Is Garrett Wilson still a fantasy WR1? 🛬

Down and out about your 1-3 or 0-4 fantasy team? All is not yet lost, my friend –although we’re hoping that if you’ve been following us, you’re having a better go of it than just being .500 or worse. Regardless, there’s never a bad time to make a move to improve your fantasy roster, and Faraz has a few places he’d start going into this weekend’s slate of action:

• Raiders RB Zamir White not spotted practicing on Thursday just a day after logging limited practice on Wednesday

  • The downward trend for Zamir White apparently continues. After being drafted as a potential upside starter at running back this offseason, White has seen limited utilization and chronic inefficiency crater his fantasy value through four games this year. His inability to produce has also apparently caught the attention of HC Antonio Pierce for the wrong reasons, as Pierce said earlier this week that veteran RB Alexander Mattison is deserving of more touches moving forward and that he would get them. Regardless of whether that’s coach speak or not, missing practice in the week immediately following those comments doesn’t bode well for White’s fantasy prospects going into a tough divisional clash with the Broncos. They’re calling it a groin injury for White this week, and we’d have to imagine his status for Week 5 is very much up in the air with the amount of negative press surrounding the third year back. If he would miss, Alexander Mattison would become an attractive flex option after showing that he can produce in the backfield despite operating in a less than encouraging offensive system. Even if White would start, though, it would be hard to make an argument for him to be in lineups given the matchup against the Broncos (10th-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to RBs) and Antonio Pierce’s apparent affinity for Alexander Mattison.

• Steelers RBs Jaylen Warren (knee), Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) miss practice Thursday, status for Week 5 up in the air

  • It would be the second straight week of Warren being sidelined by the knee injury since he left the game early in Week 3 against the Chargers, while Patterson would be in line to miss his first game of the season should he ultimately be ruled out. That would free up a full backfield’s worth of touches for Najee Harris, who was hilariously inefficient in last week’s game against the Colts (19 rushing yards on 13 carries, 1.3 yards per carry). The Steelers haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard by an measure through four games in 2024, but they’ll have a strong opportunity this week against a battered Cowboys defense that’s missing Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, and Daron Bland to get things moving on offense. Specifically, the matchup on the ground for Najee Harris is particularly intriguing, with the Cowboys allowing the third most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Najee clearly isn’t up to the same caliber of running back that has gashed Dallas early this season (matchups against Alvin Kamara, and Derrick Henry might be inflating their numbers just a smidge), but with both of his primary sources of competition for touches potentially missing Week 5’s game, Harris is set up as well as he’s been in a long time to capitalize on a great matchup with a full workload.

• Commanders RB Brian Robinson misses practice Thursday with knee injury for second straight day

  • Robinson was a surprise addition to the injury report earlier this week and hasn’t practiced up to the publication of this newsletter. Fantasy managers will want to pay close attention to his status in today’s practice – if he’s unable to go today, there’s a good chance that the Commanders could go into Week 5 down their top ballcarrier. That would make room for veteran RB Austin Ekeler to function as the de facto RB1 in his absence, though he’d have to be cleared of the concussion protocol between now and Sunday to be ready to go against the Browns. Of course, that RB1 role is more of a 1A role than a clear cut workhorse back (as we saw last week in Ekeler’s absence); with Ekeler out last week, the Commanders opted maintain the backfield by committee by heavily utilizing RB Jeremy McNichols alongside Robinson. It seems as though Kliff Kingsbury isn’t interested in either Robinson nor Ekeler handling any kind of bell-cow workload, which ultimately limits each back’s weekly upside significantly. However, with the Commanders leading the league in percentage of drives that end in points, there should be more than enough to go around for two running backs to be productive any given week. Ekeler would be a must start in Week 5 should Robinson miss regardless of McNichols’ presence in the timeshare.

Q: Is Garrett Wilson still a fantasy WR1?

A: Wilson’s 1.28 yards per route run is currently his lowest mark of his career, but it’s only been four games. Rodgers is looking for Wilson at a rate that is high enough to support WR1 numbers (26% target share) and the Jets are dropping back to pass at a slightly higher rate than expected (+2% dropback rate over expectation per FantasyLife’s utilization report), so there’s enough available opportunity in this system to sustain Wilson as a WR1… but until we see Wilson marry that utilization with some efficiency on a per route basis, and hopefully see things get rolling in the touchdown department, Wilson looks more like a solid WR2.

The biggest problem has been Allen Lazard, who wouldn’t be a problem on 31 of the 32 NFL offenses. The Jets just happen to have Aaron Rodgers at QB, though, so Lazard has been able to drain a 17% target share from the offense. Lazard has also overperformed based on fantasy points over expectation – he’s averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game despite his expected total based on his utilization being 10.5. And of course, Garrett Wilson is underperforming based on his utilization – his 11.2 actual points per game are well short of his 14.3 expected points per game.

We didn’t think there would be a clear No. 2 in this offense coming into the season, and Mike Williams has always been a complement to a true No. 1 throughout his career. But with Lazard being a surprise addition to pass catchers we need to consider, Wilson hasn’t been the funnel for targets like we expected him to be. And to be honest, I don’t know if Lazard is going away – he’s been above 85% route participation in three of four games this season, and over 75% in all four. If he sticks around, then Wilson isn’t going to be a fantasy WR1 the rest of the way.

Q: Is Devon Achane still a viable fantasy starter, or is it time to move on?

A: The way I look at the Dolphins offense is that these are excellent fantasy players… I mean, Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane were the most efficient players at their positions last year, and Jaylen Waddle wasn’t far behind, either. And in Week 1, all three of them came through – Tyreek Hill was the WR4, Waddle was the WR16, and Achane was the RB3. Their utilization and talent matched what we’d been projecting all offseason, but then Tua had his concussion and things went off the rails. But in reality, would we be panicking this much about the Dolphins weapons if this were a calf strain or a shoulder injury that sent Tua to IR? I don’t really think we would be. I understand that it’s never reassuring to hear talk about retirement being thrown around, but as far as we know, it looks like Tua is going to be back as soon as he’s eligible to return. So for me, it’s never been a question about ‘is De’Von Achane a viable fantasy starter?’ He’s absolutely a viable fantasy starter, and so are Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But it’s become ‘can the Dolphins weapons produce without a starting quarterback?’

Historically, the answer has been yes, but this season Mike McDaniel just has no answers – their offense was abysmal against the Titans and the Bills without Tua. They’re averaging 7.5 points per game over their last two games. But these are excellent fantasy players who are trapped in a bad situation – and remember, the light at the end of the tunnel is already there. Tua will be back potentially in Week 8, and there’s a bye in there for the Dolphins as well in Week 6 - you weren’t going to have to worry about having these guys in your lineup that week anyway.

So no, if I have any of these Dolphins players, I’m not moving them. Not only would you be selling low, but you’d also be throwing out what could be league-winning (or at this point, league saving) production once Tua is back – because if he stays healthy, we’ve seen that Achane, Hill, and Waddle are all capable of coming through at their ADPs.