, opening the door for second-year WR Skyy Moore and rookie Rashee Rice to see full snaps as early as Week 1. Toney is off the redraft board for the time being, while his dynasty stock may also feel the effects with the injury bug clearly not going away any time soon.

• Oh, and the Saints signed Jimmy Graham (?).

  • In a head scratcher of a move, the Saints decided to bring in 37-year old TE Jimmy Graham on a one-year deal for 2023. This, after signing Foster Moreau to play behind Juwan Johnson, creates an official committee in the Saints TE room, and effectively squashes any potential TE1 value Juwan Johnson may have had. While Graham himself certainly won’t be fantasy relevant, his addition will do more to hurt the existing tight ends on the Saints roster than it will benefit himself at this point. With ample target competition not only within the TE room, but on the offense as a whole, there is no longer a clear tight end to target in New Orleans in 2023.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

• Spears could step into a 3-down role for Tennessee if Henry gets banged up. He’s very capable in the receiving game, and plays bigger than his size in the run game.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

• Warren already proved to be efficient as an undrafted rookie RB last year, especially in the receiving game. If Najee gets hurt, Warren likely has a better role than Najee did, taking over on all three downs.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

• If Kenneth Walker has to miss time, Charbonnet should be able to step up in a run-first offense while not having to share early down carries. Charbonnet’s receiving chops would put him in RB1 territory.

D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

• Rashaad Penny isn’t the epitome of health, and neither is Swift, but if Penny gets banged up, Swift would assume even more work in the run game, and will likely be the Eagles goal line RB.

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

• If Alvin Kamara misses games due to injury or suspension, Miller has RB1 written all over him. He might already be the superior rusher in this backfield, and he’s definitely the preferred pass catcher over Jamaal Williams.

Samaje Perine, Denver Broncos

• Perine will likely have a solid role on all three downs with Javonte Williams limited this season, but if Williams has to miss time, Perine’s role would be upgraded to an every-down RB1.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

• It seems like Gibson is being favored in Eric Bienemy’s offense, but if Brian Robinson gets banged up, added goal line carries and early down work can be in Gibson’s cards.receiving game.

Unless you’re drafting one of the obvious top talents at the position (Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson), chances are that it’s never going to feel like the right time to take a quarterback in your draft. Sure, you can target Joe Burrow, but he comes with a hefty 4th round price tag. But if you wait until later and draft a guy like Jared Goff or Derek Carr, your upside could be limited despite a cheaper price tag, even if that player produces at a consistently solid level.

The question quickly becomes: when is the best time to draft a quarterback for fantasy football? The answer certainly depends first and foremost on the format of the league you’re playing in. For the sake of this argument, we’ll assume that we’re playing in a 1QB, full PPR format. Certain experts will tell you to nail down an elite started early in the draft, while others will champion the low positional advantage and advocate for taking one later. There’s no true correct answer, but the way that I like to build out my team, the QB sweet spot for me has settled in the 7th, 8th, and 9th rounds of drafts.

The talent that falls in this range for fantasy offers the full spectrum of quarterback archetypes - and all at affordable prices. You want a rushing quarterback? Look no further than Anthony Richardson (QB11, 9th Round). Or how about a quarterback with upside to finish Top-5? Deshaun Watson (QB9, 7-8 Turn) might be your guy. Maybe you want to shoot the moon a bit on a high volume passer with two elite weapons - Tua Tagovailoa (QB10, 8th Round) has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and was one of the best fantasy QBs when he was healthy last year. Or maybe you don’t want to take on any risk and have a quality starter week in and week out – Dak Prescott (QB12, 9th Round) or Kirk Cousins (QB12, 10th Round) might be exactly your cup of tea.

Taking a quarterback in this nice middle ground allows you to fully flesh out your skill positions (RB, WR, TE) without the lingering worry of having to use a premium pick on a quarterback. You could draft four RBs and 3 WRs to open your draft, or vice versa, or even grab an elite tight end like Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews and still have time to take 3 RBs and 3 WRs before you take a QB!

You’re also able to assess the amount of risk you want to take at QB once the rest of the board has fallen and you can gauge the amount of risk that’s already present in your roster. If you drafted up players like Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Josh Jacobs early, you might want to consider balancing some of that risk with the available security at QB in rounds 7-9 (Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, and Daniel Jones all make sense in that scenario). But if you’ve checked all your boxes with safe producers at your skill positions (such as Nick Chubb and Keenan Allen), you might have the flexibility to roll the dice at QB and shoot for upside with players like Tua and Deshaun Watson – or even Anthony Richardson!

Don’t get it twisted though – there’s nothing wrong with grabbing a Patrick Mahomes or a Jalen Hurts in rounds 2 or 3 of your draft. They’re going to produce at an elite level at the end of the day. And you can get by, too, drafting up QBs later in drafts – Justin Fields last season was a case in point. But in my draft experience, and assessing the value up and down the QB board, the best spot to draft your quarterback is in the middle of the draft, between rounds 7 and 9.

Bryce Young entered the 2023 NFL Draft as the top QB prospect from Alabama in ages, setting the school’s single-season records in passing yards (4,872) and passing TDs (47) while finishing 2nd all-time in career yards (8,356) and passing TDs (80), accomplishing everything there was to do individually (Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award, Davey O’Brien Award, Manning Award, All-American, etc.), and accomplishing everything there was team-wise outside of a National Championship.

His historic collegiate career landed him as the 1st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft where the Carolina Panthers mortgaged their future to trade up to select the former Alabama QB. While the expectations are for Young to become the franchise QB that Carolina drafted him to be, part of that massive package that Carolina sent to Chicago for the 1st overall pick was the only significant weapon the Panthers had on roster in WR DJ Moore.

Stepping into the NFL is by no means an easy task for a QB, much less for one who no longer has a bona fide WR1 on the roster. Young will likely have an uneasy transition from the college level to the pros, at least statistically, with his receiving corps consisting of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall, Jonathan Mingo (rookie), and Hayden Hurst.

On top of a sub-par supporting cast, history is not on the side of Young, at least in his rookie campaign. Over the last twenty years, 1st round QBs have finished as top-24 fantasy QBs just 40% of the time in their rookie season with those selected 1st overall finishing as top-24 QBs just 57% of the time. Top-24 is rosterable, not playable – 1st round rookies finish inside the top 15 at a rate of just 13% with QBs taken at the top pick hitting under 30% of the time.

He’ll likely be a serviceable fantasy QB in his career, but it is highly unlikely it will be in Year 1. I like him in dynasty formats as a value option if in a rebuilding mode but outside of that, I will not be prioritizing him on draft day, especially not in re-draft formats where he doesn’t appear to be anything more than a potential waiver wire/streaming option.

Check out more of Tyler’s in-depth player preview articles here!

Four wide receivers in 2022 with an average depth of target under 10 yards finished with yards per route run numbers over 2.0 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Ja’Marr Chase. All three players are undoubtedly great in their own rights, but their ability to haul in targets and create even with fewer deep shots than other WRs is notable - and they all have a very important statistic in common.

All four players, despite having some of the league-lowest average depths of target, finished as PPR WR1s in fantasy points per game in 2022. Kupp, in particular, finished as the WR1 in points per game. In contrast, not a single player among the top-10 in highest average depth of target finished as PPR WR1s in 2022 – an interesting note to consider when drafting players known for being targeted downfield.